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powayseller
ParticipantMy neighborhood is not moving, because the sellers are listed too high.
One listing was for sale 6 months, and taken off the market, as the owners accepted they could not get the asking price they needed to make the move to their new home in Temecula.
One unit has been listed since February, and has its 3rd reduction. Another Open House this weekend with no cars….
The only unit that sold was the smallest one, range listed starting at $399K, and it sold in a few weeks. I don’t know what the buyers paid for it.
Another unit has been listed 3 months, with many Open Houses done by the owner. I stopped by this weekend and suggested that she lower her price.
However, I see lots of Sold signs in Poway, which prompted my other post asking if Poway is still in high demand for its supposedly better schools. Between December and February 1 saw 1 sold sign, and now I see about 10 or 15. They seem to be everywhere, and some houses sell within one week. I know of 1 house that sold in 3 days, according to the owner.
ParticipantIt’s a cultural thing. Americans value sports over education, Chinese value education over sports, Mexicans value family over education. Cultural preferences. I also think Mexicans have a very strong work ethic. I admire Mexican values very much, and am proud to have a Mexican that married into my family.
So sdrealtor is almost right in saying that ethnicity is a proxy for test scores. But mainly because the middle class and rich Mexicans stayed in their home country, and the poor Mexicans came to the US.
Test scores are a proxy of the education level of the students’ parents. Lower income means less educated parents, so less emphasis on studying and lower test scores. So if you look at a school’s ethnicity and poverty level, you can guess the API. More Chinese and whites means higher API. The Chinese make sure their kids learn English and catch up in the classroom. The Mexicans are not as concerned. You’ve got Mexican families, where the parents don’t even bother learning English. It’s just not that important to them.
I am foreigner myself. I learned English at age 9. It took me 3 months to learn English, and I was bored in school, because the American schools are behind the German schools. I had to skip a grade, because I was so bored, compared to the German schools. The germans value education, esp. engineering, and they are well known for their engineering products.
Let’s not confuse facts with prejudice.
I don’t know about other South American countries, in terms of their importance placed on education.
I don’t say Americans are better for valuing sports over education over family. Americans will put their parents in a nursing home, but I bet a Mexican would never do that. A Mexican mom will hold her baby while she vacuums, while an American mom is content to dump her kid at day care or leave it in a crib while she is cleaning. I cannot judge which value is better, only that different cultures place different values on education. And this shows up in the API.
Mexicans are just as smart as Chinese. It’s just that the Chinese parents push their kids so hard to study. That is the only reason their test scores are higher. But how often did you see a Chinese play soccer or basketball? How many Chinese start a business? Are they creative, playful, able to enjoy themselves if they have failed at something? I don’t know, because they are forced by their parents to study so much. Chinese don’t care if their kids are athletic.
So while all people have the same ability to learn academically and excel in sports (except the Africans do have the genetics to be the fastest runners), cultures emphasize different skills and values. I think we can learn a lot from the Mexicans about being close to our families. I admire their comraderie and hard work ethic.
ParticipantPrices go up when demand exceeds supply. The people leaving are homeowners who are selling. We have 30% vacancy in homes for sale, but what is the vacancy rate in rentals?
More and more people want to rent, pushing up the price.
The rental stock is shrinking, as apartment conversions were made into condos, and rental stock has not been replenished for a long long time.
The CPI which is 40% rents, is going up because rents are rising. As housing becomes unaffordable from rising interest rates, people choose renting over buying. This will exacerbate when lending standards tighten next year.
A few months ago, I was tossing around the idea of locking in a 2 year lease, and I couldn’t figure out whether rents would go up or down. I had a list of arguments on both sides. I ended up signing the 2 year lease. Sounds like it was a lucky decision.
I am wondering if you can quantify your search. How much is the increase? Apartments or houses?
ParticipantI forwarded scowman’s and Bug’s comments to the staff writer whose article started this thread, and she wrote back:
Yep, that’s what I’m hearing — that private money won’t be so forgiving.
Thanks for passing this along.Mary Ann Milbourn, Staff Writer
Orange County RegisterParticipantI agree with you PD about people taking handouts. I met a beautiful healthy young woman last week, who is on disability because of a car accident. From the activities she engaged in while I spent the day with her, I was shocked. I also have a friend in Texas who gets more money from his VA disability (while he zones out on Percocets), than he made while working. While he was “disabled”, he used to move and repair furniture. Until he decide to milk the system. Geez, but what does all this have to do with the housing bubble? Oh yes, if government were smaller, our budget deficit could be eliminated, and our economy would improve. Yes, that’s the tie-in 🙂
ParticipantI’m sorry I created so much confusion. I forgot that I did give it to Drew in the post above. I have to eat dirt…
At the same time, I request that other people don’t reference my personal information in their own posts. Thank you.
ParticipantJim, I like you, and I am not mad about the link provided, because your intentions were kind. You tried to help me. Actually, on the Assessor link, I had been trying to look up the current house we’re in, the place we’re renting. I had not even tried the other one.
The whole thing was obviously a misunderstanding. The important point to me is that you posted that in the spirit of being helpful. I thank you for that, as well as for all the other information you provided to me over the past few months.
Back to the details. If I did post my street name, I went back right away and EDITed my post. I did give the sales price, only because the stories I give about my own experience are easier to tell with the real numbers. Otherwise I’d have to keep saying x and y and 20% less than x and $20K more than y, etc. ,and it would be hard to follow. The reason the link was changed is because I e-mailed Rich and asked him a favor to delete that post, so he didn’t do that and instead changed the link to the Assessor site instead of the specific one with my address.
