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PerryChase
ParticipantEvidence that drywall prices are coming down. Ray, were is your evidence that construction materials are “dramatically” up?
“If the last two cycles are any guide, USG’s price for 1,000 square feet of drywall could plummet from its high of $188.37 during last year’s third quarter to about $95, even as the volume of drywall USG and its competitors sell also declines steeply. ”
ParticipantEvidence that drywall prices are coming down. Ray, were is your evidence that construction materials are “dramatically” up?
“If the last two cycles are any guide, USG’s price for 1,000 square feet of drywall could plummet from its high of $188.37 during last year’s third quarter to about $95, even as the volume of drywall USG and its competitors sell also declines steeply. ”
ParticipantEvidence that drywall prices are coming down. Ray, were is your evidence that construction materials are “dramatically” up?
“If the last two cycles are any guide, USG’s price for 1,000 square feet of drywall could plummet from its high of $188.37 during last year’s third quarter to about $95, even as the volume of drywall USG and its competitors sell also declines steeply. ”
ParticipantRay, commodities prices are down from the boom years.
As demand drops, commodity prices drop as well.
Here are the prices for lumber. Look and compare to 2004 prices.
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=527When construction slows, constractors cut their profit margins just to keep their crews busy. That happens every time in every downturn.
Construction costs are going down, not up.
It sounds like you’re bringing up the replacement cost of buildings argument. Well, there are plenty parts of America where houses have droped below replacement costs. In Detroit houses are selling below the cost of building a new house so the cost of land is actually negative. But there are still no buyers.
As far as entitlements go, they are part of the cost of land and have nothing to with the physical buildings themselves.
ParticipantRay, commodities prices are down from the boom years.
As demand drops, commodity prices drop as well.
Here are the prices for lumber. Look and compare to 2004 prices.
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=527When construction slows, constractors cut their profit margins just to keep their crews busy. That happens every time in every downturn.
Construction costs are going down, not up.
It sounds like you’re bringing up the replacement cost of buildings argument. Well, there are plenty parts of America where houses have droped below replacement costs. In Detroit houses are selling below the cost of building a new house so the cost of land is actually negative. But there are still no buyers.
As far as entitlements go, they are part of the cost of land and have nothing to with the physical buildings themselves.
ParticipantRay, commodities prices are down from the boom years.
As demand drops, commodity prices drop as well.
Here are the prices for lumber. Look and compare to 2004 prices.
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?genericContentID=527When construction slows, constractors cut their profit margins just to keep their crews busy. That happens every time in every downturn.
Construction costs are going down, not up.
It sounds like you’re bringing up the replacement cost of buildings argument. Well, there are plenty parts of America where houses have droped below replacement costs. In Detroit houses are selling below the cost of building a new house so the cost of land is actually negative. But there are still no buyers.
As far as entitlements go, they are part of the cost of land and have nothing to with the physical buildings themselves.
ParticipantThe topic came up because Alex seems to think that people will move to San Diego in droves and that will keep our real estate prices high.
I compared San Diego to air conditioning. It’s reliable and keeps your environment nice and comfortable. Once we have it, we can’t do without it (as society) but we take it for granted. Nobody says, wow, A/C is so great!
To me San Diego is a good car like a Toyota Camry. It’s perfectly manufactured. You can rely on it and it’ll never give you trouble. It’s boring but the Camry provides the best value for the money. It’s no sexy Mazerati that’ll get your heart racing a little (and also require lots of repairs and money).
The big problem is the San Diego Camry is priced at BMW prices. Therefore, there’s no value for the money in San Diego. Rich people buy BMW and other expensive makes.
Likewise, rich people who have the money to relocate on a whim, tend to live in interesting places because they can afford to insulate themselves against all the discomfort and hassles of daily life.
I live in San Diego because, for a major city, things are easy here. I can go to Home Depot, buy things and bring them back easily. The weather is nice and I can to the beach, etc.. Those are the positive aspects of San Diego. But those positives are not attractive enough for the very rich to relocate here. Those positives are also priced too high for there to be legions of middle class workers clamoring for a relocation to San Diego.
For me, I need to get out of San Diego once in a while because the culture here sucks.
ParticipantThe topic came up because Alex seems to think that people will move to San Diego in droves and that will keep our real estate prices high.
I compared San Diego to air conditioning. It’s reliable and keeps your environment nice and comfortable. Once we have it, we can’t do without it (as society) but we take it for granted. Nobody says, wow, A/C is so great!
To me San Diego is a good car like a Toyota Camry. It’s perfectly manufactured. You can rely on it and it’ll never give you trouble. It’s boring but the Camry provides the best value for the money. It’s no sexy Mazerati that’ll get your heart racing a little (and also require lots of repairs and money).
The big problem is the San Diego Camry is priced at BMW prices. Therefore, there’s no value for the money in San Diego. Rich people buy BMW and other expensive makes.
Likewise, rich people who have the money to relocate on a whim, tend to live in interesting places because they can afford to insulate themselves against all the discomfort and hassles of daily life.
I live in San Diego because, for a major city, things are easy here. I can go to Home Depot, buy things and bring them back easily. The weather is nice and I can to the beach, etc.. Those are the positive aspects of San Diego. But those positives are not attractive enough for the very rich to relocate here. Those positives are also priced too high for there to be legions of middle class workers clamoring for a relocation to San Diego.
For me, I need to get out of San Diego once in a while because the culture here sucks.
ParticipantThe topic came up because Alex seems to think that people will move to San Diego in droves and that will keep our real estate prices high.
I compared San Diego to air conditioning. It’s reliable and keeps your environment nice and comfortable. Once we have it, we can’t do without it (as society) but we take it for granted. Nobody says, wow, A/C is so great!
