[powayseller]

Yes, a technical paper. The bankruptcy does refer to the inability of the US to pay those creditors which are its own citizens, but does not talk about its ability to pay the interest on treasury bills.

However, since when can you say, “I am not really bankrupt because although I am unable to pay my credit cards and auto loans, I still have enough money to pay my mortgage”. Does that make sense?

If you have to take away promised benefits to seniors, then you can avoid bankruptcy, just as the person in my example above can avoid bankruptcy if the auto dealer and credit card companies are happy to let the debt slide.

This kind of violates the definition of bankruptcy, no?

Also, what will happen to the tens of millions of seniors in poverty, who need the promised SS payments to avoid homelessness, and the promised Medicare benefits to get basic medical care? Will our seniors be cast aside like some useless old tires? Please don’t call me a socialist, but if we are not going to pay these promised benefits, let’s just say so right now, so people can plan their future accordingly.

SS was a great idea when only 5% of people lived to collect it. Now 60% of people live to collect it, and the government is spending it, instead of saving and letting it earn interest.

[powayseller]

Thanks drocto, my typo.

[powayseller]

I see… they need at least 20% equity to get a 30 year fixed. You can’t get a piggyback 20% on a 30 year fixed? And with prices dropping, the equity is not there. With higher rates, they can’t qualify for the payment, since the mortgage they have is already at their maximum payment ability.

If we wanted to conduct a foreclosure prevention campaign, then it wouldn’t be to switch these people to a fixed rate mortgage.

How can we help these people? I had thought of sending flyers to all the people in the lower income areas of Poway, where most foreclosures are occuring, or going to the Poway city council and telling them of the rising foreclosures in Poway, and discussing solutions. But I was wrong to think these people could be taught to refinance to a fixed mortgage.

[powayseller]

I only know about Poway: their general plan is to keep all their open space, all 13,000 acres (?). Poway has the most open space of any city in the County, and has turned away all developers, while Chula Vista embraced them. Poway gets lots of revenue from the auto dealerships on Poway Rd, and the Poway Industrial Park on Scripps Poway Parkway. All that can happen in Poway is infill projects, on various vacant lots.

I asked the City Assistant Manager, “Well, where will all the people live? Population is increasing”.

He answered, “Not in Poway. We don’t want to get any bigger”.

So, it becomes someone else’s problem… That doesn’t seem right to me. If our population keeps increasing, where will they live?

The County also has a general plan. Where I lived before off Highway 67, the area was zoned agricultural from Ramona to Lakeside. Minimum 4 acre lots. That entire area could be used for housing, but is not zoned for it, and the County has refused to change the general plan. The area is full of Preserves.

If you want to know more, talk to the planners at the County, and ask them where they think the increasing population will live. What does SANDAG think? This has puzzled me for some time. Will Chula Vista keep growing? Or Temecula? Will we keep building more highways so people can keep driving? This won’t work when we have $100 or $200 oil.

[powayseller]

Usually you pay 6 months interest as penalty if you refinance or sell during the first 2 or 3 years. This penalty has persuaded some people that I know, not to refinance, and hope that rates will come down again.

If any loan officers are around, please jump in…

[powayseller]

This is the 4th year in a row that the Bush administration came out with anticipated high budget deficits at the beginning of the year, and then revised them downward in the summer, saying “Our deficit shrank”. Well, if revising your forecast is shrinking… The truth is, compared to last year, the deficit is higher. Word games do not change the fact that the deficit is growing.

This smoke and mirrors game has been covered by some of the more clever newspapers, like the LA Times.

It’s just another gimmick of an administration that works hard to fool us about the true state of the economy. Not picking on Bush – they all do this…

[powayseller]

SD Realtor, do you tell the guy that these other brokers are doing a “bait and switch” on the price? They mislead you – they promise high prices, and then chase the market down? Second, does the seller understand real estate pricing? The price is set by the market, not by brochures. When the seller looks at homes, would he pay more for a home because he saw it featured in a brochure?

It sounds like so much of your job is seller education.

[powayseller]

Here’s another guy in Nevada, who lost his retirement nest egg when his mortgage broker went bankrupt. The guy invested in real estate trust deeds with Global Express. What is going on with trust deeds in Nevada? Is this nationwide?

It seems each state has its unique problems: construction defects in FL because FL law allows large builders to hire their own inspectors (Lennar class action lawsuit?), trust deeds in NV…

[powayseller]

SD Realtor, you seem to be doing well, despite 30% fewer sales in San Diego. I don’t want to be nosy or nosey, but do you think that you can keep your sales and volume up in this market? What do you think of my idea that David Lereah should start promoting transactions, instead of plateuing prices? He needs to tell sellers to lower their prices, so that we can get increase sales. Isn’t he supposed to represent realtors? His talk is more helpful to homeowners and investors, than to realtors. Why do you pay your dues to NAR, if he doesn’t represent your interests?

