[oxfordrick]

thanks for responding.

I’m learning as I go here but let’s see:

1) In 2006 the City of Poway issued bonds described in detail below.
2) The money was spent on building schools, roads etc.
3) The master developer Black Mountain Ranch llc
is on the hook to pay the fees until they sell the land to merchant builders who build and sell the homes.
4) District 14 is equi-distant between 5 and 15 and two miles north of 56 known as
Black Mountain Ranch/Del Sur.
5) As of 8/31/08 95% of grading and 85% of backbone improvements were complete.
6) Of 1148 lots, 430 homes are completed and 407 have closed escrow.
7) Black Mountain Ranch llc claims the project will be entirly built out by the end of 2009.

MY INITIAL ANALYSIS

1) This is a nice part of town that will get built out sooner rather than later.
2) It’s more critical that the homes get built,
doesn’t matter if the houses go to foreclosure
’cause the Mello Roos deficiency must be made good because it is senior to trust deeds.
3) My biggest risk is serious delay of buildout.
Builders and probably homeowners are on the hook but they may BK.

Here’s some stuff:

POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14

(DEL SUR)

IMPROVEMENT AREA A

SPECIAL TAX

THESE BONDS ARE FROM A $51.495 MILLION ISSUE THAT CAME TO MARKET IN JUNE 2006.

THE POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT PROVIDES EDUCATION TO APPROXIMATELY

32,670 STUDENTS IN A 99-SQUARE MILE AREA OF CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE

DISTRICT OPERATES 23 ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, SIX MIDDLE SCHOOLS, FIVE HIGH

SCHOOLS, AND AN ADULT SCHOOL. ITS SERVICE AREA INCLUDES THE CITY OF POWAY,

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO, AND VARIOUS UNINCORPORATED

COMMUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF POWAY: BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, CARMEL

MOUNTAIN RANCH, RANCHO BERNARDO, RANCHO PENASQUITOS, SABRE SPRINGS,

SANTA LUZ, SANTA FE VALLEY, TORREY HIGHLANDS 4S RANCH, AND DEL SUR.

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14 AND IMPROVEMENT AREA A ARE ONE AND THE

SAME PROPERTY. THE PROPERTY IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN AN

AREA KNOWN AS BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH AND IS PART OF A NEW COMMUNITY BEING

DEVELOPED AS DEL SUR. SPECIFICALLY, THE DISTRICT PROPERTY IS ABOUT

EQUIDISTANT BETWEEN I-5 AND I-15, AND A COUPLE OF MILES NORTH OF HWY 56, WHICH

CONNECTS THE TWO INTERSTATES.

THE DEL SUR COMMUNITY OVERALL IS PLANNED FOR 2,581 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED

AND ATTACHED HOMES, AND 469 AFFORDABLE APARTMENTS AND HOMES.

IMPROVEMENT AREA A CONSISTS OF 143 TAXABLE ACRES PLANNED FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF 1,148 HOMES IN 13 NEIGHBORHOODS. TWO NEIGHBORHOODS WILL

HAVE 205 ATTACHED HOMES (80 DUPLEXES IN ONE DEVELOPMENT AND 125 CONDOS IN

THE OTHER) AND ELEVEN NEIGHBORHOODS WILL HAVE A TOTAL OF 943 HIGH-PRICED

SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOUSES. THE PROPERTY WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFORDABLE

HOUSING, BUT WILL INCLUDE A 10-ACRE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND A 5-ACRE

COMMUNITY PARK. THE PROPERTY REPRESENTS A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF THE

PROJECT, AND WILL BE THE FIRST PORTION TO BE DEVELOPED.

AS OF JANUARY 2008, 399 HOMES HAD BEEN COMPLETED. 344 HOMES HAD BEEN SOLD

WITH ESCROWS CLOSED. THE DEL SUR MASTER DEVELOPER IS BLACK MOUNTAIN

RANCH, A CALIFORNIA LLC. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH ANTICIPATES SELLING IN EXCESS

OF 80% OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN THE DISTRICT TO MERCHANT BUILDERS BY THE END

OF THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2010. MERCHANT BUILDERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE IN THE

DISTRICT INCLUDE STANDARD PACIFIC, WILLIAM LYON HOMES, DAVIDSON

COMMUNITIES, SHEA HOMES AND LAING LUXURY.

