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July 7, 2009 at 6:55 PM in reply to: U.S. Home Prices to Fall Through 2011’s First Quarter (Bloomberg News) #426842July 7, 2009 at 6:55 PM in reply to: U.S. Home Prices to Fall Through 2011’s First Quarter (Bloomberg News) #427129
patientrenter
Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan]…..There are other interesting things in their report.
Their affordability index for San Diego for 1Q 2009 is 131*. This index is based on affordability relative to 1995. The interpretation is that housing in SD in 1Q 2009 was significantly more affordable than in 1995…..[/quote]
Affordability as measured here can be misleading. Prices are higher than in 1995, even when compared to wages. So homes are less affordable for cash buyers. But if you’re paying using other people’s money, and don’t plan to repay it any time soon, then lower interest rates makes a purchase more affordable.
July 7, 2009 at 6:55 PM in reply to: U.S. Home Prices to Fall Through 2011’s First Quarter (Bloomberg News) #427201Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan]…..There are other interesting things in their report.
Their affordability index for San Diego for 1Q 2009 is 131*. This index is based on affordability relative to 1995. The interpretation is that housing in SD in 1Q 2009 was significantly more affordable than in 1995…..[/quote]
Affordability as measured here can be misleading. Prices are higher than in 1995, even when compared to wages. So homes are less affordable for cash buyers. But if you’re paying using other people’s money, and don’t plan to repay it any time soon, then lower interest rates makes a purchase more affordable.
July 7, 2009 at 6:55 PM in reply to: U.S. Home Prices to Fall Through 2011’s First Quarter (Bloomberg News) #427363Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan]…..There are other interesting things in their report.
Their affordability index for San Diego for 1Q 2009 is 131*. This index is based on affordability relative to 1995. The interpretation is that housing in SD in 1Q 2009 was significantly more affordable than in 1995…..[/quote]
Affordability as measured here can be misleading. Prices are higher than in 1995, even when compared to wages. So homes are less affordable for cash buyers. But if you’re paying using other people’s money, and don’t plan to repay it any time soon, then lower interest rates makes a purchase more affordable.
ParticipantSo kelly, the story is that people in the business see lots being done, but everyone involved doesn’t talk about it. So whatever mod activity we hear about is much less than is actually happening. I’d call this the Loan Mod Iceberg story.
ParticipantSo kelly, the story is that people in the business see lots being done, but everyone involved doesn’t talk about it. So whatever mod activity we hear about is much less than is actually happening. I’d call this the Loan Mod Iceberg story.
ParticipantSo kelly, the story is that people in the business see lots being done, but everyone involved doesn’t talk about it. So whatever mod activity we hear about is much less than is actually happening. I’d call this the Loan Mod Iceberg story.
ParticipantSo kelly, the story is that people in the business see lots being done, but everyone involved doesn’t talk about it. So whatever mod activity we hear about is much less than is actually happening. I’d call this the Loan Mod Iceberg story.
ParticipantSo kelly, the story is that people in the business see lots being done, but everyone involved doesn’t talk about it. So whatever mod activity we hear about is much less than is actually happening. I’d call this the Loan Mod Iceberg story.
July 6, 2009 at 5:09 PM in reply to: 1500 sq-ft house in MM just sold for $500k, did I miss the memo? #426009Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy][quote=CA renter][quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Maybe it’s because there is so little inventory on the market right now,
Sometimes I think the banks are just waiting for a few more organic listings to come on the MLS so they are gauge what the real market is.
Hint, it’s not the price these foreclosures are going for.[/quote]
How do you figure foreclosures are not the market????[/quote]
Who are you going to buy the homes from once the mass foreclosures run out (and mass numbers of foreclosures will run out at some point in SD).
Also I would argue that in places that have been really hard hit, by the time builders pay all the fee’s etc.., you would have to sell at a significant premium to what these foreclosures have been selling for just to break even , unless you start building condo’s and duplex’s etc…[/quote]
Nor-LA-SD-guy, housing markets are cyclical. There are always things pulling prices up, and other things pulling prices down. When the things pulling prices up are in the ascendancy, we get upswings. When things that pull prices down are in the ascendancy, we get downswings.
Are you saying that:
a. the housing market is not cyclical?
or
b. foreclosures are not a normal part of downswings?July 6, 2009 at 5:09 PM in reply to: 1500 sq-ft house in MM just sold for $500k, did I miss the memo? #426237Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy][quote=CA renter][quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Maybe it’s because there is so little inventory on the market right now,
Sometimes I think the banks are just waiting for a few more organic listings to come on the MLS so they are gauge what the real market is.
Hint, it’s not the price these foreclosures are going for.[/quote]
How do you figure foreclosures are not the market????[/quote]
Who are you going to buy the homes from once the mass foreclosures run out (and mass numbers of foreclosures will run out at some point in SD).
