[Rich Toscano]

Typing this on the road from my crackberry – let’s see how this goes (haven’t tried it before).

I remember krugman criticizing greenspan in 04 for starting to raise rates TOO SOON. By that time the fed’s prolonged period of super low rates had already caused massive inflation in home prices but krugman was begging for more. The point being that his track record for predicting (or even identifying) the inflationary effects of loose fed policy is poor.

As for his article, its the usual inflation risk-denier stuff and there’s nothing in there that isn’t addressed in my “us govt will not choose deflation” article linked to at the upper right, with the “us not going down japans road” article going deeper into why his japan comparison is erroneous (using data, as opposed to krugman’s generalizations which imply, wrongly, that japan’s policy response was similar to ours).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Typing this on the road from my crackberry – let’s see how this goes (haven’t tried it before).

I remember krugman criticizing greenspan in 04 for starting to raise rates TOO SOON. By that time the fed’s prolonged period of super low rates had already caused massive inflation in home prices but krugman was begging for more. The point being that his track record for predicting (or even identifying) the inflationary effects of loose fed policy is poor.

As for his article, its the usual inflation risk-denier stuff and there’s nothing in there that isn’t addressed in my “us govt will not choose deflation” article linked to at the upper right, with the “us not going down japans road” article going deeper into why his japan comparison is erroneous (using data, as opposed to krugman’s generalizations which imply, wrongly, that japan’s policy response was similar to ours).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Typing this on the road from my crackberry – let’s see how this goes (haven’t tried it before).

I remember krugman criticizing greenspan in 04 for starting to raise rates TOO SOON. By that time the fed’s prolonged period of super low rates had already caused massive inflation in home prices but krugman was begging for more. The point being that his track record for predicting (or even identifying) the inflationary effects of loose fed policy is poor.

As for his article, its the usual inflation risk-denier stuff and there’s nothing in there that isn’t addressed in my “us govt will not choose deflation” article linked to at the upper right, with the “us not going down japans road” article going deeper into why his japan comparison is erroneous (using data, as opposed to krugman’s generalizations which imply, wrongly, that japan’s policy response was similar to ours).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

Typing this on the road from my crackberry – let’s see how this goes (haven’t tried it before).

I remember krugman criticizing greenspan in 04 for starting to raise rates TOO SOON. By that time the fed’s prolonged period of super low rates had already caused massive inflation in home prices but krugman was begging for more. The point being that his track record for predicting (or even identifying) the inflationary effects of loose fed policy is poor.

As for his article, its the usual inflation risk-denier stuff and there’s nothing in there that isn’t addressed in my “us govt will not choose deflation” article linked to at the upper right, with the “us not going down japans road” article going deeper into why his japan comparison is erroneous (using data, as opposed to krugman’s generalizations which imply, wrongly, that japan’s policy response was similar to ours).

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=briansd1]
For a local story and about journalists…. I remember Scott Lewis of Voice of San Diego, while quoting Lew Breeze (a local Realtor), disclosing that Mr. Breeze was his Realtor; so I’m assuming that Scott Lewis bought downtown. And we all know how the peak buyers Downtown are doing.
[/quote]

This is how rumors get started… you are making some pretty big leaps there.

Here are the facts: Scott and his wife owned a place in Little Italy and he sold (for which one might also use a realtor) more or less at the peak.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=briansd1]
For a local story and about journalists…. I remember Scott Lewis of Voice of San Diego, while quoting Lew Breeze (a local Realtor), disclosing that Mr. Breeze was his Realtor; so I’m assuming that Scott Lewis bought downtown. And we all know how the peak buyers Downtown are doing.
[/quote]

This is how rumors get started… you are making some pretty big leaps there.

Here are the facts: Scott and his wife owned a place in Little Italy and he sold (for which one might also use a realtor) more or less at the peak.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=briansd1]
For a local story and about journalists…. I remember Scott Lewis of Voice of San Diego, while quoting Lew Breeze (a local Realtor), disclosing that Mr. Breeze was his Realtor; so I’m assuming that Scott Lewis bought downtown. And we all know how the peak buyers Downtown are doing.
[/quote]

This is how rumors get started… you are making some pretty big leaps there.

Here are the facts: Scott and his wife owned a place in Little Italy and he sold (for which one might also use a realtor) more or less at the peak.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=briansd1]
For a local story and about journalists…. I remember Scott Lewis of Voice of San Diego, while quoting Lew Breeze (a local Realtor), disclosing that Mr. Breeze was his Realtor; so I’m assuming that Scott Lewis bought downtown. And we all know how the peak buyers Downtown are doing.
[/quote]

This is how rumors get started… you are making some pretty big leaps there.

Here are the facts: Scott and his wife owned a place in Little Italy and he sold (for which one might also use a realtor) more or less at the peak.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=briansd1]
For a local story and about journalists…. I remember Scott Lewis of Voice of San Diego, while quoting Lew Breeze (a local Realtor), disclosing that Mr. Breeze was his Realtor; so I’m assuming that Scott Lewis bought downtown. And we all know how the peak buyers Downtown are doing.
[/quote]

This is how rumors get started… you are making some pretty big leaps there.