THE PROCEEDS OF THIS ISSUE WERE USED TO FUND SCHOOL FACILITIES FOR POWAY USD

AND TO FUND PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY OF POWAY AND CAL TRANS, WHICH

MAY INCLUDE ROAD AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS FOR BOTH PUBLIC

AGENCIES, ALONG WITH PARKS, LIBRARIES, FIRE STATIONS, AND WATER AND SEWER

IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY.

THE BONDS ARE SECURED BY THE SPECIAL TAX LEVIED ON CFD 14 AND AREA A

SEPARATELY, WHICH ARE NOT CROSS-COLLATERALIZED. IN OTHER WORDS, THE CFD 14

SPECIAL TAX CANNOT BE RAISED TO MAKE UP FOR AN AREA A SPECIAL TAX

COLLECTION SHORTFALL, AND VICE VERSA. ADDITIONAL SECURITY WILL BE PROVIDED

THROUGH LETTERS OF CREDIT POSTED BY EACH BUILDER ATTIBUTABLE TO AREA A

PROPERTY ONLY, UNTIL INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS OWN 60% OR MORE OF THE LOTS IN

EACH DEVELOPER’S PORTION OF AREA A.

THE MARKET VALUE OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN CFD 14/AREA A, AS OF APRIL 1, 2006, WAS

APPRAISED AT $330.5 MILLION. THE APPRAISED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO WAS

APPROXIMATELY 3.23 TO 1. WE DO NOT HAVE AN UPDATED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO THAT

TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COMPLETED AND SOLD HOMES.

SOURCE: UNDERWRITER’S NEW ISSUE CREDIT REPORT, DATED 6-1-06

SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, DATED 4-1-08

THE SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT AS OF 8-31-08 DISCLOSED THAT THE PROPERTY OWNER,

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, HAS SOLD LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS OR ENTERED

INTO CONTRACTS FOR THE SALE OF LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS FOR 746 OF THE

APPROXIMATELY 1,148 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTEACHED DWELLING

UNITS WITHIN THE DISTRICT. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH HAS ALSO COMPLETED

APPROXIMATELY 95% OF THE GRADING AND APPROXIMATELY 85% OF THE

BACKBONE PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS.

OUT OF THE 1,148 TOTAL PLANNED HOMES IN THE DEVELOPMENT, THERE WERE 430

HOMES COMPLETED AND 407 OF THEM HAD SOLD AND CLOSED ECROW TO

INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS. BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED AT AUGUST 31, 2008 TOTAL

689.

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH LLC ESTIMATES THAT ABSORPTION AND FULL BUILDOUT

OF NEW HOMES IN THE DISTRICT IS TO CONCLUDE IN 2009.

URBAN ANALYTIC RESEARCH PUTS THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR THE IMPROVEMENT

AREA AT $307.38 MILLION IN 2008/09, A 34.11% INCREASE FROM LAST FISCAL YEAR,

ACCORDING TO COUNTY RECORDS. SAN DIEGO TAX COLLECTOR RECORDS SHOW

949 PARCELS ARE DEVELOPED AND SECURE THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR 2008/09.

BASED ON BONDED DEBT OUTSTANDING, THE ASSESSED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO IS 5.96

TO 1.

[oxfordrick]

thanks for responding.

I’m learning as I go here but let’s see:

1) In 2006 the City of Poway issued bonds described in detail below.
2) The money was spent on building schools, roads etc.
3) The master developer Black Mountain Ranch llc
is on the hook to pay the fees until they sell the land to merchant builders who build and sell the homes.
4) District 14 is equi-distant between 5 and 15 and two miles north of 56 known as
Black Mountain Ranch/Del Sur.
5) As of 8/31/08 95% of grading and 85% of backbone improvements were complete.
6) Of 1148 lots, 430 homes are completed and 407 have closed escrow.
7) Black Mountain Ranch llc claims the project will be entirly built out by the end of 2009.

