[patientrenter]

With 3% down FHA loans available, and buyer tax credits on top of that, and possibly some kickbacks to the buyer from their agent or the builder of whoever, and no recourse beyond the house, why wouldn’t lots of people buy?

It’s the taxpayers who are buying homes now, with the adjustment that they are giving any future upside gain to the people who live in them. Gotta “save the economy”, ya know.

[patientrenter]

With 3% down FHA loans available, and buyer tax credits on top of that, and possibly some kickbacks to the buyer from their agent or the builder of whoever, and no recourse beyond the house, why wouldn’t lots of people buy?

It’s the taxpayers who are buying homes now, with the adjustment that they are giving any future upside gain to the people who live in them. Gotta “save the economy”, ya know.

[patientrenter]

With 3% down FHA loans available, and buyer tax credits on top of that, and possibly some kickbacks to the buyer from their agent or the builder of whoever, and no recourse beyond the house, why wouldn’t lots of people buy?

It’s the taxpayers who are buying homes now, with the adjustment that they are giving any future upside gain to the people who live in them. Gotta “save the economy”, ya know.

[patientrenter]

With 3% down FHA loans available, and buyer tax credits on top of that, and possibly some kickbacks to the buyer from their agent or the builder of whoever, and no recourse beyond the house, why wouldn’t lots of people buy?

It’s the taxpayers who are buying homes now, with the adjustment that they are giving any future upside gain to the people who live in them. Gotta “save the economy”, ya know.

[patientrenter]

[[email protected]]I’m a wine country ranch owner, been here 12 years, poured every last dollar into my 2.5 acre beauty. Used it as an ATM. It’s the best spot on earth and was valued at a million at the peak of the bubble. The poster is right – denial is strong here. It’s difficult to admit that we are “under water” but I can’t keep justifying throwing money away so I am considering short-selling or foreclosure. The horse culture is passionate, but at least two of the big ranches in Valle des los Caballos are for sale and one is for lease.[/quote]

Smart moves. Buy low (1997), HELOC every dollar out of the gain to peak since then, and walk away from the downturn. This is how to use the system for maximum personal gain. All made possible by the US taxpayer, thanks to the controllers of the public purse, the US Congress.

[patientrenter]

[[email protected]]I’m a wine country ranch owner, been here 12 years, poured every last dollar into my 2.5 acre beauty. Used it as an ATM. It’s the best spot on earth and was valued at a million at the peak of the bubble. The poster is right – denial is strong here. It’s difficult to admit that we are “under water” but I can’t keep justifying throwing money away so I am considering short-selling or foreclosure. The horse culture is passionate, but at least two of the big ranches in Valle des los Caballos are for sale and one is for lease.[/quote]

Smart moves. Buy low (1997), HELOC every dollar out of the gain to peak since then, and walk away from the downturn. This is how to use the system for maximum personal gain. All made possible by the US taxpayer, thanks to the controllers of the public purse, the US Congress.

[patientrenter]

[[email protected]]I’m a wine country ranch owner, been here 12 years, poured every last dollar into my 2.5 acre beauty. Used it as an ATM. It’s the best spot on earth and was valued at a million at the peak of the bubble. The poster is right – denial is strong here. It’s difficult to admit that we are “under water” but I can’t keep justifying throwing money away so I am considering short-selling or foreclosure. The horse culture is passionate, but at least two of the big ranches in Valle des los Caballos are for sale and one is for lease.[/quote]

Smart moves. Buy low (1997), HELOC every dollar out of the gain to peak since then, and walk away from the downturn. This is how to use the system for maximum personal gain. All made possible by the US taxpayer, thanks to the controllers of the public purse, the US Congress.

[patientrenter]

[[email protected]]I’m a wine country ranch owner, been here 12 years, poured every last dollar into my 2.5 acre beauty. Used it as an ATM. It’s the best spot on earth and was valued at a million at the peak of the bubble. The poster is right – denial is strong here. It’s difficult to admit that we are “under water” but I can’t keep justifying throwing money away so I am considering short-selling or foreclosure. The horse culture is passionate, but at least two of the big ranches in Valle des los Caballos are for sale and one is for lease.[/quote]

Smart moves. Buy low (1997), HELOC every dollar out of the gain to peak since then, and walk away from the downturn. This is how to use the system for maximum personal gain. All made possible by the US taxpayer, thanks to the controllers of the public purse, the US Congress.