[powayseller]

Thanks for that response, SD Realtor. I remember the days when I was on my computer and my toddler would push the buttons and turn it off. Now they are older and instead of throwing tomatoes they put them in the salad, and make dinner, while I while my time away at piggington. Come on Mom, you’re on that computer again! is what I hear.

[powayseller]

We have to agree to disagree.

[powayseller]

Interesting stuff, sdr. I think all this open space is Preserve. With all the butterfly laws in CA, it would be hard to build anything, anywhere.

As far as the jobs data, I am on the auto-email list from the San Diego Department of Labor, courtesy of Cheryl Mason. She’s an amazing person. She told me that there is no new job growth in SD, and mostly it’s been in real estate stuff and retail. No promise of new jobs coming down the pike. When I spoke to her in May, there was still hope of Homeland Security funding, but that didn’t materialize. She said there could be some jobs related to new port construction, or maybe biotech would take off again. So don’t believe all those government projections, they are BS.

Anyway, the Excel file has all the jobs data by industry back to 1992. I can look up any industry that far back. That is the payroll survey, i.e. they get the data by asking large employers about the payroll. So they miss start-ups and private contractors, which is where the realtors and many loan officers and contractors are found. This data is hard to interpret, because it is grouped by industry. If you are a janitor for a law firm, your job is under “Legal”. Back to the point: high tech industry.
Professional and Business Services has 211,000 employees. In this group, is Scientific Research and Development (includes biotech?) of 25,100; Telecom has 15,400 but this category includes carriers, resellers, and Other, so I’m not sure if the engineers are here or in PBS.
Real Estate and Leasing has 30,700.
Retail has 145,500

This is most recent press release that Cheryl Mason e-mailed me.

State of California June 16, 2006
EMPLOYMENT DEVELOPMENT DEPARTMENT
Labor Market Information Division Contact: Cheryl Mason
8977 Activity Rd., Suite A (858) 689-6544
San Diego, CA 92126

SAN DIEGO-CARLSBAD-SAN MARCOS METROPOLITAN STATISTICAL AREA
(SAN DIEGO COUNTY)
San Diego adds 5,300 jobs over the month; 17,500 jobs over the year

The unemployment rate in San Diego County remained stable at 3.7 percent in April and May 2006, and below the year-ago estimate of 4.1 percent. This compares with an unadjusted unemployment rate of 4.6 percent for California and 4.4 percent for the nation during the same period.
Between April 2006 and May 2006, nonfarm wage and salary employment in San Diego County rose by 5,300 jobs to reach 1,302,500 jobs.
• Construction recorded the largest increase (up 1,800 jobs), with growth occurring mostly in specialty trade contractor services where many electricians, carpenters and other trades are classified.
• Leisure and hospitality added 1,300 as employers continued to ramp up staffing for the summer tourist season. Accommodation and food services expanded by 800 jobs and arts, entertainment and recreation expanded by 500 jobs.
• Trade, transportation and utilities grew by 1,000 jobs, with 60 percent of the gain in retail trade.
Between May 2005 and May 2006, total nonfarm employment was up by 17,500 jobs, an increase of 1.4 percent.
• Leisure and hospitality recorded the largest increase (up 5,100 jobs). The job gains were concentrated in accommodation and food services.
• Construction grew by 4,300 jobs, with most of the increase occurring in the specialty trade contractors sector.
• Educational and health services added 2,800 jobs since May of last year. Approximately 85 percent of the job growth occurred in health services, primarily in offices of doctors and other health practitioners.

[powayseller]

Best quotes of these articles. The first is about bubble psychology, the 2nd shows how dire it was. Could this happen in San Diego? Boarded up condos?

Once it was admitted that it might just be possible that real estate would not go up forever, the essential spirit of prepetuity that every bubble needs was gone. Buyers became fewer and more choosy. Houses that once sold in a week stood unsold for a year. As demand fell, prices stopped rising, then began to fall.

And, of course, all bubbles, in every commodity, whether it is land or stock or gold on tulips, always end some time. No matter how sure people are that their particular rocket will always go up and never come down, it always happens. A word to the wise

My pal Jerry P. just bought a condominium in Century City, in Beverly Hills, for 60 percent of what it sold for in 1980. Down the street from me here in the Hollywood hills, four houses have been on the market since 1981. The asking prices now are about one-third less than they were three years ago. Up and down Sunset Boulevard in West Hollywood, apartment houses that were converted to condos lie empty, boarded up, not one unit sold, in bankruptcy, with banks holding title.

[powayseller]

LookOut, you’ve made it clear you don’t like me over the past months. But please, let’s stay on topic. Did you read my thread at all? It’s full of surprise at my friend’s claims…

[powayseller]

HELOC is a secured loan, secured by your home. that’s why it requires an appraisal, and you can write off the interest on your taxes.

Unsecured loans carry a higher interest rate. I wonder, what is the interest rate on a VISA vs. on a HELOC.

[Author]

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