Also I would argue that in places that have been really hard hit, by the time builders pay all the fee’s etc.., you would have to sell at a significant premium to what these foreclosures have been selling for just to break even , unless you start building condo’s and duplex’s etc…[/quote]
Nor-LA-SD-guy, housing markets are cyclical. There are always things pulling prices up, and other things pulling prices down. When the things pulling prices up are in the ascendancy, we get upswings. When things that pull prices down are in the ascendancy, we get downswings.
Are you saying that:
a. the housing market is not cyclical?
or
b. foreclosures are not a normal part of downswings?July 6, 2009 at 5:09 PM in reply to: 1500 sq-ft house in MM just sold for $500k, did I miss the memo? #426525Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy][quote=CA renter][quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Maybe it’s because there is so little inventory on the market right now,
Sometimes I think the banks are just waiting for a few more organic listings to come on the MLS so they are gauge what the real market is.
Hint, it’s not the price these foreclosures are going for.[/quote]
How do you figure foreclosures are not the market????[/quote]
Who are you going to buy the homes from once the mass foreclosures run out (and mass numbers of foreclosures will run out at some point in SD).
Also I would argue that in places that have been really hard hit, by the time builders pay all the fee’s etc.., you would have to sell at a significant premium to what these foreclosures have been selling for just to break even , unless you start building condo’s and duplex’s etc…[/quote]
Nor-LA-SD-guy, housing markets are cyclical. There are always things pulling prices up, and other things pulling prices down. When the things pulling prices up are in the ascendancy, we get upswings. When things that pull prices down are in the ascendancy, we get downswings.
Are you saying that:
a. the housing market is not cyclical?
or
b. foreclosures are not a normal part of downswings?July 6, 2009 at 5:09 PM in reply to: 1500 sq-ft house in MM just sold for $500k, did I miss the memo? #426595Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy][quote=CA renter][quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Maybe it’s because there is so little inventory on the market right now,
Sometimes I think the banks are just waiting for a few more organic listings to come on the MLS so they are gauge what the real market is.
Hint, it’s not the price these foreclosures are going for.[/quote]
How do you figure foreclosures are not the market????[/quote]
Who are you going to buy the homes from once the mass foreclosures run out (and mass numbers of foreclosures will run out at some point in SD).
Also I would argue that in places that have been really hard hit, by the time builders pay all the fee’s etc.., you would have to sell at a significant premium to what these foreclosures have been selling for just to break even , unless you start building condo’s and duplex’s etc…[/quote]
Nor-LA-SD-guy, housing markets are cyclical. There are always things pulling prices up, and other things pulling prices down. When the things pulling prices up are in the ascendancy, we get upswings. When things that pull prices down are in the ascendancy, we get downswings.
Are you saying that:
a. the housing market is not cyclical?
or
b. foreclosures are not a normal part of downswings?July 6, 2009 at 5:09 PM in reply to: 1500 sq-ft house in MM just sold for $500k, did I miss the memo? #426758Participant[quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy][quote=CA renter][quote=Nor-LA-SD-guy]Maybe it’s because there is so little inventory on the market right now,
Sometimes I think the banks are just waiting for a few more organic listings to come on the MLS so they are gauge what the real market is.
Hint, it’s not the price these foreclosures are going for.[/quote]
How do you figure foreclosures are not the market????[/quote]
Who are you going to buy the homes from once the mass foreclosures run out (and mass numbers of foreclosures will run out at some point in SD).
Also I would argue that in places that have been really hard hit, by the time builders pay all the fee’s etc.., you would have to sell at a significant premium to what these foreclosures have been selling for just to break even , unless you start building condo’s and duplex’s etc…[/quote]
Nor-LA-SD-guy, housing markets are cyclical. There are always things pulling prices up, and other things pulling prices down. When the things pulling prices up are in the ascendancy, we get upswings. When things that pull prices down are in the ascendancy, we get downswings.
Are you saying that:
a. the housing market is not cyclical?
or
b. foreclosures are not a normal part of downswings?July 6, 2009 at 4:59 PM in reply to: OT: “Bank of America sets cutoff for redeeming California IOUs” #426590Participant[quote=Allan from Fallbrook]PR: Like I said, I’d be open to discussing it. I don’t consider myself an expert by any stretch of the imagination and, for the most part, my investment strategy over the years has been pretty staid and boring.
However, that said, I do think there are some unique opportunities out there. As with anything else promising significant upside, there is also significant downside and that’s where really good due diligence comes into play. My worry has been not having the time to focus on this properly and that amplifies the risk in my opinion.[/quote]
I don’t think we expect you to work miracles, Allan. I, and most of us, are pretty good at accepting that risk = maybe gain, maybe loss. If everyone contributed only what I did to the fund, the gains, if any, would be enough to cover a few beers, and any losses would just trigger a few more beers. To make it really worthwhile, and cover overhead, it would probably have to be $5-50 mill. I doubt we can swing that.
So for this idea, we Piggs are just either beer money and an excuse to learn (like flu), or we’re seed money for your 30-year plan to put Vanguard out of business. Cheers!
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