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August 18, 2006 at 12:08 AM in reply to: Poll: Is Housing a Good Investment over the next 1/5 years #32291
powayseller
ParticipantOK, so in the spring our inventory will double to 46,000, putting even more downward pressure on prices.
What would make the buyers come off the fence in the spring? The mood is turning darker among the buyers, and we’ve discussed the role of psychology.
Better sell now, before prices drop further.
What are those 3 people thinking? Or smoking? Is it that south-of-the border stuff or the good stuff from up north (just quoting another forum member from earlier today…)
Participantsdr, I don’t think I’ve ever disagreed with your ideas.
Participantrankandfile, I’ve never been to Iran, and know nothing of the youth. I know as much about Iranians as my husband knows about Norwegians, since neither of us has visited our parents’ homelands. But from what I read, I think the extemists hate us because we are on their Holy Land.
ParticipantMake sure you have replacement value, and read your policy. Many people were underinsured after the Cedar Fire, and could not rebuild their homes.
You need coverage for the dwellings only, not the land. If your home is worth $900K, then $600K is the dwelling. Insure that, at replacement value, with code upgrade coverage. When we rebuilt, we needed to do 10% of our construction in additional items, that were not part of the original house. New code for fire hydrant, fire alarm, fire turnout, sprinklers, roof, water tank, insulation, and much more.
Don’t get stuck with a 1-year cost of living policy. Allstate pays only 1 year living expenses, but it takes about 2 years to rebuilt. Heck, it took 6 – 8 months for the adjusters to finish their jobs, and then we had 2500 people trying to rebuild their homes at once. We were in rental housing for 2 years after the fire.
The best company: ZC Sterling. They were generous, paid promptly, and even raised our policy after we built a bigger house. Meanwhile, many people were cancelled by their insurer. As a bonus, they covered 150% of my policy! Plus they paid half my mortgage for 6 months, and threw in extra money for the cleanup crew after the fire.
Farmers was terrible to my neighbors. They refused to pay so many items. One neighbor had $10K in costs from mud falling in the pool. Farmers said they pay only a fraction of that for the pool. The deductible on landscaping meant they had to pay all the damage themselves. My two neighbors were very disappointed with Farmers.
ParticipantThe Singapore story is very interesting. So is Bush’s preoccupation with embryonic cells. Somehow they matter more than people already born. What an irrational man, who supports discarded cells over living humans. Does life only matter BEFORE birth? The war, low access to health care, poverty, wage gap, unwillingness to face the problems of social security….these problems create hardship for the living. Isn’t that more, or at least equally important? Not to a fundamentalist; he deals off the cuff, on emotion. People like him give religion a bad name, they really do.
ParticipantFor me personally, gold has more value when the dollar weakens. In my mind, as my concerns mount over a weak dollar, and no good alternative, only gold comes to mind. I think some day the markets will realize also that gold is a safe haven for a declining dollar. Perhaps that’s the reason gold rose with inflation: any time the dollar loses purchasing power, investors want to own gold.
So it shouldn’t matter that the loss of purchasing power is due to inflation or a rising trade deficit and budget deficit, right? A weaker dollar should lead to higher gold prices.
I am waiting for a good entry in gold. I would feel more financially secure if I had more gold and fewer dollars. I really would. Am I going nuts? Or am I being intuitive?
ParticipantNo blogs, I need a website. I will cover the local economy (employment, real estate) with free articles, and a fee for the forecast. Yahoo! has some design software, but are they reliable? I don’t want to do any coding, and may end up paying someone. So with this in mind, any other recommendations?
ParticipantThis is an interesting response, and thanks to everyone for contributing. In defense of Bush, the pork barrel and budget deficit problems are due to having a Republican Congress and a Republican president; nobody vetoed the other, and spending got out of control. Insiders say Bush has a short attention span, preferring short memos over detailed reports. His management style is : either you agree with me or you shut up. I just read a book written by one of his Treasury officials, who was critical of Clinton, but had nothing good to say about Bush.
I’m curious for those of you supporting the Iraq war: what were your concerns about the Iraqi people before our invasion? How do you feel about us being a war-monger nation, i.e. pre-emptive? Why don’t we invade and bring peace to Nigeria? Aren’t their problems legitimate too? Why don’t we invade North Korea and bring democracy there? I guess I’m asking because it seems there was an ulterior motive for Iraq. What?
As far as how I would handle Iran: First, I would find out why they hate us so much. Then, I would learn how other nations get along with them. By then, I would have enough information to form a strategy. I assume a lot of the Middle East hatred has to do with our support of Israel. I would be willing to stop supporting Israel, and probably that would result in the terrorists losing interest in us. This goes back to finding out why they hate us. I once read it is because we are on their holy land. We should leave their holy land. That should go a long way in creating peace.
Also I am puzzled why a discussion like this creates such emotion. PD especially is a very passionate woman on this issue. Why do you get so upset just having a discussion?
ParticipantI never liked Bush. I would prefer a president who had better than a C average in school. His poor public speaking and monkey face are not my main issue; rather, his lack of intelligence and vision is what I really dislike. His fundamentalist views, instead of making him more humanitarian, make him shut out all those who are not believers as he. I know the military and pro-gun people like him, because he gives a large military budget. Many of his advisors have resigned, he has no economic policy at all, and he has left a mess in positions and policies in his wake.
Here is more from Jimmy Carter:
SPIEGEL: One main points of your book is the rather strange coalition between Christian fundamentalists and the Republican Party. How can such a coalition of the pious lead to moral catastrophes like the Iraqi prison scandal in Abu Ghraib and torture in Guantanamo?
