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scaredyclassic
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]Next point to address is TG personal experience. He was one of us following things much closer than most. He’s a sharp, opportunistic guy and his expereince does not match the average. Some people always beat the market. He caught the bottom and got himself a sweet deal in a market that was particularly hard hit and overshot what it should have.
More reasonable price for that was probably more like the mid 300’s vis a vis rent vs buy. Then he invested in improvements on a house that was not cared for. Fake lawns dont grow on trees or lawns nor does anything else he put into making his house his own. End of the day a more typical base price for the cost of that house as it is should be closer to $400K.
That was 13 years ago. At just over 5% /yr a house will double in 13 years. Thats only marginally more than what we have truly expereinced in inflation. Time passed and we got older. Interest rates are almost half of what they were back then also.
The fact that houses have more than doubled in 13 years isnt so astounding as to how it happened and usually does.
We would like to think homes go up gradually over time in a even climb. They dont! At least not here! They muddle, they climb slowly than they gap up astromically in a very short period of time. It happened between Nov 2003 and Feb 2004. It happened again between Nov 2020 ans Feb 2021. Its the way things work here.
I will happily take your bubble bet right now! Bubbles burst they dont slowly deflate. Im not sayiing prices wont slow, flatten or pullback but barring a cataclysmic event like a natural disaster or foreign invasion there will be no burst
About 10 years ago I wrote about what I thought would happen and it did. There are 3 main levers. Passage of time, Interest rates and inflation that will make what seemed unreasonabvle pricing levels reasonable again. The last time it was mostly time and interest rates with a little inflation. This round it inflation and time with sustained low interest rates bring us back into balance.
There will be better opportunties ahead but anyone expecting 20% + declines in the better areas of SD will be sadly disappointed. I dont follow TG’s area as closely but know prices there have not gone up there close to what they have here. They dont have the desireability up there to the big money relocators we have here but folks from here will increasiong get pushed up there to commute. So I’ll go with no more than 20% there as well.
Betting window is open![/quote]
A thought I have often while driving
Traffic seems to me to represent financial markets.
Often it’s just slow. Or stopped. Sometimes traffic races along.
Some idiots go too fast, or have bad luck, and lose it all in a crash. Excessive lane changing, like excessive trading, often ends poorly.
Basically, everyone’s tooling along at various rates on varied roads. The roads are more quickly repaired now, so the bubble won’t burst.
Participant[quote=temeculaguy]I will happily call it a bubble right now. Mark my words as I will link this post in the future. The invisible hand has been stymied and nothing good ever comes from that, unless inflation counteracts it. Anecdotal case in point, my son and his wife have lived with me rent free through the pandemic and have a six figure down payment. Yes they are mid to late 20 somethings with degrees and a low six figure combined income and they cannot buy a starter home in Temecula. The last time this happened it was 2006 and we all know how that turned out. Haircuts are coming, the two freshly minted teachers rule is back in play, when two freshly minted teachers cannot buy a condo the bubble bursts, exhurbs get it first and gt it the worst, I smell Deja Vu! I like my house, just signed contracts for solar and tesla powerwalls, already got a fake lawn so I’m staying put but I’ll pick up a rental or two in the next crash, your results may vary. But thee current valuations are not sustainable.
The house I paid 270 for at the bottom in 2008 is worth 700-800, you have got to be kidding me, 500 maybe.[/quote]
It’s beautiful they can live with you.
Why should they buy? Stay at TGs place, stack cash, retire at 40!
Participant[quote=svelte][quote=an]
Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.
[/quote]The stock market crashed in the 70s.
[img_assist|nid=27356|title=December 1972 SP500|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=297]
[quote=an]
We have never ever before talk about up to $10T in stimulus. I don’t think it’ll stop at $10T either. [/quote]Perhaps, but I’m not convinced everything that Biden has proposed will actually be passed.[/quote]
things must be frothy if scaredy is contemplating taking on more debt. My mortgage is tiny and refinanced at 2.5, but it makes perfect sense to me to take a recent offer of 300K extra cash out, refi the whole mess at 30 years at 2.625%, and dollar cost average the proceeds into reits, gold and international stocks over the next 36 months.
