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powayseller
ParticipantChris, I have a tiny sliver of knowlege of these things, but have the same ideas as you, and I didn’t get into tech stocks either. I would like to hear your position on these points that I alread posted elsewhere: I’d like to sell my index funds and indiv. stocks (except increase Berkshire B & pick up a pawn shop), and put the rest of the money into cash. What form of cash? CD? Treasury? Euros? Yuan? A portion in precious metals? I’m undecided, but I believe a major recession is coming due to the dependence on RE, which is starting to unwind. Fallout will extend to banks, GSEs, and a financial collapse cannot be ruled out. The dollar is a risky place to be, esp. as the above happens and China starts to diversify.
ParticipantPlease call Vanguard to get the holding info. I got so much incorrect info via e-mail. My prime money market fund has GSE stuff in it. I don’t know about the CA tax-exempt fund. Vanguard offers CDs and a treasury fund. However, I am considering other currencies. The yuan has to go up against the $, right?
ParticipantHe’s a retired executive with over 30 years
business experience, managing divisions of major companies.ParticipantSdrealtor has not disclosed anything. He has launched personal attacks.
ParticipantIf the derivatives market and GSEs and banks have a really bad quarter, and possibly collapse, wouldn’t the stock market also be at risk, and the ETF would be unable to be accessed? Also, I read that the gold investing could be risky, if the mining company doesn’t find any success in mining. Some recommend holding gold buillon, but I can’t see that we are going to pay our rent and gas in gold. How do you hold an asset without worrying about your asset holder (brokerage account, bank, stock exchange) going under?
ParticipantThe integrity of a realtor is separate from his years of experience. From his photo, he looks to be in his 50’s, and I thought I had read he sold RE since the 70s, but that was my mistake. Sorry. However, his years of experience was my mix-up – he never told me how long he’s been selling RE. Furthermore, I am amazed that he is the only realtor in SD who has such a good understanding of the market. He writes like someone who’s been in the business much longer, that’s why I made the mistake of thinking he has been. He just sounds so knowledgeable, and he’s nice too. Since he’s not pushing people into buying with the “you better buy now before you’re priced out of the market and RE never goes down” phrases, he probably has had fewer sales. The drawbacks of a conscience!
Bob Casagrand has integrity, and sdrealtor, you don’t! When are you going to stop spying on people who disagree with you? Bob didn’t do anything to you. He’s giving us data, that you don’t even understand! You check out my house on the MLS, but you get the data all mixed up. You read Bob’s real estate report, but can’t figure out why the median price is going up, even though it’s written right there. I thought it would be fun having you on this board, but I changed my mind. You’re not a good sport, you’re full of yourself, and you give realtors a bad name.
ParticipantI thought it was a joke, until I read his recipes. This guy is serious. This is the new RE marketing: provide food and beverages for weary guests, to give them a pick-me-up between all those 18,000 Open Houses they drive to. With all that inventory, it must get tiring!
ParticipantHow many people do you know that feel as you do. I get the sense that many would buy if they could just qualify. My neighbor, a renter, said he and his wife were going to an Open House last weekend. I got the feeling they are looking for a good buy, and would buy if they could come up with the money.
What made you and your friends to decide to wait? If you’ve been renting for several years, you were way ahead of everyone else in seeing the bubble.
I’m glad you posted. I wish more people would. I get tired of reading my own writing 🙂
ParticipantCan you and leung_lewis give a synopsis of what’s going on in those websites. I have limited time for reading, and it sounds like you are knowledgeable already. The benefit to a forum here is that each of us can share the unique perspectives and pockets of knowledge. I’d also be interested in your long-term outlook of the economy, and where to invest.
ParticipantI also believe in Index funds, and am a big Vanguard fan. Have been for many years…
I sold my house because it didn’t make sense to own an overvalued property whose value was about to plummet. We took the profit. Had we owned the house outright, we would have stayed. My husband loved that house, and he misses the views and over 5 acres we had. If we’d owned it, our mortgage payments would have been zero, and you can’t rent for zero.
I used to call doomsdayers pessimists, but the more I’m learning about the markets, the more I’m turning into one of those doomsdayers too. Now I have to change the label from pessimist to realist, because I’m an upbeat person.
The big mystery is the derivates and MBS markets, where all the money is coming from to keep the game going, the role of the gov’t in keeping the markets stable, and how long the gov’t can keep up the game. I want to be smart enough about it, to protect my family, learn from others, and educate too.
My rant about Sell Now is meant to educate, to widen people’s perspectives. I tell everyone I meet that I sold my house to get out of the housing bubble. I do that to enlarge people’s perspectives. It’s a type of charity work for me.I’m helping someone a lot more if they avoid foreclosure, than I could ever do checking in books at the school library or doing my Treasurer job at the PTA. They easily found another mom to take over the Treasury job, but there won’t be too many people as outspoken as I am about the real estate market.
Participant“This is not due to a lack of homes for sale, the under $500,000 inventory stands at about 8,300 – 158 days supply – or 47% of total inventory.”
The statistics show that the under $500K homes are almost half the inventory. So there’s a lot for the first time buyer to choose from. I don’t know why they’re not buying – waiting on the sidelines, or not able to qualify?
ParticipantCan you elaborate, I didn’t understand, since I don’t know what happened with the yen in the 80s.
Also am reading that some Chinese senior officials would like to diversify out of the USD. Are Chinese concerned about the fallout to the Chinese economy as we enter our recession, as the American consumer cuts back drastically on spending in the next few years. Remember, the only way we could afford to buy all those Chinese goods if from home equity withdrawals. That game is over, and the last trickles of refinancings are now going on. March sales among US retailers was disappointing. What do you feel/read over in China about all this?
ParticipantYou can buy yuan w/ a $10K minimum purchase at Everbank.
Participantoops – I made a mistake. The fourth line should say “up” instead of “downward”. The mix in sales shifted UP to more expensive homes. Anyway, read Bob’s report to get the whole story.
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