[patientrenter]

[[email protected]]I’m a wine country ranch owner, been here 12 years, poured every last dollar into my 2.5 acre beauty. Used it as an ATM. It’s the best spot on earth and was valued at a million at the peak of the bubble. The poster is right – denial is strong here. It’s difficult to admit that we are “under water” but I can’t keep justifying throwing money away so I am considering short-selling or foreclosure. The horse culture is passionate, but at least two of the big ranches in Valle des los Caballos are for sale and one is for lease.[/quote]

Smart moves. Buy low (1997), HELOC every dollar out of the gain to peak since then, and walk away from the downturn. This is how to use the system for maximum personal gain. All made possible by the US taxpayer, thanks to the controllers of the public purse, the US Congress.

[patientrenter]

[quote=davelj]

If you go back and look at the data from the late-70s and early-80s when inflation was really raging… housing prices went way up… despite the fact that interest rates went way up as well. Rents were going up at the same time.

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s important to have sub-6% mortgage rates for the next 12-18 months as we clear out most of the foreclosure detritus, but I don’t think higher rates are going to have much impact on prices 2+ years out. May keep them from going up, but I think prices will be largely stabilized by then. And while some may say that buying now in anticipation of higher rates later is a “buying panic,” it’ll sure clear out a lot of inventory. Rightly or wrongly, anyone with a long-term view is more “payment sensitive” than “principal-balance sensitive.”[/quote]

You may be right. My answer was to a hypothetical question. As I mentioned, I don’t think 8% interest rates will be tolerated, so I am not predicting that any of the consequences of an 8% rate will actually occur. I don’t think they will, because I don’t think we’ll see the 8%.

Things change if the Fed etc can get inflation up to a high enough level, because then house prices will not be reduced by 8% interest rates, and that will enable the Fed to tolerate 8% rates. It would be the 1970’s all over again. I think we are likely to see a repeat of the 1970’s in inflation and growth rates, but my expectation was that it would take more than 2 years to go from where we are now to near-10% CPI inflation.

[patientrenter]

[quote=davelj]

If you go back and look at the data from the late-70s and early-80s when inflation was really raging… housing prices went way up… despite the fact that interest rates went way up as well. Rents were going up at the same time.

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s important to have sub-6% mortgage rates for the next 12-18 months as we clear out most of the foreclosure detritus, but I don’t think higher rates are going to have much impact on prices 2+ years out. May keep them from going up, but I think prices will be largely stabilized by then. And while some may say that buying now in anticipation of higher rates later is a “buying panic,” it’ll sure clear out a lot of inventory. Rightly or wrongly, anyone with a long-term view is more “payment sensitive” than “principal-balance sensitive.”[/quote]

You may be right. My answer was to a hypothetical question. As I mentioned, I don’t think 8% interest rates will be tolerated, so I am not predicting that any of the consequences of an 8% rate will actually occur. I don’t think they will, because I don’t think we’ll see the 8%.

Things change if the Fed etc can get inflation up to a high enough level, because then house prices will not be reduced by 8% interest rates, and that will enable the Fed to tolerate 8% rates. It would be the 1970’s all over again. I think we are likely to see a repeat of the 1970’s in inflation and growth rates, but my expectation was that it would take more than 2 years to go from where we are now to near-10% CPI inflation.

[patientrenter]

[quote=davelj]

If you go back and look at the data from the late-70s and early-80s when inflation was really raging… housing prices went way up… despite the fact that interest rates went way up as well. Rents were going up at the same time.

