Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
powayseller
ParticipantSorry about the 4 posts…there’s a bug in squarespace so often my entries are posted 5-7 times. I always erase them, but left it up this time so the administrators could see the bug.
While I sold my house and don’t think anyone should buy now, the fact is, lots of people are still buying. Several of these buyers are posting on piggington about their purchase. Some people cannot be talked out of buying. My philosophy is: if you can’t be talked out of buying, get all the information you can and work with a good realtor. But if you avoid it, don’t buy now.
SD Realtor did not pay me to put his listing on my site. I approached him. I asked him if he had any listings I could put up for my “Neighborhood Focus” series. The purpose is to feature a different San Diego neighborhood each month, so we can all learn about this city, and where we might want to buy someday. Last month, I featured a house in Eastlake.
Mine is a housing analysis and commentary website. I love San Diego, I love real estate, and I like good realtors. My mission is to educate.
I stay in contact with realtors. I absolutely need to keep a good rapport with realtors for my work. How can I know what is going on in the housing market just from looking at data? The reason I offer so many exclusives on my site, is precisely because I talk to lots of realtors, so I can understand what is going on. I am the only person who has San Diego inventory, who explained why foreclosures are a lagging indicator, why prices are not falling now. I didn’t get any of that from sitting at my desk, but by being out in the field, talking with people.
Now I am working on the employment data for Southern CA, which I have not seen posted anywhere yet. Alan Gin made an incorrect remark in the UT about falling retail; I am going to correct him. He did not account for the seasonal Dec-Jan decline in home furnishing retailers.
Of course I am going to charge for that. I am grateful for the support, and the people who have signed up for the premium content. As more people have signed up, I feel more of an obligation to give them their money’s worth, so there is more premium content lately.
Interesting fellow, this woodrow, who seeks to destroy and belittle, rather than raise the discourse of the housing and economic discussion. If anyone were to be eliminated from the blogs, it should be the woodrows, whose belittling comments taint the entire blog. Roubini now has a login requirement, because he was getting so many low quality posts, of the type just discussed.
SDAppraiser, I think you are way out of line. The realtors how post here give us the insider view on what is going on. If they stopped selling houses as you suggest, then the entire market would come to a standstill, no seller could sell their house, and none of us would have the benefit of knowing what is going on in the market. Just because you and I don’t want to buy, doesn’t mean that everyone is going to listen to us.
Several realtors have told me they almost begged their buyers to wait for a while to buy… but the wife just HAD to have a house. In one case, the couple went to another realtor because they were tired of the good realtor telling them to wait. In another case, the wife HAD to have the house as soon as they moved here; they refused to live in the rental the realtor had arranged for them. They did not want to live here for 6 months to get to know the area, take their time. Yet, some readers here are saying the realtor is a bad person for pushing them into a house?
Everything I have been writing about is now starting to happen. The housing decline, the recession, the stock market correction, the lender fallouts, the credit crunch…. Come see me over at CaliforniaHousingForecast.com.
ParticipantI just had a look at this thread, and am surprised by the level of misunderstanding. This is David Rosenberg’s study and it shows a 79% correlation between the NAHB homebuilder sentiment index and the S&P500 one year later. If you think he’s full of it, then time will tell.
In the last decade, we have gone from making products to buying and selling houses to each other on money created by the Fed, and recycled to us from Saudi Arabia, Japan, China, etc. NOW HOUSING IS THE ECONOMY.
That is why Rosenberg showed only the last decade in the chart: Housing is more correlated with the economy than ever. Housing IS the economy.
My timing has been off, as the market retreat was delayed by delusional market participants. Just as in 2000, they are grossly mispricing equities.
Ciovacco Capital has the Rosenberg quote, followed by the conclusion that the correlation, if it holds, would lower the S&P500 by 42% from August 2006 – 2007.