MY INITIAL ANALYSIS

1) This is a nice part of town that will get built out sooner rather than later.
2) It’s more critical that the homes get built,
doesn’t matter if the houses go to foreclosure
’cause the Mello Roos deficiency must be made good because it is senior to trust deeds.
3) My biggest risk is serious delay of buildout.
Builders and probably homeowners are on the hook but they may BK.

Here’s some stuff:

POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14

(DEL SUR)

IMPROVEMENT AREA A

SPECIAL TAX

THESE BONDS ARE FROM A $51.495 MILLION ISSUE THAT CAME TO MARKET IN JUNE 2006.

THE POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT PROVIDES EDUCATION TO APPROXIMATELY

32,670 STUDENTS IN A 99-SQUARE MILE AREA OF CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE

DISTRICT OPERATES 23 ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, SIX MIDDLE SCHOOLS, FIVE HIGH

SCHOOLS, AND AN ADULT SCHOOL. ITS SERVICE AREA INCLUDES THE CITY OF POWAY,

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO, AND VARIOUS UNINCORPORATED

COMMUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF POWAY: BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, CARMEL

MOUNTAIN RANCH, RANCHO BERNARDO, RANCHO PENASQUITOS, SABRE SPRINGS,

SANTA LUZ, SANTA FE VALLEY, TORREY HIGHLANDS 4S RANCH, AND DEL SUR.

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14 AND IMPROVEMENT AREA A ARE ONE AND THE

SAME PROPERTY. THE PROPERTY IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN AN

AREA KNOWN AS BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH AND IS PART OF A NEW COMMUNITY BEING

DEVELOPED AS DEL SUR. SPECIFICALLY, THE DISTRICT PROPERTY IS ABOUT

EQUIDISTANT BETWEEN I-5 AND I-15, AND A COUPLE OF MILES NORTH OF HWY 56, WHICH

CONNECTS THE TWO INTERSTATES.

THE DEL SUR COMMUNITY OVERALL IS PLANNED FOR 2,581 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED

AND ATTACHED HOMES, AND 469 AFFORDABLE APARTMENTS AND HOMES.

IMPROVEMENT AREA A CONSISTS OF 143 TAXABLE ACRES PLANNED FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF 1,148 HOMES IN 13 NEIGHBORHOODS. TWO NEIGHBORHOODS WILL

HAVE 205 ATTACHED HOMES (80 DUPLEXES IN ONE DEVELOPMENT AND 125 CONDOS IN

THE OTHER) AND ELEVEN NEIGHBORHOODS WILL HAVE A TOTAL OF 943 HIGH-PRICED

SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOUSES. THE PROPERTY WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFORDABLE

HOUSING, BUT WILL INCLUDE A 10-ACRE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND A 5-ACRE

COMMUNITY PARK. THE PROPERTY REPRESENTS A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF THE

PROJECT, AND WILL BE THE FIRST PORTION TO BE DEVELOPED.

AS OF JANUARY 2008, 399 HOMES HAD BEEN COMPLETED. 344 HOMES HAD BEEN SOLD

WITH ESCROWS CLOSED. THE DEL SUR MASTER DEVELOPER IS BLACK MOUNTAIN

RANCH, A CALIFORNIA LLC. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH ANTICIPATES SELLING IN EXCESS

OF 80% OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN THE DISTRICT TO MERCHANT BUILDERS BY THE END

OF THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2010. MERCHANT BUILDERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE IN THE

DISTRICT INCLUDE STANDARD PACIFIC, WILLIAM LYON HOMES, DAVIDSON

COMMUNITIES, SHEA HOMES AND LAING LUXURY.

THE PROCEEDS OF THIS ISSUE WERE USED TO FUND SCHOOL FACILITIES FOR POWAY USD

AND TO FUND PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY OF POWAY AND CAL TRANS, WHICH

MAY INCLUDE ROAD AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS FOR BOTH PUBLIC

AGENCIES, ALONG WITH PARKS, LIBRARIES, FIRE STATIONS, AND WATER AND SEWER

IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY.