Here are the facts: Scott and his wife owned a place in Little Italy and he sold (for which one might also use a realtor) more or less at the peak.

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=gverdi]Anybody here still remembers the
“San Diego Real Estate Chrono-Collapsometer ”
and Professor Piggington?

http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:0W9xBdhnyWkJ:www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2004/1018.html+Prof+piggington&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
http://www.rbcpa.com/PiggingtonMania.pdf

In those days there were no logins … no ids …

Rich, I was so happy to find your articles since in late 2004 I was considered a “lunatic” when I was telling to some people that real estate cannot go up forever …
Good old days …[/quote]

Ha ha… gverdi, you’ve dug up some serious old stuff there. That second link was the original “bubble primer”. This was later expanded a bit into the two-part primer on the current site.

The first link was basically the same article, but with some bizarre rhetorical flourishes (notably the electrode motif) inserted by the Financial Sense editor.

Pretty funny…

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=gverdi]Anybody here still remembers the
“San Diego Real Estate Chrono-Collapsometer ”
and Professor Piggington?

http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:0W9xBdhnyWkJ:www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2004/1018.html+Prof+piggington&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
http://www.rbcpa.com/PiggingtonMania.pdf

In those days there were no logins … no ids …

Rich, I was so happy to find your articles since in late 2004 I was considered a “lunatic” when I was telling to some people that real estate cannot go up forever …
Good old days …[/quote]

Ha ha… gverdi, you’ve dug up some serious old stuff there. That second link was the original “bubble primer”. This was later expanded a bit into the two-part primer on the current site.

The first link was basically the same article, but with some bizarre rhetorical flourishes (notably the electrode motif) inserted by the Financial Sense editor.

Pretty funny…

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=gverdi]Anybody here still remembers the
“San Diego Real Estate Chrono-Collapsometer ”
and Professor Piggington?

http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:0W9xBdhnyWkJ:www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2004/1018.html+Prof+piggington&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
http://www.rbcpa.com/PiggingtonMania.pdf

In those days there were no logins … no ids …

Rich, I was so happy to find your articles since in late 2004 I was considered a “lunatic” when I was telling to some people that real estate cannot go up forever …
Good old days …[/quote]

Ha ha… gverdi, you’ve dug up some serious old stuff there. That second link was the original “bubble primer”. This was later expanded a bit into the two-part primer on the current site.

The first link was basically the same article, but with some bizarre rhetorical flourishes (notably the electrode motif) inserted by the Financial Sense editor.

Pretty funny…

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=gverdi]Anybody here still remembers the
“San Diego Real Estate Chrono-Collapsometer ”
and Professor Piggington?

http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:0W9xBdhnyWkJ:www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2004/1018.html+Prof+piggington&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
http://www.rbcpa.com/PiggingtonMania.pdf

In those days there were no logins … no ids …

Rich, I was so happy to find your articles since in late 2004 I was considered a “lunatic” when I was telling to some people that real estate cannot go up forever …
Good old days …[/quote]

Ha ha… gverdi, you’ve dug up some serious old stuff there. That second link was the original “bubble primer”. This was later expanded a bit into the two-part primer on the current site.

The first link was basically the same article, but with some bizarre rhetorical flourishes (notably the electrode motif) inserted by the Financial Sense editor.

Pretty funny…

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=gverdi]Anybody here still remembers the
“San Diego Real Estate Chrono-Collapsometer ”
and Professor Piggington?

http://209.85.173.132/search?q=cache:0W9xBdhnyWkJ:www.financialsense.com/editorials/reality/2004/1018.html+Prof+piggington&cd=7&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us
http://www.rbcpa.com/PiggingtonMania.pdf

In those days there were no logins … no ids …

Rich, I was so happy to find your articles since in late 2004 I was considered a “lunatic” when I was telling to some people that real estate cannot go up forever …
Good old days …[/quote]

Ha ha… gverdi, you’ve dug up some serious old stuff there. That second link was the original “bubble primer”. This was later expanded a bit into the two-part primer on the current site.

The first link was basically the same article, but with some bizarre rhetorical flourishes (notably the electrode motif) inserted by the Financial Sense editor.

Pretty funny…

Rich

[Rich Toscano]

TG, you are too kind! Thanks for the awesome compliments.

Duuuude, just reread that article you linked to — that was a pretty funny one. The decline in humor isn’t an issue of licensing, though… I think it’s two things. One is that at some point I recognized that I was starting to be taken seriously as an analyst, and so I eased back on the mockery/silliness throttle a bit to ease that transition. This sounds all sell-out-y now, but it was so brutal how the RE bears were completely ignored back then… I wanted to get the word out, and I didn’t want to undermine it by screwing around too much. (Not to mention that I started running into some of the people I had been making fun of!)

The second reason, more in effect now, is just the circumstance. Back then people were acting so outrageously stupid, but were doing so with this chest-thumping arrogance… they were just teeing up the mockery. Now, many of those same people are foreclosed upon, unemployed, etc… that’s somewhat less funny.

Probably more of an analysis than you were looking for. 🙂

Rich

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