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Rich ToscanoKeymasterI unpublished it. Someone was posting personal information about someone else who didn’t want it posted. It got to the point where it would have been too hard to pick through all the individual comments to delete the offending ones, so I hid the whole thing.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterHoling yourself up in an office with stack of briefing books doesn’t count as “work?”
As for him cutting Geithner out of decisions, that’s the best news I’ve heard all day.
October 5, 2011 at 9:04 AM in reply to: It’s going to get much worse…there is no escape (ECRI) #730078Rich ToscanoKeymasterIn the interest of getting back to the topic at hand, I don’t have much time this morning, but to the folks discussing wage inflation and general inflation, remember to consider real vs. nominal. You could have nominal wage inflation in a weak economy, simply due to more currency in circulation (ie the currency being worth less). But due to the weak economy, real wages could be dropping, even as they rise in nominal terms.
October 5, 2011 at 9:02 AM in reply to: It’s going to get much worse…there is no escape (ECRI) #730077Rich ToscanoKeymasterLet’s get this thread back on track, please…
Rich ToscanoKeymasterCome to think of it, that’s only updated every 6 months I think… so maybe not so timely.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterWould the rent component of the CPI fit the bill?
October 3, 2011 at 10:05 PM in reply to: It’s going to get much worse…there is no escape (ECRI) #729997Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=patientrenter]Between you and Rich himself, I can at least see that my own crazy minority view of what is going on is not completely unique. And you are both far more articulate. Thanks![/quote]
Thanks PR, but you undersell your own eloquence… in fact, just before I read the above comment, I read the following one from the “No Rise in Home Prices” thread, and thought it was incredibly well stated:
http://piggington.com/no_rise_in_home_prices_until_2020#comment-194428
October 3, 2011 at 4:05 PM in reply to: It’s going to get much worse…there is no escape (ECRI) #729985Rich ToscanoKeymasterGood counter from my favorite econ blogger (not a direct counter, that is, just a different indicator giving a different signal):
Though he thinks that the reflexivity of the ECRI call itself could possibly be enough to push things into recession:
Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=jpinpb][img_assist|nid=15409|title=CS chart|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=76]
Really. I will not underestimate the greed of people, but if we ever get to those highs ever again in however many years, it will be amazing. Nine years only?[/quote]
JP, your chart shows inflation-adjusted prices. The forecast in question involves nominal prices.
In San Diego, prices are down a bit less than 40% from the peak (in aggregate per CS) so this implies an average price growth rate of about 5.5% per year over the following 9 years. This does seem a bit optimistic but it’s not completely out of whack (especially considering that homes in aggregate are slightly undervalued at this point).
Personally I think it’s silly to predict the nominal price of anything 9 years down the road, since I do not believe that historical assumptions about inflation will apply over this time period.
October 2, 2011 at 11:14 AM in reply to: It’s going to get much worse…there is no escape (ECRI) #729960Rich ToscanoKeymasterHere are my thoughts in brief:
Yes, I still think there will be a funding crisis. As ever, I don’t pretend to know when.
Renewed recession fears along with Euro panic is obviously driving money into US govt debt and could continue to do so for some time (in fact that seems likely, based on investor “habits”). But then again, the harm to the US’ fiscal/debt situation resulting from a recession (lower revenue, higher spending), could be a potential catalyst, if it were a sudden and steep enough deterioration to jolt investor confidence down the road.
Recession typically reduces endogenous inflation pressures. The exogenous inflation pressure will happen if/when the funding crisis happens.
Overall I would say that my view on what will eventually happen has not changed. But the path to get there now obviously includes a renewed “flight to quality” (cough). How long that lasts, I do not know.
September 30, 2011 at 1:57 PM in reply to: It’s going to get much worse…there is no escape (ECRI) #729924Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=pri_dk]
So we can’t use the “economists have predicted 8 of the past 3 recessions” joke?
Bummer.[/quote]
Haha… in this case, we can’t, because ECRI has been real good about avoiding false positives fwiw.
September 30, 2011 at 12:52 PM in reply to: It’s going to get much worse…there is no escape (ECRI) #729914Rich ToscanoKeymasterECRI has a very good track record… I take them quite seriously.
September 28, 2011 at 6:33 PM in reply to: A Chronological Listing of News Headlines from the Last Housing Bubble #729864Rich ToscanoKeymaster[quote=ctr70]1991-1996 was another time people though California real estate was finished and would never come back. I think 1996 was more like the bottom. But it was still really cheap in San Diego even up to 2000. If we say 2008 was year 1 of crash, that puts us at about late 1994 right now.[/quote]
If memory serves, 1996 was the nominal bottom and 1997 was the bottom in real terms. That’s in aggregate, of course it could differ by area.
Home prices peaked in late 05/early 06, so I don’t think it’s correct to use 2008 as year 1 of the crash. The 1990 market peaked in spring, so I’d say 2006 is equivalent to 1990. That puts us equivalent to 1995, for what it’s worth.
Rich ToscanoKeymasterThanks afx… you are always there to lend a hand. 😉
Yall can always email me if you see any spam, I can report them to the spam filter software and hopefully help it to keep up with their trickery.
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