THE BONDS ARE SECURED BY THE SPECIAL TAX LEVIED ON CFD 14 AND AREA A

SEPARATELY, WHICH ARE NOT CROSS-COLLATERALIZED. IN OTHER WORDS, THE CFD 14

SPECIAL TAX CANNOT BE RAISED TO MAKE UP FOR AN AREA A SPECIAL TAX

COLLECTION SHORTFALL, AND VICE VERSA. ADDITIONAL SECURITY WILL BE PROVIDED

THROUGH LETTERS OF CREDIT POSTED BY EACH BUILDER ATTIBUTABLE TO AREA A

PROPERTY ONLY, UNTIL INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS OWN 60% OR MORE OF THE LOTS IN

EACH DEVELOPER’S PORTION OF AREA A.

THE MARKET VALUE OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN CFD 14/AREA A, AS OF APRIL 1, 2006, WAS

APPRAISED AT $330.5 MILLION. THE APPRAISED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO WAS

APPROXIMATELY 3.23 TO 1. WE DO NOT HAVE AN UPDATED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO THAT

TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COMPLETED AND SOLD HOMES.

SOURCE: UNDERWRITER’S NEW ISSUE CREDIT REPORT, DATED 6-1-06

SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, DATED 4-1-08

THE SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT AS OF 8-31-08 DISCLOSED THAT THE PROPERTY OWNER,

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, HAS SOLD LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS OR ENTERED

INTO CONTRACTS FOR THE SALE OF LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS FOR 746 OF THE

APPROXIMATELY 1,148 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTEACHED DWELLING

UNITS WITHIN THE DISTRICT. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH HAS ALSO COMPLETED

APPROXIMATELY 95% OF THE GRADING AND APPROXIMATELY 85% OF THE

BACKBONE PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS.

OUT OF THE 1,148 TOTAL PLANNED HOMES IN THE DEVELOPMENT, THERE WERE 430

HOMES COMPLETED AND 407 OF THEM HAD SOLD AND CLOSED ECROW TO

INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS. BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED AT AUGUST 31, 2008 TOTAL

689.

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH LLC ESTIMATES THAT ABSORPTION AND FULL BUILDOUT

OF NEW HOMES IN THE DISTRICT IS TO CONCLUDE IN 2009.

URBAN ANALYTIC RESEARCH PUTS THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR THE IMPROVEMENT

AREA AT $307.38 MILLION IN 2008/09, A 34.11% INCREASE FROM LAST FISCAL YEAR,

ACCORDING TO COUNTY RECORDS. SAN DIEGO TAX COLLECTOR RECORDS SHOW

949 PARCELS ARE DEVELOPED AND SECURE THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR 2008/09.

BASED ON BONDED DEBT OUTSTANDING, THE ASSESSED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO IS 5.96

TO 1.

[oxfordrick]

thanks for responding.

I’m learning as I go here but let’s see:

1) In 2006 the City of Poway issued bonds described in detail below.
2) The money was spent on building schools, roads etc.
3) The master developer Black Mountain Ranch llc
is on the hook to pay the fees until they sell the land to merchant builders who build and sell the homes.
4) District 14 is equi-distant between 5 and 15 and two miles north of 56 known as
Black Mountain Ranch/Del Sur.
5) As of 8/31/08 95% of grading and 85% of backbone improvements were complete.
6) Of 1148 lots, 430 homes are completed and 407 have closed escrow.
7) Black Mountain Ranch llc claims the project will be entirly built out by the end of 2009.

MY INITIAL ANALYSIS

1) This is a nice part of town that will get built out sooner rather than later.
2) It’s more critical that the homes get built,
doesn’t matter if the houses go to foreclosure
’cause the Mello Roos deficiency must be made good because it is senior to trust deeds.
3) My biggest risk is serious delay of buildout.
Builders and probably homeowners are on the hook but they may BK.

Here’s some stuff:

POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14

(DEL SUR)

IMPROVEMENT AREA A

SPECIAL TAX

THESE BONDS ARE FROM A $51.495 MILLION ISSUE THAT CAME TO MARKET IN JUNE 2006.

