[patientrenter]

PD,

I like your metaphor. I hope for your sake that it moves faster in the fall. But you’re in Coronado, and that’s the high that seems to be stuck at 32 degrees right now. Do you think new buyers in your area are traditional move-ups from elsewhere in CA, or are they more well-off out-of-staters? Eventually they’ll all get cold feet, but I’m afraid it might take quite a while longer.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

PD,

I like your metaphor. I hope for your sake that it moves faster in the fall. But you’re in Coronado, and that’s the high that seems to be stuck at 32 degrees right now. Do you think new buyers in your area are traditional move-ups from elsewhere in CA, or are they more well-off out-of-staters? Eventually they’ll all get cold feet, but I’m afraid it might take quite a while longer.

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Chris,

w_a_d is just having a little fun at yours and jg’s expense. I’d say there are some people out there who think the technical analysis you’re using is equivalent to astrology. I’ll stay neutral in my ringside seat as the chains get yanked in the ring!

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Chris,

w_a_d is just having a little fun at yours and jg’s expense. I’d say there are some people out there who think the technical analysis you’re using is equivalent to astrology. I’ll stay neutral in my ringside seat as the chains get yanked in the ring!

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Updated summary:

# | Contributor | Trigger%* | Comments
1 | patientrenter | 65% | (350 / 550) East Costa Mesa
2 | BuyerWillEPB | ?% | (300 / 2003 Price = ?)
3 | temeculaguy | 67% | Of current resale home prices
4 | stansd | 75% | Without inflation adjustment
5 | PD | 80% | Coronado
6 | golfproz | 65% | (550 / 850)
7 | eccen in esc | 75% | (450 / 600) N. SD County. E of I15. 2 ac+
8 | jg | 18% | Can wait 10 years
9 | kev374 | 50% | (325 / 650) So. OC
10 | JohnAlt91941 | 60% | (300 / 500) La Mesa
11 | no_such_reality | 50% | East Costa Mesa / Old Irvine

* Most likely trigger price as % of current price for most likely future purchase

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Updated summary:

# | Contributor | Trigger%* | Comments
1 | patientrenter | 65% | (350 / 550) East Costa Mesa
2 | BuyerWillEPB | ?% | (300 / 2003 Price = ?)
3 | temeculaguy | 67% | Of current resale home prices
4 | stansd | 75% | Without inflation adjustment
5 | PD | 80% | Coronado
6 | golfproz | 65% | (550 / 850)
7 | eccen in esc | 75% | (450 / 600) N. SD County. E of I15. 2 ac+
8 | jg | 18% | Can wait 10 years
9 | kev374 | 50% | (325 / 650) So. OC
10 | JohnAlt91941 | 60% | (300 / 500) La Mesa
11 | no_such_reality | 50% | East Costa Mesa / Old Irvine

* Most likely trigger price as % of current price for most likely future purchase

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Thanks JohnAlt (in La Mesa?).

What’s your best estimate of the current price of the property you’re thinking of buying for $300K in the future? (So I can get that % value I referred to in the survey question.)

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Thanks JohnAlt (in La Mesa?).

What’s your best estimate of the current price of the property you’re thinking of buying for $300K in the future? (So I can get that % value I referred to in the survey question.)

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

SD Realtor,

Sorry, looks like my survey question was not very clear. I should have anticipated this from all the other surveys I’ve been involved in.

I don’t know how many people will be basing their purchase decision primarily on the % price decline. For me, it will be only one of many factors, just as appears to be the case for you.

My question is, considering all the complicated economic and personal factors that go into your own decisions, at the end of the day, what’s your best guess at what the price will be when you buy divided by the current price (based on what the most comparable properties are selling for today)?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

SD Realtor,

Sorry, looks like my survey question was not very clear. I should have anticipated this from all the other surveys I’ve been involved in.

I don’t know how many people will be basing their purchase decision primarily on the % price decline. For me, it will be only one of many factors, just as appears to be the case for you.

My question is, considering all the complicated economic and personal factors that go into your own decisions, at the end of the day, what’s your best guess at what the price will be when you buy divided by the current price (based on what the most comparable properties are selling for today)?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Thanks to the 8 other contributors to date.

Here are the summary results so far:

# | Contributor | Trigger%* | Comments
1 | patientrenter | 65% | Eastside Costa Mesa
2 | BuyerWillEPB | ?% | (300 / 2003 Price = ?)
3 | temeculaguy | 67% | Of current resale home prices
4 | stansd | 75% | Without inflation adjustment
5 | PD | 80% | Coronado
6 | golfproz | 65% | (550 / 850)
7 | eccen in esc | 75% | (450 / ?)
8 | jg | 18% | Can wait 10 years
9 | kev374 | 50% | So. OC

*Most likely trigger price as % of current price for most likely future purchase

eccen in esc, did I get you right at pulling the trigger at 75% of today’s prices, or was that 75% off today’s prices?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

Thanks to the 8 other contributors to date.

Here are the summary results so far:

# | Contributor | Trigger%* | Comments
1 | patientrenter | 65% | Eastside Costa Mesa
2 | BuyerWillEPB | ?% | (300 / 2003 Price = ?)
3 | temeculaguy | 67% | Of current resale home prices
4 | stansd | 75% | Without inflation adjustment
5 | PD | 80% | Coronado
6 | golfproz | 65% | (550 / 850)
7 | eccen in esc | 75% | (450 / ?)
8 | jg | 18% | Can wait 10 years
9 | kev374 | 50% | So. OC

*Most likely trigger price as % of current price for most likely future purchase

eccen in esc, did I get you right at pulling the trigger at 75% of today’s prices, or was that 75% off today’s prices?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

BuyerWEPB,

Thanks for that. What % of current prices does that translate to?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

BuyerWEPB,

Thanks for that. What % of current prices does that translate to?

Patient renter in OC

[patientrenter]

nsr,

You paint a scenario of banks (or investors for whom the banks are administering mortgages) beginning to lower REO prices only when the market punishes them by lowering their own stock/loan values. I agree. Is there anything that could prevent that from just playing out over time as most of us here expect (or hope)?

This last week we saw a concerted private bank effort to avoid a melt-down in sub-prime loan values. For a modest infusion of bank capital, a melt-down was averted. If this continues for a long time, banks and others will eventually run out of capital they want to put at risk.

But the federal government has pockets deep enough at that point to put up a very powerful resistance to significant further drops in home prices, and even increase them. Imagine a new program from FNMA that insures loans up to $850,000 with 1% down and no principal payable for the first 10 years, based on the buyer solemnly swearing that he or she has the income to make the payments. How many congressmen would vote against that if home prices were down 20% across a large part of the country? How many lobbying dollars would swing behind that? How would that make the CEO of FNMA look in front of the court of public opinion and congress?

I think we have to be realistic here and realize that, barring an additional powerful downward kick from some unanticipated force, like a global recession, the only circumstance under which house prices in Southern California will drop severely is if the severe drops are restricted to a small fraction of the whole country. Any scenario that would cause a severe drop in home prices for a large number of voters nationwide will be met with very powerful countermeasures.

I realize the federal government is not all-powerful, and anything it does will have downsides that will be considered before decisions are made, but 50 million voters ‘losing’ $100,000 or more each and pounding angrily on the doors of the committees in congress will tilt the debate pretty sharply.

Anyone see a reason this couldn’t or wouldn’t happen? (I already buy into the “shouldn’t”, so this is not a question of what’s right or wrong politically, only what’s most likely.)

Patient renter in OC

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