“The chart above is rather intriguing – the NAHB homebuilders index leads the S&P 500 by 12 months and with a near-80% correlation – a correlation that over time has actually strengthened, owing to the growing influence that the real estate market has exerted on the overall economic and financial landscape over the past five years. In fact, we can trace almost two-percentage points of the 3 1/2% average annual rate in real GDP over that time frame to the boom in housing construction and home prices – the direct impact on homebuilding, the spin-offs to other sectors like real estate services, architecture, engineering, legal, etc and the multiplier impact from the ‘wealth effect’ on consumer spending, especially on home improvements and household furnishings.”
The statement above means that during the past five years housing has either directly or indirectly accounted for 57% of economic activity. The latest release of new home sales shows a 21% year-over-year decline.
Using the 12-month lag of the S&P 500 as shown in the chart above, the actual correlation between the S&P 500 and the homebuilders index is .79, which would give us the following calculation to forecast where the S&P 500 may be 12 months from now (roughly August 31, 2007):
* The homebuilders index had a reading of 67 in August of 2005 (12 months ago)
* The reading of the index as of August 2006 is 32
* A move from 67 to 32 represents a 52% decline
* With a .79 correlation to the S&P 500, we need to reduce that decline by 79%, which gives us roughly 41% (reduced from 52%)
* If the correlation holds, which it may not, the S&P 500 would be 41% lower 12 months from now (or roughly on August 31, 2007).
END OF CIOVACCO CAPITAL QUOTE
February 27, 2007 at 4:01 AM in reply to: Lets get the nontraditional mortgage guidance adopted in CA #46344ParticipantI listened to the hearing, and Machado asked for a few panel members to get back to him with further information, giving them 30 days to do so. That puts us out to February 28.
Now I think that tighter underwriting guidelines will come from the lender/investor side first. That means by the time the Senate Finance Committee gets around to stopping the ponzi scheme of loose lending and finally pays attention to bank safety, the very loans they are trying to prevent will no longer even be available.
Where was Machado in 2004?
ParticipantJWM is right.
OC prices are likely to drop 60%.However, I caution anyone against using the median to measure the price drops. The median is a distribution number.
As Perry said, when people spend more money, it’s not because housing prices rose, but because they got more house for their money.
As Bugs said, the price drops are already starting.
Measure the price drops by following the prices of some neighborhoods and homes over time. If data is your gig, forget the median and keep an eye on the OFHEO and Case-Shiller indices.
ParticipantWe are in a temporary sweet spot for sellers. San Diego Home Market Rallies but prices keep dropping
ParticipantPerry’s personal adventures have nothing to do with Bush’s war plan. Shifting the focus from Iraqi Brigades to insulting Perry, is a last resort for those who are unable to defend the plan on its own merits. But then, maybe they are encouraged by a recent comment that name calling shows “strong social skills”?
ParticipantMy mom told me it's never polite to talk about money. Wealth is relative. The more wealth on has, the less one should discuss it. – Perry Chase
I totally agree with that statement, and I regret that I allowed myself to be goaded into disclosing the returns on the sale of my house on another thread. (jg: …So, ps, you're not going forward with your website/forecasting service, since you didn't hit anything out of the ballpark in this run up?)
I should have said, I owned a San Diego home from 2000-2005 so of course I profited at time of sale. At the same time, I did not leverage this opportunity by putting down less money, nor did I buy rental properties. So while I benefitted from the timing, I also underplayed the opportunity. In the process, I've learned enough that hopefully the next opportunity will not miss me by.
Participantrankandfile, June 14, 2006
“I like PS’s shorter comments, but there’s something that makes me think Powayseller is the host in disguise. Like Phil Hendrie acting as Bobby Doolie or Margaret Gray. Call me crazy.”
ParticipantSDAppraiser, bear market funds info is available on the internet. You and I won’t be exchanging information about our financial investments, bank account passwords, or results of our physicals anytime soon.
