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I agree with you
[quote=Arraya]There is NO recovery next year. We should be in for the largest economic contraction for at least hundred years and it will be global.[/quote]

I believe that IS the most likely scenario but in this case – what do you think would happen to the rates and the house prices in the next FEW years? I would think they’d keep the rates low, no more than 1-2% increase in the next FEW years, and the prices might fall a little. Any other thoughts for THIS scenario?

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[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

[quote DWCAP]location location, and a billion other factors pay into it, so it isnt an exact math formula. So you are correct. If the economy was adding jobs and humming along, sales would rise and prop prices too even if interest rates were increasing.
[/quote]
That’s exactly what I was thinking – particularly in those areas (in which I am looking, too). If the economy starts to recover, such areas (good schools, etc) that are pretty well sought after, may not be worth the wait for lower price that may or may not come with *slightly* higher rates.

IF the economy starts recovering, which is still a pretty big IF.

IMHO, rates are not going to increase by a LOT FAST in the next couple years so the pressure on the prices in those areas will be rather small. In LONG term, it will get there, but is it worth renting for more than another year or so?

Edit: I don’t believe a tsunami is coming anymore…sorry… the government has lots of means to keep the ‘landing’ slow coming, relatively orderly at all costs…

[Scarlett]

Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….

[Scarlett]

Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….

[Scarlett]

Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….

[Scarlett]

Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….

[Scarlett]

Forgive me for a dumb question, theoretical speculation is great, but why not envision a scenarion in which the rate does go up 2-4%, but guess what, the prices don’t go down nearly as much to make the waiting for higher rate/lower price worth your while? (in which case it would be better to buy now w/ 20% down – not talking large downs). I am just asking, isn’t that a good possibility? Is that a carved in stone rule??

We’ve already seen that the overall prices didn’t fall back to fundamentals (in the areas mentioned by OP) and they are rising yet again. Just a couple % increase in interest rate may slow then down or stop them, but may not lower the price much….in these areas (and 20% down)…. I am just saying….

[Scarlett]

I am sorry but I did not gain from selling my house before the crash. I bought in spring 2004, you see. I actually lost a little. Sure, it could have been worse, if I’d have sold later.

It seems like it might not be so bad to jump in now, so I guess it’s really not worth to wait to make 3 years of renting.

No, I am not in military.
Houses prices are lower than when I sold, but not *that* much lower…

[Scarlett]

I am sorry but I did not gain from selling my house before the crash. I bought in spring 2004, you see. I actually lost a little. Sure, it could have been worse, if I’d have sold later.

It seems like it might not be so bad to jump in now, so I guess it’s really not worth to wait to make 3 years of renting.

No, I am not in military.
Houses prices are lower than when I sold, but not *that* much lower…

[Scarlett]

I am sorry but I did not gain from selling my house before the crash. I bought in spring 2004, you see. I actually lost a little. Sure, it could have been worse, if I’d have sold later.

It seems like it might not be so bad to jump in now, so I guess it’s really not worth to wait to make 3 years of renting.

No, I am not in military.
Houses prices are lower than when I sold, but not *that* much lower…

[Scarlett]

I am sorry but I did not gain from selling my house before the crash. I bought in spring 2004, you see. I actually lost a little. Sure, it could have been worse, if I’d have sold later.

It seems like it might not be so bad to jump in now, so I guess it’s really not worth to wait to make 3 years of renting.

No, I am not in military.
Houses prices are lower than when I sold, but not *that* much lower…

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