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s important to have sub-6% mortgage rates for the next 12-18 months as we clear out most of the foreclosure detritus, but I don’t think higher rates are going to have much impact on prices 2+ years out. May keep them from going up, but I think prices will be largely stabilized by then. And while some may say that buying now in anticipation of higher rates later is a “buying panic,” it’ll sure clear out a lot of inventory. Rightly or wrongly, anyone with a long-term view is more “payment sensitive” than “principal-balance sensitive.”[/quote]

You may be right. My answer was to a hypothetical question. As I mentioned, I don’t think 8% interest rates will be tolerated, so I am not predicting that any of the consequences of an 8% rate will actually occur. I don’t think they will, because I don’t think we’ll see the 8%.

Things change if the Fed etc can get inflation up to a high enough level, because then house prices will not be reduced by 8% interest rates, and that will enable the Fed to tolerate 8% rates. It would be the 1970’s all over again. I think we are likely to see a repeat of the 1970’s in inflation and growth rates, but my expectation was that it would take more than 2 years to go from where we are now to near-10% CPI inflation.

[patientrenter]

[quote=davelj]

If you go back and look at the data from the late-70s and early-80s when inflation was really raging… housing prices went way up… despite the fact that interest rates went way up as well. Rents were going up at the same time.

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s important to have sub-6% mortgage rates for the next 12-18 months as we clear out most of the foreclosure detritus, but I don’t think higher rates are going to have much impact on prices 2+ years out. May keep them from going up, but I think prices will be largely stabilized by then. And while some may say that buying now in anticipation of higher rates later is a “buying panic,” it’ll sure clear out a lot of inventory. Rightly or wrongly, anyone with a long-term view is more “payment sensitive” than “principal-balance sensitive.”[/quote]

You may be right. My answer was to a hypothetical question. As I mentioned, I don’t think 8% interest rates will be tolerated, so I am not predicting that any of the consequences of an 8% rate will actually occur. I don’t think they will, because I don’t think we’ll see the 8%.

Things change if the Fed etc can get inflation up to a high enough level, because then house prices will not be reduced by 8% interest rates, and that will enable the Fed to tolerate 8% rates. It would be the 1970’s all over again. I think we are likely to see a repeat of the 1970’s in inflation and growth rates, but my expectation was that it would take more than 2 years to go from where we are now to near-10% CPI inflation.

[patientrenter]

[quote=davelj]

If you go back and look at the data from the late-70s and early-80s when inflation was really raging… housing prices went way up… despite the fact that interest rates went way up as well. Rents were going up at the same time.

Don’t get me wrong, I think it’s important to have sub-6% mortgage rates for the next 12-18 months as we clear out most of the foreclosure detritus, but I don’t think higher rates are going to have much impact on prices 2+ years out. May keep them from going up, but I think prices will be largely stabilized by then. And while some may say that buying now in anticipation of higher rates later is a “buying panic,” it’ll sure clear out a lot of inventory. Rightly or wrongly, anyone with a long-term view is more “payment sensitive” than “principal-balance sensitive.”[/quote]

You may be right. My answer was to a hypothetical question. As I mentioned, I don’t think 8% interest rates will be tolerated, so I am not predicting that any of the consequences of an 8% rate will actually occur. I don’t think they will, because I don’t think we’ll see the 8%.

Things change if the Fed etc can get inflation up to a high enough level, because then house prices will not be reduced by 8% interest rates, and that will enable the Fed to tolerate 8% rates. It would be the 1970’s all over again. I think we are likely to see a repeat of the 1970’s in inflation and growth rates, but my expectation was that it would take more than 2 years to go from where we are now to near-10% CPI inflation.

[patientrenter]

I am not sure that differences between the Dems and the Reps on the bailouts are as big as the similarities. Both will bail out the banks for as much as is needed. It is true that Reps let one large bank (Lehman) go to the wall, and that count is really two when you count Bear Stearns being forced to sell itself to JPM. But both are determined to flood the economy with whatever it takes to reflate asset prices, and keep 90% of the banks afloat. Maybe it’s 99% for Dems (counted by size of assets), but that’s not much difference.

I am sure there are people on both sides who are convinced that only one party is right, but I think they are both wrong.

[Author]

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