[powayseller]

Well, then enjoy observing…

[powayseller]

I know a famiily that moved out of San Marcos, because her kids were too afraid of getting mugged at the junior high bathroom in school, that they would just “hold it” all day. I don’t know which school they attended. They ended up moving a lot further away from work, so their kids could feel safe at school.

[powayseller]

Thanks, Perry Chase, for sticking with the issues.

In regard to the rant from carlislematthew, I wonder if you would say all those things to me in person. I will be at the meet-up, and you have the opportunity to tell me exactly how you feel, face to face. When you call other people names in a public forum, while hiding behind your anonymity, it’s just being chicken.

Schahrzad

[powayseller]

I live next to the Community Park. Mainly, this area is the lower priced part of Poway, and the schools have the lowest test scores in our district. But the area is well maintained by the City, so the landscaping is very nice. The park at Midland is quiet and beautiful.

Last weekend, the Poway Days Parade drews many people, and it concluded with a 15 min. fireworks show that I watched from my backyard. I was amazed: the September Poway fireworks were 10x better than the 4th of July display at SeaWorld this year. Poway’s budget is in the black, and it shows. Next weekend is the Poway Rodeo.

If you live near Midland, you will find a quiet safe area, near trails and shopping, bike lanes, community events, etc. My sons and I ride our bikes up Midland Rd to his school (he doesn’t attend the school we are zoned for, right across the street; it has the lowest test scores in Poway).

[powayseller]

Yes, I agree.

[powayseller]

I was told prices dropped 25 – 35%. I think there were some very good deals to be had due to foreclosures, such as the one my friend got. I think this time, we will see more good deals like that. I was told there was a glut of foreclosures around Poway High School, an area considered one of the most desireable parts of Poway.

[powayseller]

He didn’t bash Bush; he makes a correct point that Bush is having to come to terms with an unpopular decision. From his statement, I couldn’t tell whether he likes Bush or not.

[powayseller]

You already answered your own question: no doc, stated income loans.

[powayseller]

Del Mar Ridge Apartment Rating

[powayseller]

Inventory usually decreases over the winter, and so do sales. So you are saying this time is unusual, in that we should be seeing a decrease by now and we are not?

[powayseller]

sdrealtor, lots of properties dropped that much in the early 90’s. Even the best properties were in foreclosure, according to people who have lived through it.

[powayseller]

There are several hurdles to clear to refinance out of an adjusting loan. Most of the resets start next year, and people are not going to refinance now because 1) they don’t know their loan will reset and/or 2) they hope interest rates are lower when their reset happens. The majority of loan resets will be in 2009 – 2010, if I understand correctly that Option ARMs have 5 year intro periods. So the biggest decline in housing prices would come in 2010, in my opinion, due to the high number of foreclosures from Option ARM borrowers who will default.

The problem for refinancing today could be several. With each passing year, the severity of each of these points that I make, gets bigger.

First, most people who qualified for the adjustable loans will no longer do so under the new lending guidelines which will come out this fall. Those guidelines are going to apply to all lenders, even the private ones. They will use Regulation X and Z to cover them all.

Second, to refinance, your home must appraise for the loan amount. If you are upside down, as many people who bought in 2004 or later could be, then you wouldn’t qualify for a refinance.

Third, if you were making a minimum payment on an Option ARM, your new loan balance could be 10-15% higher, and you may not qualify for a refinance based on the appraisal coming in too low and the payment too high for your income.

Fourth, to get back to the original low teaser payment, the Fed funds rate would need to be exactly what it was when you took out the loan back in 2001 – 2002. I think the Option ARM has a 5 year intro period, and didn’t become popular until 2003, so those borrowers won’t have a reset anyway until 2008. You’d need a Fed funds rate of 3% or so (?)

Fifth, I know of several people whose payment jumped, but they don’t want to refinance because they have a 6 month interest prepay penalty. That is a penalty of 6 months of their mortgage payment (if they are paying only the interest).

[powayseller]

JES, I have not read the book. Can you summarize it, and give us your own opinion of it? I’d be interested in what you think about it.

[powayseller]

sdrealtor, I disagree. The very best properties were on fire sale in the last downturn, and they will be again this time. (In my opinion, of course)

no_such_reality brings up a great point, and I agree with him. Let me give an example.

One of my favorite homes was purchased by a friend at 48% of the price of a comp that was sold just 18 months earlier. So she got 52% off just by waiting for the trough. I plan on finding hundreds of these types of deals in 2010.

To retain their anonymity, I will not give enough details that you can find them. However, they paid $ 96/sq ft, and the neighbor paid $200/sq ft just 18 months earlier. When I first met her, she told me they got a real good deal on their house, since it was purchased during the real estate slump.

[powayseller]

Senator Jim Bunning, Chairman of the Banking Subcommittee on Economic Policy, is hoping for a slower rate of appreciation in home prices, not a drop. Let’s toast to hope!

[Author]

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