[powayseller]

The worker productivity statistic is interesting. Economists say that although our manufacturing employment is down, our productivity is continuing to grow. Likewise, wages are flat since we are competing w/ underdeveloped nations.

Why isn’t this stuff in the headlines? It’s happening slowly, imperceptibly.

Lostkitty, where have you guys put your money?

[powayseller]

Has David Lereah ever admitted that prices may go down 5-10% in bubble markets? I mean, they’ve already come down. The Poway realtor I spoke to outright lied to me about Poway historical prices.

At least you’re honest about the price drops. I wish more of your colleagues were too.

[powayseller]

So realtors should be race car drivers? Or Laywers (since they’re so good at all the paperwork)?

Oh, I know, they pound the streets, so they should be marathon runners?

Now I’m really confused….

[powayseller]

What you’ll find on these forums is 2 major groups of people: housing bulls (realtors, homeowners, home investors) and housing bears (renters by choice or necessity). Sometimes exchanges get a little heated between between these groups. I found the best tactic is ignoring posts which are unprofessional. I call it the “tone of a gentleman” litmus test, and only respond to posts which pass this test.

[powayseller]

Inflation has been raging everywhere, except in wages, as I keep noting :). That’s why people are stretched so thin. Employers are actually paying more for each employee, but are sliding it toward exponentially rising health insurance and other costs, and thus not able to put it in wages. Corporations are using their cash for share buybacks and mergers, instead of paying employees. Wages will be flat as long as we have low-wage competition in underdeveloped countries. Sorry, wages won’t save this gig!

[powayseller]

The factor of 9 is an average for the entire city, and includes move-up buyers with tons of equity, and people who’ve lived in a house a long time and accumulated equity. So we can’t use the 9 multiple for figuring out how much people will borrow for a mortgage. That figure is much lower.

The loan amount used to be 3-3.5 x your income. By that analysis, the $40K income would afford a $120-$150K house. That would be the viable price of a starter house in San Diego.

Rich’s charts use per capita income, not household income. If household income is $64K in SD, then per capita income is ?

[powayseller]

Why now sduuuude asks. Perhaps I’m overresponding to the headlines. Read the Bloomberg headlines. Here’s another one about yesterday’s dollar selloff.

Each day, I read the dollar fell again against the euro and the yen, gold is up. Then China’s high officials (cleverly never the government itself) and economists drop hints they will diversify out of the US $ and buy other currencies and gold. A Chinese economist, just this week, recommended that China buys 1900 tons of gold, which is as much as is mined in 9 months globally. Why were they saying this? It will surely drive up the price of gold. They want to notify the US they are diversifying.

Look, China is holding something like $600 bil (?) of Treasury debt. They don’t get interest on it. You only get interest when the term expires. So they are holding worthless IOUs. The problem is that we NEED them to buy this. We need $2 bil daily of cash infusion from foreigners. If we really ARE the richest country in the world, why do we need foreigners to give us $2 bil per day just to keep our economy going?

I see that we are no longer the richest and most productive country. We are dependent on foreigners to fund our daily operation. The rise in our debt is unprecedented, as is our dependency. Our exports are down and have no hope of recovery.

Also consider that every fiat currency has a useful life of 50-70 years. Once, the British pound was a fiat currency. Why do we think the USD must be forever the fiat currency, just because we are in USA, and don’t want it to stop being the world reserve currency? Someone should study what made the other fiat currencies falter. I think it was what we’re doing now: too much debt.

Of course, this could go on another 1-5 years before it collapses. Just like the housing bubble. But collapse it will unless we pay of the national debt and balance the trade deficit. I see no resolve in Congress or in the White House for either measure. That’s why I see the decline of the US $. Time to diversify, but where?

What stunned me what when the Chinese President came to the US. He went first to visit Bill Gates, and to the White House last. He spent only 30 min. with our President. Wasn’t that a sign of utter disrespect from one statesman to another?

Another problem is what I see corporations doing with the huge amount of cash on hand. (Everyone is awash in liquidity these days, except wage earners.) Instead of investing it in research, development, expansion, it is utterly wasted in stock buybacks and mergers. Both acts use large amounts of cash, but don’t add any economic value. The only people who make money during M&A is the financial advisors and lawyers putting the deal together. It’s wasteful activity. (Isn’t it true that whenever M&A rises, the stock market has peaked – is there a correlation like that?)

[powayseller]

I started a thread on Buyside in the last month. They’re new, and were just hiring.

[powayseller]

You are absolutely right! You’ve figured out the changed market! 80% of homes are sold via the client finding the home on the internet. We need a little more progress on getting value info and forms, and the customer doesn’t need the agent at all. The realtor goes the way of the travel agent.

[powayseller]

The Mackey sales team analysis writes that the greatest price drops are in these vulnerable products: land, multifamily, condos, areas w/ high non-owner occupancy, luxury/high end, large sq footage homes.

Chris from Mackey/Prudential is the guy to go to. He helps investors 1031 out of CA properties (bec. they are going to depreciate 25%), and move to another state, where prices are not going to drop as much. In 2010, or when CA prices have hit bottom, they can move back to CA.

[powayseller]

Fair enough. However, a 30-yr veteran realtor who tells me that prices have never gone down in Poway and therefore never will, or David Lereah saying prices will go up 6% this year when they’re already down, is plain dishonest.

[powayseller]

It doesn’t take much experience, education, or know=how to be a realtor. Just check the education and credentialing requirements for the realtor license. So since it’s not brain surgery, I don’t look for a brain surgeon. Just someone whose out in the field, and can help me fill out the paperwork. Nothin’ to it. What is the training required to be a realtor? Am I missing something here? Do you need a college degree? Do you need to know about markets, economics? From what I hear, you only take one class teaching you how to close a deal. Making sales. And how to fill out all those forms. Simple stuff.

[powayseller]

Oh, the ice cream part was just to lighten up the topic a little. As in, if you answer this post, also include the name of your favorite ice cream.

[powayseller]

If they don’t know, they’re clueless. And that’s the problem. Too many clueless realtors running around.

The guy I wrote about, Chris, a Prudential realtor from the , wrote a 2006-2010 CA RE Market Forecast, which shows RE prices in CA dropping until 2010. He works with local RE investors, who are advised to offload their depreciating CA properties and doing a 1031 exchange into other markets, until the CA corection is done. As far as local buyers, he advises them to buy only if they can handle losing a ton of equity, can ride out the downturn, and get a fixed rate mortgage. Now this is a guy I can trust!

I also trust Bob Casagrand, who acts as a consultant in transactions. He’s as sharp as they come, and has managed companies in Saudi Arabia and Europe. He understands financing and economic cycles, and cares about the people, not just making a quick buck. He makes sure his buyers can afford their house for the long term.

Yes, there are some good ones out there.

[powayseller]

I couldn’t believe it either. My friend called the realtor and said he had an offer to bring over, and the realtor said he couldn’t deal with it. As far as my realtor friend knows, the sellers were not notified of the offer. It didn’t matter, because his buyers had several other homes picked out. Remember, buyers market, buyers win.

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