Carter: The fundamentalists believe they have a unique relationship with God, and that they and their ideas are God’s ideas and God’s premises on the particular issue. Therefore, by definition since they are speaking for God anyone who disagrees with them is inherently wrong. And the next step is: Those who disagree with them are inherently inferior, and in extreme cases — as is the case with some fundamentalists around the world — it makes your opponents sub-humans, so that their lives are not significant.
Another thing is that a fundamentalist can’t bring himself or herself to negotiate with people who disagree with them because the negotiating process itself is an indication of implied equality. And so this administration, for instance, has a policy of just refusing to talk to someone who is in strong disagreement with them — which is also a radical departure from past history. So these are the kinds of things that cause me concern. And, of course, fundamentalists don’t believe they can make mistakes, so when we permit the torture of prisoners in Guantanamo or Abu Ghraib, it’s just impossible for a fundamentalist to admit that a mistake was made.
SPIEGEL: So how does this proximity to Christian fundamentalism manifest itself politically?
Carter: Unfortunately, after Sept., there was an outburst in America of intense suffering and patriotism, and the Bush administration was very shrewd and effective in painting anyone who disagreed with the policies as unpatriotic or even traitorous. For three years, I’d say, the major news media in our country were complicit in this subservience to the Bush administration out of fear that they would be accused of being disloyal. I think in the last six months or so some of the media have now begun to be critical. But it’s a long time coming.
SPIEGEL: Take your fellow Democrat Senator Hillary Clinton. These days she is demanding the resignation of Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. But she, like many others, allowed President Bush to invade Iraq under a false pretext.
Carter: That’s correct.”
END INTERVIEWThe problem with Bush, as I’ve said many times, is his lack of ability and/or willingness to negotiate with our perceived enemy. He has alienated more countries and endangered American safety even more by thinking he is “too good to talk to them”. The Democrats are no better. Now, that the war is obviously going bad, they are calling for resignations. Why didn’t they make this call several years ago? Why did they allow the war to go forward? Hillary’s call for Rumsfeld to resign in politically motivated. She is not doing this in the best interest of the country; but in the best interest of her selfish plan for election.
Another thing we must all realize it is really a 2 party system. Although we have other party candidates on some ballots, the laws make it extremely difficult for a Libertarian, Natural Law Party (my favorite party), Communist, Socialist, or other politician to make it on the ballot. They have to gather tens of thousands of signatures within a few weeks timeframe (ONLY within those few weeks), to even get their name on the ballot.
The Republicans and Democrats basically control the system and make it impossible for any other party to get elected to President. If you ever read the ideas of other parties, you will realize that the difference between Republican and Democrate is like the difference between a Protestant and a Methodist; basically, they are the same. I would love to get a whole new set of ideas sometime, and a choice of more than 2 parties on the presidential ballot. Wouldn’t that be true freedome?
August 17, 2006 at 12:00 PM in reply to: The Real Story Behind the Los Angeles County 6.6% Median Price Increase #32180ParticipantI think higher appreciation in the cheaper areas is due to them being the last affordable place. More first time buyers hurried over to the under $500K neighborhoods, until finally they were priced out there as well. There was just more demand in National City and Clairemont and El Cajon in the last 2 years, than any time before. It was the last place left for an entry level buyer to get a home. This high demand pushed up prices. Won’t these areas fall first? The reversal – kind of like taking numbers off a stack (in programming).
The dollar/percentage explanation doesn’t make sense. Prices move by demand/supply.
ParticipantHow could Escondido and Poway go up by over 20%? Obviously, another median problem. More high end sales.
ParticipantA quick scan of AARP showed that the West has the highest rates of elderly. One study found that most boomer plan to retire in place. They want to continue living in their homes, work part-time, keep their health plan and doctor, expect their kids to move in, care for their grandkids, and avoid the shuffle of a move.
In my extended family, I have seen the choices made depend on income. A retirement community choice is an upscale Del Webb community or a trailer park. Other choices are maintaining one’s home, moving in with one of the kids, or a combination of retirement living in a Southern state during the winter and returning home for the summer.
The elderly definitely prefer the hot climate. It is good for their bones, as well as their lungs. The ones who can afford it, stay in the South only in the cooler months, and go to their previous home in the hot summer.
I think Yuma is growing rapidly for this reason. It is pretty cheap.
I think this is worth researching. Money will follow the boomers.
The problem in the survey is that most boomers said they would remain in their homes. But how many have their homes paid off? Many took on additional loans…Many boomers thought they could sell their homes to fund their retirement. Talk about dashed dreams!
ParticipantExactly! Condo conversions are already under a cloud. For that reason, you got such a reduced price; they are already hard to sell. People don’t want to buy an apartment grade unit for a condo price, and they are rightfully concerned about the reveral of these buildings to rental units. Once over half of the tenants in the building are renters, many lenders refuse to give you a loan, so the property may be possible to sell ONLY to a landlord in the future. For the same price, someone will buy a condo. Why not – there are thousands to choose from?
The first lesson I had in Real Estate: condos don’t hold their resale value as well as a home.
Apartment conversion condos will get crushed.
rooouuus, back out of this deal. You’ll be so glad. In 6 months, you will write to us how glad you are you waited. For the same money, you can buy a single family home in a few years, with a yard for the little one to romp in….
Participantrooous, what are the inputs and assumptions to your spreadsheet? Most people calculate based on tax deductions and homes rising with inflation. If a home loses 5 – 10% of its value each year, in 5 years you can be down 25-50%, so how could you possibly be ahead? I don’t understand.
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