THE POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT PROVIDES EDUCATION TO APPROXIMATELY

32,670 STUDENTS IN A 99-SQUARE MILE AREA OF CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE

DISTRICT OPERATES 23 ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, SIX MIDDLE SCHOOLS, FIVE HIGH

SCHOOLS, AND AN ADULT SCHOOL. ITS SERVICE AREA INCLUDES THE CITY OF POWAY,

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO, AND VARIOUS UNINCORPORATED

COMMUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF POWAY: BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, CARMEL

MOUNTAIN RANCH, RANCHO BERNARDO, RANCHO PENASQUITOS, SABRE SPRINGS,

SANTA LUZ, SANTA FE VALLEY, TORREY HIGHLANDS 4S RANCH, AND DEL SUR.

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14 AND IMPROVEMENT AREA A ARE ONE AND THE

SAME PROPERTY. THE PROPERTY IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN AN

AREA KNOWN AS BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH AND IS PART OF A NEW COMMUNITY BEING

DEVELOPED AS DEL SUR. SPECIFICALLY, THE DISTRICT PROPERTY IS ABOUT

EQUIDISTANT BETWEEN I-5 AND I-15, AND A COUPLE OF MILES NORTH OF HWY 56, WHICH

CONNECTS THE TWO INTERSTATES.

THE DEL SUR COMMUNITY OVERALL IS PLANNED FOR 2,581 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED

AND ATTACHED HOMES, AND 469 AFFORDABLE APARTMENTS AND HOMES.

IMPROVEMENT AREA A CONSISTS OF 143 TAXABLE ACRES PLANNED FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF 1,148 HOMES IN 13 NEIGHBORHOODS. TWO NEIGHBORHOODS WILL

HAVE 205 ATTACHED HOMES (80 DUPLEXES IN ONE DEVELOPMENT AND 125 CONDOS IN

THE OTHER) AND ELEVEN NEIGHBORHOODS WILL HAVE A TOTAL OF 943 HIGH-PRICED

SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOUSES. THE PROPERTY WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFORDABLE

HOUSING, BUT WILL INCLUDE A 10-ACRE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND A 5-ACRE

COMMUNITY PARK. THE PROPERTY REPRESENTS A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF THE

PROJECT, AND WILL BE THE FIRST PORTION TO BE DEVELOPED.

AS OF JANUARY 2008, 399 HOMES HAD BEEN COMPLETED. 344 HOMES HAD BEEN SOLD

WITH ESCROWS CLOSED. THE DEL SUR MASTER DEVELOPER IS BLACK MOUNTAIN

RANCH, A CALIFORNIA LLC. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH ANTICIPATES SELLING IN EXCESS

OF 80% OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN THE DISTRICT TO MERCHANT BUILDERS BY THE END

OF THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2010. MERCHANT BUILDERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE IN THE

DISTRICT INCLUDE STANDARD PACIFIC, WILLIAM LYON HOMES, DAVIDSON

COMMUNITIES, SHEA HOMES AND LAING LUXURY.

THE PROCEEDS OF THIS ISSUE WERE USED TO FUND SCHOOL FACILITIES FOR POWAY USD

AND TO FUND PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY OF POWAY AND CAL TRANS, WHICH

MAY INCLUDE ROAD AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS FOR BOTH PUBLIC

AGENCIES, ALONG WITH PARKS, LIBRARIES, FIRE STATIONS, AND WATER AND SEWER

IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY.

THE BONDS ARE SECURED BY THE SPECIAL TAX LEVIED ON CFD 14 AND AREA A

SEPARATELY, WHICH ARE NOT CROSS-COLLATERALIZED. IN OTHER WORDS, THE CFD 14

SPECIAL TAX CANNOT BE RAISED TO MAKE UP FOR AN AREA A SPECIAL TAX

COLLECTION SHORTFALL, AND VICE VERSA. ADDITIONAL SECURITY WILL BE PROVIDED

THROUGH LETTERS OF CREDIT POSTED BY EACH BUILDER ATTIBUTABLE TO AREA A

PROPERTY ONLY, UNTIL INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS OWN 60% OR MORE OF THE LOTS IN

EACH DEVELOPER’S PORTION OF AREA A.