Clients of stockbrokers, retirement fund managers, financial planners, and investing bloggers (Big Picture, Don Harrold) should aks for, and receive, the professionals’ investment returns. If their past returns are lousy, there should be a story of knowledge gained that would improve returns in the future. Most clients are too afraid to ask. Don’t be. Demand to know, and don’t invest with anyone who refuses to tell you, or who gets mad/defensive about your question. Chris Johnston and Zeal post their returns on their websites. You ought to demand the same from anyone who manages your money.
The guy from the gym who’s got $ 1 mil under management does not even know his advisor’s own history of returns. When I asked him, twice, he changed the subject and was clearly uncomfortable.
Participantjg, Please let me go, your hatred and obession with me is kind of freaking me out. When I pop in your head, could you please think of your glittering beautiful gold and your Saviour and think peaceful thoughts. Thank you.
ParticipantHow did we get from “So my brother and Rich did not buy real estate in this boom, because they saw the bubble” to people wanting my bank records? Thanks to PD for bringing a little humor back in 🙂
The whole thing would have been avoided if Rich had simply answered, “I owned a San Diego home from 199x – 200x, and an Austin, TX home from 200x – 200x.” In essence, you guys did miss the boom because you owned real estate in Texas which appreciated 4% annually and did not keep your San Diego home from the late 1990’s, nor buy a San Diego home when you returned in 2003.
As I also said, so what? Does someone writing about real estate markets need to be an expert on real estate in the past? No. They only need to be an expert now. And you definitely know a lot about real estate markets.
As far as the boys who got into the mix above, they quickly went into auto pilot, seeing a golden opportunity to try to belittle me, a delight for that group of boys. In this way, they are giving me more free publicity. As celebrities are well aware, negative publicity is better than none. So these nice boys have given me not only publicity, but the kind of thick skin that comes in real handy. Heck, some people might even accuse me and Rich, with Brooke as accomplice, for orchestrating this entire post to increase traffic to this site and increase anticipation of my own debut. (Remember when lots of people thought powayseller was Rich in disguise?)
ParticipantFSD, nicely done on the return, poorly done on the definition of measly.
Now you know why I didn’t ask Rich about his real estate investment before. I knew he would get defensive. If he had just answered the question, instead of being defensive and saying I was wrong, wrong, wrong, I doubt the other guys would have been upset. But boys, instead of being upset with me for asking the question, ask yourselves why you wouldn’t want to know? What makes you so uncomfortable with my question?
For me, it simply doesn’t matter what his returns are. I will read his posts whether his returns are 3% or 500% annually. What does matter to me very much, is that he has the integrity and courage to be open about this, and not hide behind “privacy”. So I, one of his biggest supporters, am sorely disappointed. I guess that is *my* problem.
Participantbullionvault.com stores gold in Brinks vaults in Zurich, New York, or London. The gold never leaves, just the ownership changes hands. The bullion is tracked from the moment it leaves the mining company, so it has a history and the buillon is sequentially stamped. This is important I think for institutional purposes and resale. This is the company recommended by Eric Jantsen (iTulip.com)
Other options are keeping some 1 oz. gold coins for spending, if that need ever arises. According to Adam Hamilton, owner/publisher of Zeal, they should be fungible. Get something easily exchanged, like 1oz. American Eagles, Canadian Gold Maple Leafs, or South African Krugerrands.
ParticipantYour answer leaves me somewhat unsatisified. You are a public persona in real estate blogging, but your own real estate history is a private matter? What is a “nice profit” and a “very profitable investment”? Percent returns do not violate your privacy at all, only dollar amounts would do so. Is 1% or 3% a year a nice profit? It’s tax free, so it well could be.
Whether your returns were 3% per year or more, doesn’t really change my respect for your work. piggington.com is the best housing bubble blog out there. Hopefully mine will be as good as yours.
I and others have been quite candid about our own investments, but you have chosen to keep yours all private. We should have asked you long ago about your own real estate investing. I was too afraid of insulting you, and didn’t know how you would handle this. Maybe others, like sdcellar, were afraid they’d be booted off the forums, LOL?
-
AuthorPosts