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August 11, 2010 at 2:26 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #589598August 11, 2010 at 2:26 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #590133
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=Eugene]
It does not matter how much money the Fed is going to spend buying Treasuries, if the government is not willing to spend that money. The evidence so far is that every billion dollars of additional government spending has to face an uphill battle in the Congress. Come November, Democrats will probably lose 6 to 8 seats in the Senate and we can forget about any additional stimulus.
[/quote]This is not relevant… the government doesn’t need to increase its spending for the mechanism I described to increase the amount of money in the economy.
August 11, 2010 at 2:26 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #590241Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=Eugene]
It does not matter how much money the Fed is going to spend buying Treasuries, if the government is not willing to spend that money. The evidence so far is that every billion dollars of additional government spending has to face an uphill battle in the Congress. Come November, Democrats will probably lose 6 to 8 seats in the Senate and we can forget about any additional stimulus.
[/quote]This is not relevant… the government doesn’t need to increase its spending for the mechanism I described to increase the amount of money in the economy.
August 11, 2010 at 2:26 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #590550Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=Eugene]
It does not matter how much money the Fed is going to spend buying Treasuries, if the government is not willing to spend that money. The evidence so far is that every billion dollars of additional government spending has to face an uphill battle in the Congress. Come November, Democrats will probably lose 6 to 8 seats in the Senate and we can forget about any additional stimulus.
[/quote]This is not relevant… the government doesn’t need to increase its spending for the mechanism I described to increase the amount of money in the economy.
August 11, 2010 at 12:32 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #589414Rich ToscanoKeymaster“Headline CPI” = CPI including food and energy
August 11, 2010 at 12:32 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #589508Rich ToscanoKeymaster“Headline CPI” = CPI including food and energy
August 11, 2010 at 12:32 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #590043Rich ToscanoKeymaster“Headline CPI” = CPI including food and energy
August 11, 2010 at 12:32 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #590151Rich ToscanoKeymaster“Headline CPI” = CPI including food and energy
August 11, 2010 at 12:32 PM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #590460Rich ToscanoKeymaster“Headline CPI” = CPI including food and energy
Rich ToscanoKeymasterINTJ… haven’t taken it for a while but iirc I was pretty strongly expressed in all the categories.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterINTJ… haven’t taken it for a while but iirc I was pretty strongly expressed in all the categories.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterINTJ… haven’t taken it for a while but iirc I was pretty strongly expressed in all the categories.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterINTJ… haven’t taken it for a while but iirc I was pretty strongly expressed in all the categories.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterINTJ… haven’t taken it for a while but iirc I was pretty strongly expressed in all the categories.
August 11, 2010 at 8:59 AM in reply to: Shiller: US could likely to fall into deflationary spiral ala Japan #589878Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=Arraya]
Differences:-Though, their basic definitions are the same, deflationists expand their definition of money
-Power of the bond market to curtail serious “printing”
-effectiveness of printing
[/quote]That is an excellent summary of the differing assumptions between me and the long-term deflationists. As you might expect given where I land on this issue, I think their assumptions are incorrect.
1. They have actually radically changed the definition of money to include all money AND credit. Money and credit are two completely different factors and summing them into one monolithic statistic makes no sense (not to mention hopelessly muddying up the debate by unilaterally fabricating new definitions of terms).
2. So far, the Fed has printed about a trillion and a half dollars, and the bond market has not objected at all.
3. If the Fed monetizes assets, that can get money into the real economy (eg, if it buys Treasuries, that gives new money to the govt which then spends it into the economy). Also, as with #2, the data says otherwise: they printed money in 09 and the consumer price deflation ended. Printing money isn’t “effective” in terms of making things better, but it can most certainly be “effective” in terms of ending deflation.
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