THE MARKET VALUE OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN CFD 14/AREA A, AS OF APRIL 1, 2006, WAS

APPRAISED AT $330.5 MILLION. THE APPRAISED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO WAS

APPROXIMATELY 3.23 TO 1. WE DO NOT HAVE AN UPDATED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO THAT

TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COMPLETED AND SOLD HOMES.

SOURCE: UNDERWRITER’S NEW ISSUE CREDIT REPORT, DATED 6-1-06

SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, DATED 4-1-08

THE SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT AS OF 8-31-08 DISCLOSED THAT THE PROPERTY OWNER,

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, HAS SOLD LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS OR ENTERED

INTO CONTRACTS FOR THE SALE OF LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS FOR 746 OF THE

APPROXIMATELY 1,148 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTEACHED DWELLING

UNITS WITHIN THE DISTRICT. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH HAS ALSO COMPLETED

APPROXIMATELY 95% OF THE GRADING AND APPROXIMATELY 85% OF THE

BACKBONE PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS.

OUT OF THE 1,148 TOTAL PLANNED HOMES IN THE DEVELOPMENT, THERE WERE 430

HOMES COMPLETED AND 407 OF THEM HAD SOLD AND CLOSED ECROW TO

INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS. BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED AT AUGUST 31, 2008 TOTAL

689.

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH LLC ESTIMATES THAT ABSORPTION AND FULL BUILDOUT

OF NEW HOMES IN THE DISTRICT IS TO CONCLUDE IN 2009.

URBAN ANALYTIC RESEARCH PUTS THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR THE IMPROVEMENT

AREA AT $307.38 MILLION IN 2008/09, A 34.11% INCREASE FROM LAST FISCAL YEAR,

ACCORDING TO COUNTY RECORDS. SAN DIEGO TAX COLLECTOR RECORDS SHOW

949 PARCELS ARE DEVELOPED AND SECURE THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR 2008/09.

BASED ON BONDED DEBT OUTSTANDING, THE ASSESSED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO IS 5.96

TO 1.

[oxfordrick]

thanks for responding.

I’m learning as I go here but let’s see:

1) In 2006 the City of Poway issued bonds described in detail below.
2) The money was spent on building schools, roads etc.
3) The master developer Black Mountain Ranch llc
is on the hook to pay the fees until they sell the land to merchant builders who build and sell the homes.
4) District 14 is equi-distant between 5 and 15 and two miles north of 56 known as
Black Mountain Ranch/Del Sur.
5) As of 8/31/08 95% of grading and 85% of backbone improvements were complete.
6) Of 1148 lots, 430 homes are completed and 407 have closed escrow.
7) Black Mountain Ranch llc claims the project will be entirly built out by the end of 2009.

MY INITIAL ANALYSIS

1) This is a nice part of town that will get built out sooner rather than later.
2) It’s more critical that the homes get built,
doesn’t matter if the houses go to foreclosure
’cause the Mello Roos deficiency must be made good because it is senior to trust deeds.
3) My biggest risk is serious delay of buildout.
Builders and probably homeowners are on the hook but they may BK.

Here’s some stuff:

POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14

(DEL SUR)

IMPROVEMENT AREA A

SPECIAL TAX

THESE BONDS ARE FROM A $51.495 MILLION ISSUE THAT CAME TO MARKET IN JUNE 2006.

THE POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT PROVIDES EDUCATION TO APPROXIMATELY

32,670 STUDENTS IN A 99-SQUARE MILE AREA OF CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE

DISTRICT OPERATES 23 ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, SIX MIDDLE SCHOOLS, FIVE HIGH

SCHOOLS, AND AN ADULT SCHOOL. ITS SERVICE AREA INCLUDES THE CITY OF POWAY,

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO, AND VARIOUS UNINCORPORATED

COMMUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF POWAY: BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, CARMEL

MOUNTAIN RANCH, RANCHO BERNARDO, RANCHO PENASQUITOS, SABRE SPRINGS,

SANTA LUZ, SANTA FE VALLEY, TORREY HIGHLANDS 4S RANCH, AND DEL SUR.