ParticipantI’ve seen several houses that are bank owned. Do you know the one on Country Creek we discussed? The realtor told me he had an offer. This was a few days before the auction. He was sure the bank would take it as a short sale. But the property is showing up as bank owned on foreclosure.com. Do you think this is because they will go after the difference from the borrower? A short sale would preclude them from doing it. The house just a block away, on Twin Peaks Road is also bank owned. That one was only listed on the MLS a few weeks ago, presumably by the lender.
In both cases, why did the borrower decide to let the bank take the house, rather than sell it themselves? (Country Creek was listed, but obviously not motivated enough to sell)
ParticipantI gave my name, but NEVER my personal address. You had no business publishing my address either. Come on people, show a little restraint.
There is nothing impressive about my sales price. I had one of the cheapest houses in town. I wasn’t bragging about anything. I have nothing to brag about.
I gave my housing information in the context of a post. It was meant to convey a personal experience, so others could learn.
I knew that the people with MLS access might snoop and check it out. I accept that.
But I never guesses someone would publish it. That was in bad taste. You didn’t have my permission for that, and I am angry that you did it.
ParticipantI believe that the realtors on this forum should provide market insights, such as that provided in Bob’s newsletter. In response to this thread started by desmond, I would expect any realtors on this forum (there are several, let’s not pick on one of them), to add to it. For example, they could say. “I also see a high vacancy rate in my area”, or “1/3 of my customers say they are leaving San Diego”, or “I see something different; in my area, investors are busy buying up properties”. I am looking for market insights from the realtors.
Look at Bugs. What a professional. He has a cool head, and continuously teaches us about the market conditions. Privatebanker has taught me so much. He’s written many posts about REOs back in the 1990’s, and has a solid knowledge of banking and investing. Chris J taught me a lot about trading and investing. None of these guys gets sidetracked by having a laugh at the expense of a colleague. I thought sdr’s comment was a cheap shot, and was the only thing he had to say about a report so valuable, it has been quoted on numerous blogs so far. It’s up on ocrenter, Ben’s blog, and Patrick.net.
ParticipantI am not a socialist, and I wish the government were half its size. I have a bleeding heart for the poor, and wish the minimum wage was higher. The poor need to work for their money, but their pay seems too low.
As far as the health care system, I got this at the UCLA Anderson Forecast. Christopher Thornberg said that one of the big problems in our country is our inefficient and expensive health care system.
From the UCLA Anderson May 2006 Forecast:
“Benefit payments now accountg for almost 1/5 of toal payroll earnings, up from less than 1/6 in 2001. …This is hardly surprising. Healthcare spending is on a double digit growth path get again…reaching a level of $6,280 per person in the US, about 20% of personal income. This is driving up health insurance costs…This is 60% more on a person-by-person basis than Switzerland – a nation that spends the second most on healthcare per person in the world. Oh, by the way, they [the Swiss] are on average older than we are and live longer than we do.
As a nation, we spend more money on publicly provided healthcare than Canada. …keep in mind that the sale of [pharmaceutical] products remains at about 10% of the total health bill, exactly what it was a decade ago. [Rising cost has nothing to do with drug costs.]
Most of the debate on the issue seems to focus on who is going to pay, but this misses the point. No matter who is paying, we all pay. If insurance pays, premiums rise. If employers pay, take home pay goes down. If the government pays, taxes go up.
The issue in the U.S. is that we have a wasteful system that encourages consumption that isn’t effective from a cost-benefit viewpoint. Until this fundamental issue is understood, nothing much will change.”
I heard an analysis on a KPBS talk show, and the author said that our health care premiums are so high because insurance covers non-catastrophic things like lab tests and office visits. If we had true health insurance, i.e. coverage for catastrophic events, then the premiums would be much less and more people would have insurance. He says why should insurance cover your office visit? It’s like your auto insurance covering your oil change. Do you have any idea how high auto insurance premiums would be if the insurance covered new tires, maintenance, oil changes?
I have compassion for the poor, and I donate money to organizations in India that feed and educate the poor. I dontated to a hospital in India, after I was fortunate to have a life-saving appendectomy a few years ago, realizing that had I lived in India’s back country, I would have died. Let’s all have a little compassion. Not everyone is fortunate enough to be born in an industrialized country, and not everyone has an IQ over 100. We have to provided work incentives and opportunities to all, unless we enjoy the power we get from being able to have them all as our servant class. I don’t get off on that kind of power trip.
ParticipantI got my first offer on my house from a couple that came over the day before we were available for showing. The house was on the MLS, but we were still making some yard improvements.
The house was a mess, the kitchen a disaster, as I hadn’t cleaned up from breakfast and was working outside. The people made an offer. They loved the house.
ParticipantJim had no business listing my personal information.
ParticipantThe weather has been unbearably hot at the coast, and worse inland. I was at the harbor and beach both days this weekend, and was miserable. It’s supposed to cool off this week.
Well, the inventory thing is surprising. It sounds like you actually have MORE listings. Here, we do not have more people listing, just inventory piling up because DOM is getting so long.
Here, the inventory is increasing because sales are down 30%. Last year at this time we had 16,000 inventory, and if we had last year’s sales rate, our inventory would be 16,000 now. But since sales are down, the inventory keeps piling up. I got this from Bob C. So our inventory is high because of low demand, not because more sellers are listing.
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