sure seems likely from my distorted vantage point now that those assets will be more than 26.25% higher 10 years from now, or really any asset will be higher 10 years from now. it is almost hard to visualize a longlasting crash. even I, a pessimist that bums out the other pessimists, didn’t sell when the pandemic hit, just kept buying. I was like, eh, nothings real anyway. i capitulate to insanity.
not that I’ll actually do it, but it seems like a logical thing to do. which means it’s probably insane. the more likely thing I’ll do is pay off my stupid mortgage. stupid.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Good to see you post again TG,
Yea I agree sort of but right now “NOTHING” is allowed to crash. I kind of think as soon as (or if) the stimulus sugar high ends things may crash.But I do see two things that will give this a few more years yet to run IMO.
1) We are still way underbuilt so that may keep this going a few more years.
2) I think inflation will have a much larger roll to play this time so “If” they decide to end the stimulus sugar high, the crash will not be as large as last time.
I still think the last time was a once in a life time event.
One more #
3) The PTB are trying to pass a 15-25K first time buyer grant (yet more sugar LOL), and the loans being made now are not (yet) nearly as crazy as last time (still got a few years IMO).[/quote]There will be no crash in the 2020s. Financing is normal. Poorer people, including teachers, will rent. Money will only flow upward. wages will not keep pace with inflation, making wage earners poorer. This is the trend and it will continue. The next crash may not be in my lifetime. It will probably be the result of some unexpected catastrophe, perhaps environmental.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Matt Foley[/quote]
No way. he’s so fucking cool. 81. still partying. got tons of chicks. totally free. dude was an inspiration
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic]Also, what abput the riff raff.[/quote]
The Villages are calling you and Econ Prof
DEFINITELY want to see that movie!!!..there’s a writer, carl hiassen, who writes about various dirtbags, real estate developpers, criminals, weirdos in florida, fiction, he’s funny, ive only read SKINNY DIP, made me firmly commit to NEVER moving to florida, even though it was comedic fiction.[/quote]
Just finished SOME KIND OF HEAVEN, dark documentary set in the villages, Florida.
Five stars. Really well done. Dennis Dean, the 81 year old van dwelling Playboy steals the show. Rock star performance. Guy makes me wonder what the hell I’ve been worrying about. Amazing performance!
Participant[quote=sdrealtor][quote=sdduuuude][quote=sdrealtor]Nobody wants to live in Tucson[/quote]
Tucson is a great place to be from.[/quote]
That’s what I always say about the Philadelphia area[/quote]
Brooklyn was the nation’s breeding ground.
ParticipantI may have a mental problem tho.
I hate using new things. Sometimes I let them sit a while in their newness.
I only feel comfortable using old things, even if items cheap.
Participanti just prefer mine messed up. i loved my old honda civic because it was dented and scraped on virtually every panel. my wife gets everything fixed right away on her car, and it just seems absurd to me. take the cash, live with the bumper!once you give in to the entropy, you dont have to worry about subsequent damage. i just dont see how it makes any difference whatsoever. plus I actually like the thrashed old car look. my 2012 accord actually looks relatively clean, a bit too clean for my taste, except for a hole in the bumper. maybe i drive better?
word of the day:
Beausage
Beauty by usage.
Beausage sounds French but it’s not; instead it’s a synthetic combination of the words beauty and usage, and describes the beauty that comes with using something.
Beausage is:* Roman amphitheater steps whose faces are worn away by the tread of thousands and thousands of shoes
* Stone chips on the hood of a Ferrari 250 which has been run hard and put away wet
* A bike seat whose adapted form reflects that of its owner’s posterior
* The look and feel of the cockpit of the old Mercedes pictured above (a jumble of replacement gauges and parts, obviously used a lot) — that’s 91 years of beausage!
by Bausage Guy September 30, 2005ParticipantI can see that. Sounds potentially invigorating.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler][quote=sdduuuude]I wonder if “snowbirding” will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.
Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities – one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?
Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.[/quote]I think actually a condo would work better than a SFH in this type of case (Need someone to look after it while your gone for months at a time).
Although in general I am against owning condos.[/quote]
One nice van.
ParticipantToddler babies
Participant10k babies gnawing dead skin from feet
ParticipantI prefer my car damaged.
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