[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks Bugs, good point… I generally tried to avoid nominal decline forecasts because I thought (and still think) inflation was such a wildcard. When pressed, my policy was to make a lot of disclaimers about inflation and then guess for a decline of about 1/3, or 30-40%, depending on my mood. (Not sure where that 25% figure came from).

The forecast I was always more confident giving was that prices would fall at least 50% in terms of incomes.

Thanks,

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks everyone for the kind words… I am very gratified that the site has helped people. (One minor correction, though… I didn’t actually get into the financial biz until after I started the site. 🙂

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks everyone for the kind words… I am very gratified that the site has helped people. (One minor correction, though… I didn’t actually get into the financial biz until after I started the site. 🙂

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks everyone for the kind words… I am very gratified that the site has helped people. (One minor correction, though… I didn’t actually get into the financial biz until after I started the site. 🙂

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks everyone for the kind words… I am very gratified that the site has helped people. (One minor correction, though… I didn’t actually get into the financial biz until after I started the site. 🙂

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Thanks everyone for the kind words… I am very gratified that the site has helped people. (One minor correction, though… I didn’t actually get into the financial biz until after I started the site. 🙂

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Well said, CA Renter. While I personally would not use the term “bubble” (as to me that connotes a speculative element), I think rents can overshoot sustainable levels(and probably have).

I think #2 in the first list is especially important. If one landlord tries to get higher rent because his carrying costs are higher, he’s out of luck. But if the carrying costs for the entire city go up in aggregate, then asking rents will go up in aggregate too.

Rents declined during the last downturn — this surely was exacerbated by the job losses but the decline in landlord carrying costs might have been a factor too. For the various reasons outlined in other posts, I suspect that rents will stagnate or decline in inflation-adjusted terms.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Well said, CA Renter. While I personally would not use the term “bubble” (as to me that connotes a speculative element), I think rents can overshoot sustainable levels(and probably have).

I think #2 in the first list is especially important. If one landlord tries to get higher rent because his carrying costs are higher, he’s out of luck. But if the carrying costs for the entire city go up in aggregate, then asking rents will go up in aggregate too.

Rents declined during the last downturn — this surely was exacerbated by the job losses but the decline in landlord carrying costs might have been a factor too. For the various reasons outlined in other posts, I suspect that rents will stagnate or decline in inflation-adjusted terms.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Well said, CA Renter. While I personally would not use the term “bubble” (as to me that connotes a speculative element), I think rents can overshoot sustainable levels(and probably have).

I think #2 in the first list is especially important. If one landlord tries to get higher rent because his carrying costs are higher, he’s out of luck. But if the carrying costs for the entire city go up in aggregate, then asking rents will go up in aggregate too.

Rents declined during the last downturn — this surely was exacerbated by the job losses but the decline in landlord carrying costs might have been a factor too. For the various reasons outlined in other posts, I suspect that rents will stagnate or decline in inflation-adjusted terms.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Well said, CA Renter. While I personally would not use the term “bubble” (as to me that connotes a speculative element), I think rents can overshoot sustainable levels(and probably have).

I think #2 in the first list is especially important. If one landlord tries to get higher rent because his carrying costs are higher, he’s out of luck. But if the carrying costs for the entire city go up in aggregate, then asking rents will go up in aggregate too.

Rents declined during the last downturn — this surely was exacerbated by the job losses but the decline in landlord carrying costs might have been a factor too. For the various reasons outlined in other posts, I suspect that rents will stagnate or decline in inflation-adjusted terms.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Well said, CA Renter. While I personally would not use the term “bubble” (as to me that connotes a speculative element), I think rents can overshoot sustainable levels(and probably have).

I think #2 in the first list is especially important. If one landlord tries to get higher rent because his carrying costs are higher, he’s out of luck. But if the carrying costs for the entire city go up in aggregate, then asking rents will go up in aggregate too.

Rents declined during the last downturn — this surely was exacerbated by the job losses but the decline in landlord carrying costs might have been a factor too. For the various reasons outlined in other posts, I suspect that rents will stagnate or decline in inflation-adjusted terms.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Yes, while flattered to be included in the article I was quite shocked by that characterization of piggington. The articles I write primarily concern the economics of the housing bubble and its aftermath — they have nothing at all to do with either blaming realtors or celebrating peoples’ misfortunes.

Thanks very much for the supportive comments, nostradamus and others, they are greatly appreciated. Thanks also for being polite to the article’s author, as he seemed very nice and I’m sure this is just a misunderstanding.

Have a good weekend yall…

Rich

[Author]

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