[powayseller]

Do you think the lenders will offer restructured lending products, i.e. they would rather extend the teaser rate or add a balloon payment than lost $100K – $300K in a foreclosure or short sale. I know they are limited by investors and the higher interest rates they could get, but if you balance the lower interest rate against a $200K loss, it seems like an easy decision.

I’m just surprised that lenders are not restructuring loans for anyone who is 1-2 months late, to avert a much worse loss at foreclosure. A lender I spoke with said investors will never allow a restructuring, because they want the current higher rate.

[powayseller]

M3 as reported by John Williams of Shadow Government Statistics is rising 9% year over year.

Thanks for the explanation, bubba99. I forgot that the government just prints money.

What I don’t understand is why the Fed doesn’t stop with all that money printing, since it is raising inflation at 10% annually, according to that same site. On one hand they raised interest rates to control inflation, but on the other hand they are printing money, which is having the opposite effect. It is like filling a bathtub by running the water and keeping the plug out; it cannot fill up. Likewise, how can inflation be tamed if they keep printing money?

Does the Federal Reserve think we are too stupid to figure out their statistics are tortured to suit the government purpose of keeping cost-of-living adjustments low? I guess they do. With all their hedonic adjustments, they have fooled the masses into thinking inflation is only 2 or 2.5%. For the average person, who’d rather watch Desperate Housewives than read an economics text, the deception is working. But why are the professional investors and economists fooled by the government statistics?

Do you think John Williams is accurate on these statistics than the BLS?

[powayseller]

MarketWatch reported, “Net long-term capital inflows fell to $65.1 billion in September from a revised $114.4 billion in August. August’s inflows had previously been reported as $116.8 billion, which was a record.

The net long-term capital inflows weren’t enough to cover the U.S. current account deficit, which has been running at about $70 billion a month.”

How will the US make up the shortfall? Is this a noisy data point, or a harbinger of things to come? Foreign central banks have been warning of their intent to diversify. Is this the beginning?

guy1 is probably right. lower oil sales means fewer petrodollars to recycle. As oil falls, our Treasury sales drop. Add to that reduced demand by China.

So how do we fund our budget without these purchases?

[powayseller]

We’re at 10 months supply, and the prices are continuing to drop, according to the realtors I talk with. The median is useless. I wish the reporters would explain the limitation of the median every time they mention it. Bob Casagrand didn’t even put the median in his last report, because it’s a useless number. The only thing that matters, he says, is months supply. Anything over 8 means prices are falling.

[powayseller]

I realize that some funds return over 10%, but the difficulty lies in picking it ahead of time. For example, can you name the funds which will return over 10% next year? And since no one can do so, we cannot assume that rate of return. We can only assume a rate of return that we ourselves are able to achieve, or what the market as a whole can achieve.

[powayseller]

I realize that some funds return over 10%, but the difficulty lies in picking it ahead of time. For example, can you name the funds which will return over 10% next year?

[powayseller]

I realize that some funds return over 10%, but the difficulty lies in picking it ahead of time. For example, can you name the funds which will return over 10% next year?

[powayseller]

Roger Showley’s article is fairly balanced, but the headline is amiss. Jim Klinge wrote to Roger about this, and thought the headline would be revised. Roger probably gets plenty of flak from the RE industry, since they blame the media for causing the bubble to burst. Journalists usually just report the data, and as we know the data is bad.

I have not seen any good journalism, i.e. investigation type stuff from the U-T. I think the Voice of San Diego does much better investigative journalism. Kelly Bennett digs deeper into the story, and Rich Toscano is a contributing member, and we get the best news from the Voice.

I read the Voice almost daily, and basically ignore the U-T due to the much better journalism at the Voice. Who digs in the San Diego pension mess, the homeless in the canyon (Will Carless won an award for that story), the housing bubble? The Voice is superior, and if the U-T doesn’t catch up, they will keep losing readers.

[powayseller]

I asked Adam Hamilton at Zeal, what is the best way to buy gold coins, and he suggested internet dealer Franklin Sanders, author of the newsletter “The Money Changer”.

He also wrote that “any local coin dealer is fine as the coins are totally fungible. My favorite internet dealer though is Franklin Sanders. He is a newsletter
writer “The Money Changer” and gold dealer with impeccable honor and integrity. I respect him tremendously.”

[powayseller]

stopforeclosure, I will contact you, and hope you will participate in my new website. I value your input.

[powayseller]

We’re still selling thousands of homes every month. If you get the price right, you will find a buyer. It’s all about having the right house at the right price. Buyers have so much choice, that they will pick the best home for their money.

A new problem for sellers is the new lending guidelines,which are going to squeeze out the first time buyer. Without the first time buyers, the SD housing market is history. I think only 5% of San diegans can afford the median house using traditional financing, and all those probably already own a house.

If I were a seller, I would be more worried about finding a buyer who can get a loan, than I would be about finding a buyer.

[powayseller]

I have no clue about deflation or inflation, but I like to read iTulip and Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis and Roubini’s blog. I will keep reading their stuff.

Eric Janszen has an interesting inflation/deflation theory, which he developed a few years ago and recently revised, and its based on what happened in the credit bubble of the Great Depression. The guy is simply briliant. It’s his KaPoom theory, and is worth a read.

[powayseller]

qcomer, thanks for the correction, but it doesn’t change my mind about the low chances of beating the general market. That’s why I switched to index funds in the late 90’s. For example, These are the returns for your fund:
2006
2005 17.23%
2004 19.66%
2003 42.38%
2002 – 9.37%
2001 -12.99%
2000 -8.96%

With its heavy concentration in consumer goods and financials, 2007 is likely to be a year of losses again.

I don’t have tine to check all of AN’s funds, so I picked the highest returning, VGHCX. Again, it had some very good years, and some bad years. In 2001 and 2002 its return was -7%, and -11%. Then 3 years of good returns, 26%, 10%, 15%. What will it be next year? With 91% of holdings in health, the Democrats could put a serious dent in its earnings.

I am aware there are funds with extraordinary returns for one year, two years, or even 3 years. But two important points must be remembered:

1) no fund can consistently beat the general stock market (although Bill Miller came close with almost 2 decades), and

2) although each year, by definition of average, many funds beat the average, we *never know in advance* which funds they will be

[powayseller]

Why are you waiting until April to “get out”?

[powayseller]

Sounds good, if you have no assets for anyone to come and collect when all is said and done.

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