To me San Diego is a good car like a Toyota Camry. It’s perfectly manufactured. You can rely on it and it’ll never give you trouble. It’s boring but the Camry provides the best value for the money. It’s no sexy Mazerati that’ll get your heart racing a little (and also require lots of repairs and money).
The big problem is the San Diego Camry is priced at BMW prices. Therefore, there’s no value for the money in San Diego. Rich people buy BMW and other expensive makes.
Likewise, rich people who have the money to relocate on a whim, tend to live in interesting places because they can afford to insulate themselves against all the discomfort and hassles of daily life.
I live in San Diego because, for a major city, things are easy here. I can go to Home Depot, buy things and bring them back easily. The weather is nice and I can to the beach, etc.. Those are the positive aspects of San Diego. But those positives are not attractive enough for the very rich to relocate here. Those positives are also priced too high for there to be legions of middle class workers clamoring for a relocation to San Diego.
For me, I need to get out of San Diego once in a while because the culture here sucks.
ParticipantI think of San Diego as air-conditioning. Living in SD is like living in a well air-conditioned house. Thanks to the weather, it always feels the same, boring but very comfortable and, well… boring. Everything has a Fashion Valley, Disneyland-esque feeling (that’s because The OC is kinda like the same but SD is better).
I agree, lniles, San Diego is definitely not a cultural mecca. Your description of restaurants and museums is right on.
My foreign friends who visit San Diego get bored in a few days. They feel trapped because they can’t go anywhere by themselves. Can’t even catch a cab to hang out in the city.
San Diego is comfortable but soul-less and impersonal. But it’s a physically comfortable, easy to live in place.
My all time favorite city is Paris, France. I don’t mind living there 1/2 of the year then come back to San Diego’ to my comfortable bubble, when it’s cold. Maybe a goal for retirement.
NYC would be my favorite American city but you need a lot of money to live there and to insulate yourself from the elements and the urban grunge. I love NYC urban fashion but you can’t wear that in SD.
It’s always good to travel and get out of San Diego to see what you’re missing in the world. It gives you a better perspective of what SD truly is compared to other cities in the world. We do some things pretty well but we’re not the greatest.
ParticipantI think of San Diego as air-conditioning. Living in SD is like living in a well air-conditioned house. Thanks to the weather, it always feels the same, boring but very comfortable and, well… boring. Everything has a Fashion Valley, Disneyland-esque feeling (that’s because The OC is kinda like the same but SD is better).
I agree, lniles, San Diego is definitely not a cultural mecca. Your description of restaurants and museums is right on.
My foreign friends who visit San Diego get bored in a few days. They feel trapped because they can’t go anywhere by themselves. Can’t even catch a cab to hang out in the city.
San Diego is comfortable but soul-less and impersonal. But it’s a physically comfortable, easy to live in place.
My all time favorite city is Paris, France. I don’t mind living there 1/2 of the year then come back to San Diego’ to my comfortable bubble, when it’s cold. Maybe a goal for retirement.
NYC would be my favorite American city but you need a lot of money to live there and to insulate yourself from the elements and the urban grunge. I love NYC urban fashion but you can’t wear that in SD.
It’s always good to travel and get out of San Diego to see what you’re missing in the world. It gives you a better perspective of what SD truly is compared to other cities in the world. We do some things pretty well but we’re not the greatest.
ParticipantI think of San Diego as air-conditioning. Living in SD is like living in a well air-conditioned house. Thanks to the weather, it always feels the same, boring but very comfortable and, well… boring. Everything has a Fashion Valley, Disneyland-esque feeling (that’s because The OC is kinda like the same but SD is better).
I agree, lniles, San Diego is definitely not a cultural mecca. Your description of restaurants and museums is right on.
My foreign friends who visit San Diego get bored in a few days. They feel trapped because they can’t go anywhere by themselves. Can’t even catch a cab to hang out in the city.
San Diego is comfortable but soul-less and impersonal. But it’s a physically comfortable, easy to live in place.
My all time favorite city is Paris, France. I don’t mind living there 1/2 of the year then come back to San Diego’ to my comfortable bubble, when it’s cold. Maybe a goal for retirement.
NYC would be my favorite American city but you need a lot of money to live there and to insulate yourself from the elements and the urban grunge. I love NYC urban fashion but you can’t wear that in SD.
It’s always good to travel and get out of San Diego to see what you’re missing in the world. It gives you a better perspective of what SD truly is compared to other cities in the world. We do some things pretty well but we’re not the greatest.
Participantvrudny, you were smart to marry a hot Chinese woman. She’ll stay young, beautiful and thin for a long time. I come across as shallow also so I know what you mean. 🙂
I’m sure she’s very intelligent as well. No wonder you’re able to take advantage of investment opportunities in China.
BTW, I agree with your post on the rise of China on a different thread.
Your kids will definitely have a leg up in the 21st Century. Make sure they spend the summmers in China learning Mandarin.
About Vancouver, I don’t love the city for the weather. I love it for winter sports and for the excellent chinese food. Downtown Vancouver is also pretty nice.
Participantvrudny, you were smart to marry a hot Chinese woman. She’ll stay young, beautiful and thin for a long time. I come across as shallow also so I know what you mean. 🙂
I’m sure she’s very intelligent as well. No wonder you’re able to take advantage of investment opportunities in China.
BTW, I agree with your post on the rise of China on a different thread.
Your kids will definitely have a leg up in the 21st Century. Make sure they spend the summmers in China learning Mandarin.
About Vancouver, I don’t love the city for the weather. I love it for winter sports and for the excellent chinese food. Downtown Vancouver is also pretty nice.
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