[powayseller]

I am sorry I asked anyone how much their home went down last week. That was a horrible thing to say. I’m really sorry.

[powayseller]

I agree with that assessment, and would avoid a FSBO. The people who go this route don’t have an impartial person to assist with the negotiation, and in RE deals, emotions get in the way at least once. The first emotion to get in the way is the seller’s ego, and he thinks his house is worth 20% more than it really is, because he feels he is special and thus his house is special, and someone will come along who sees the real value of this unique home and will pay much more than it is worth. Without a realtor to bring in some reality, the first mistake is made: a high price which prevents any showings. Without showings: no offers.

The other emotions that get in the way would be negotiation to fix things, compromises on dates and so on.

I like talking with the seller directly, but I have my doubts as to their ability to make a clean deal on their own home.

[powayseller]

How much did your house lose last week?

[powayseller]

Yes, zillow is WAY overvaluing some houses. Some people say zillow is accurate.

The house I mentioned is quoted by zillow in the high 600’s, but is listed for sale at $525K. It is probably worth only $480K.

I like zillow for the sales history info. For valuation, it is useless to me. What does Bugs think?

[powayseller]

A vacant house on my street has been on the market 141 days, and the price reduced twice, from $545K to 535K to 525K earlier this month. The owner died in the house. But the heirs seem in no hurry to make significant price reductions. Perhaps they can afford the carrying costs.

Now get this: zillow is showing his property’s value change in the last week as NEGATIVE $5,316.

I checked my house that I’m renting, and it lost over $5K this week.

Zillow is showing the declining market.

[powayseller]

Thanks – will you be tracking this over time?

zillow lets you search by “reduced”, and they are at 30% of properties are reduced.

As far as editing, you cannot edit a new topic you created, and can edit a post as long as someone else has not hit “reply” on your post.

[powayseller]

Prices are already dropping, sales are down to the tune of 40% in June 06 vs June 05, and inventory is rising. The bubble has popped. Nationally, it appears orderly, but in overheated markets like this, it is not orderly at all, the ship has turned and by the end of the year, the layoffs in construction and retail will really pick up, ARM adjustments will lead to more inventory….

As far as the banks, that is a wild card. I suppose they can refinance their borrowers, but ultimately they will not give away money. They are not non-profits or homeless advocates.

The only hope is that the ARM holders can find a loan they can afford. That will save the bubble a little longer.

You forgot to mention that our economy is totally dependent on rising home values to fund consumer spending. Even flat home prices will cause a recession, as consumer spending cannot continue without rising home prices from which to obtain the money that is not coming from wages. Real wages have been flat for over 10 years, so the rising home prices were used to supplement income. That gig is up.

Global banks are raising interest rates, Japan is ending the carry trade.

The party is ending.

[powayseller]

What does 242 mean? 242 houses for sale, 242 reduced prices, 242 rentals? What???

What are you seeing on craigslist, and what does it mean?

[powayseller]

From Ben’s blog, regarding the realtors association May numbers for inventory. Ben wrote:

“That’s a 5.5% increase over the last month, a 41% increase over the same month last year and a 51% increase in YOY months supply.”

Despite more choices, buyers are not biting. If this is not increased illiquidity, what is? I would be worried if I had to sell for job loss, move, divorce.

The housing market seems pretty illiquid right now.

[powayseller]

For those of us not following craigslist, can you post what you’re seeing?

[powayseller]

MoneyCNN had an article today about home sales.

“Lereah said there were some overheated markets in which prices were starting to soften. But he said such price softening would prompt more demand from home shoppers who have been waiting for opportunities to buy at more affordable prices.”

Actually, David, real estate markets collapse on the liquidity side. Inventory builds up, and prices are pressured down as sales keep dropping. That is what’s happening in the overheated markets in FL, AZ, CA. On what planet do you see more demand from shoppers? Are you really that ignorant, or do you think that lying is doing the RE industry a favor?

[powayseller]

Are builder cancellations published? Is the revised new-home sales figure a result of adjusting for cancellations?

[powayseller]

This is becoming interesting as an example of how a lender handles an REO. The data shows the property is bank owned (Wells Fargo), seller contact is Wilshire Credit Corp, alternate contact is Quality Loan Service Corp.

Going back through the history, the NOD filing shows the lender is Wilshire Credit, trustee is Quality Loan Service. No mention of Wells Fargo. Why does Wells Fargo suddenly show up?

What does this tell us? The realtor told me within 5 days of the planned auction, that he had an offer and was getting ready to call the lender to discuss it. Perhaps the offer fell through?

The For Sale sign is no longer up. Isn’t the bank better off putting the house back up for sale, or will they go to auction?

[powayseller]

I was quoting this stuff several months ago, and was labeled an extremist. I take that as a compliment, but the point is: even people on this forum don’t fully realize how bad this is going to get.

June sales are off 40% over last year. 30% of listings are vacant. This downward spiral is picking up momentum. But the newspapers won’t carry this story until August or September. By then, we’ll read about a negative y-o-y median price.

Does anyone know the builder cancellation rate in San Diego? That rate needs to be added to the new home sales to get the true new home sales figure.

[powayseller]

Bugs – One of the Country Creek neighbors and I planned to attend the April auction. I spoke with the listing agent a few days before the auction, and he told me he had just found a buyer and was sure the bank would accept the sale.

Yet it is still listed on foreclosure.com as bank owned, so the sale didn’t go through? The house on the next block, Poway Valley Road, was probably the one you examined, and that is the house that had the makeover before the people moved in. I got them mixed up.

What happens now to the Country Creek house? Why did foreclosure.com list the $660K sale price if it didn’t sell? I checked zillow, and here is the sales history of the house
06/07/2006: $659,885
04/06/2004: $725,000
09/27/2000: $395,000

There’s another preforeclosure on Twin Peaks Road, just a couple blocks away, and I noticed the owner finally listed it for sale.

Most of the Poway NODs are in the lower-priced neighborhoods off Garden Road and Pomerado Rd, although I have seen them in Bridlewood, Lomas Verdes, and other areas.

rankandfile – I was joking about my rear bumper. I wear a size 0, so there isn’t much room for a sticker.

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