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14 AND IMPROVEMENT AREA A ARE ONE AND THE

SAME PROPERTY. THE PROPERTY IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN AN

AREA KNOWN AS BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH AND IS PART OF A NEW COMMUNITY BEING

DEVELOPED AS DEL SUR. SPECIFICALLY, THE DISTRICT PROPERTY IS ABOUT

EQUIDISTANT BETWEEN I-5 AND I-15, AND A COUPLE OF MILES NORTH OF HWY 56, WHICH

CONNECTS THE TWO INTERSTATES.

THE DEL SUR COMMUNITY OVERALL IS PLANNED FOR 2,581 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED

AND ATTACHED HOMES, AND 469 AFFORDABLE APARTMENTS AND HOMES.

IMPROVEMENT AREA A CONSISTS OF 143 TAXABLE ACRES PLANNED FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF 1,148 HOMES IN 13 NEIGHBORHOODS. TWO NEIGHBORHOODS WILL

HAVE 205 ATTACHED HOMES (80 DUPLEXES IN ONE DEVELOPMENT AND 125 CONDOS IN

THE OTHER) AND ELEVEN NEIGHBORHOODS WILL HAVE A TOTAL OF 943 HIGH-PRICED

SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOUSES. THE PROPERTY WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFORDABLE

HOUSING, BUT WILL INCLUDE A 10-ACRE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND A 5-ACRE

COMMUNITY PARK. THE PROPERTY REPRESENTS A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF THE

PROJECT, AND WILL BE THE FIRST PORTION TO BE DEVELOPED.

AS OF JANUARY 2008, 399 HOMES HAD BEEN COMPLETED. 344 HOMES HAD BEEN SOLD

WITH ESCROWS CLOSED. THE DEL SUR MASTER DEVELOPER IS BLACK MOUNTAIN

RANCH, A CALIFORNIA LLC. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH ANTICIPATES SELLING IN EXCESS

OF 80% OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN THE DISTRICT TO MERCHANT BUILDERS BY THE END

OF THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2010. MERCHANT BUILDERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE IN THE

DISTRICT INCLUDE STANDARD PACIFIC, WILLIAM LYON HOMES, DAVIDSON

COMMUNITIES, SHEA HOMES AND LAING LUXURY.

THE PROCEEDS OF THIS ISSUE WERE USED TO FUND SCHOOL FACILITIES FOR POWAY USD

AND TO FUND PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY OF POWAY AND CAL TRANS, WHICH

MAY INCLUDE ROAD AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS FOR BOTH PUBLIC

AGENCIES, ALONG WITH PARKS, LIBRARIES, FIRE STATIONS, AND WATER AND SEWER

IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY.

THE BONDS ARE SECURED BY THE SPECIAL TAX LEVIED ON CFD 14 AND AREA A

SEPARATELY, WHICH ARE NOT CROSS-COLLATERALIZED. IN OTHER WORDS, THE CFD 14

SPECIAL TAX CANNOT BE RAISED TO MAKE UP FOR AN AREA A SPECIAL TAX

COLLECTION SHORTFALL, AND VICE VERSA. ADDITIONAL SECURITY WILL BE PROVIDED

THROUGH LETTERS OF CREDIT POSTED BY EACH BUILDER ATTIBUTABLE TO AREA A

PROPERTY ONLY, UNTIL INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS OWN 60% OR MORE OF THE LOTS IN

EACH DEVELOPER’S PORTION OF AREA A.

THE MARKET VALUE OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN CFD 14/AREA A, AS OF APRIL 1, 2006, WAS

APPRAISED AT $330.5 MILLION. THE APPRAISED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO WAS

APPROXIMATELY 3.23 TO 1. WE DO NOT HAVE AN UPDATED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO THAT

TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COMPLETED AND SOLD HOMES.

SOURCE: UNDERWRITER’S NEW ISSUE CREDIT REPORT, DATED 6-1-06

SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, DATED 4-1-08

THE SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT AS OF 8-31-08 DISCLOSED THAT THE PROPERTY OWNER,

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, HAS SOLD LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS OR ENTERED

INTO CONTRACTS FOR THE SALE OF LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS FOR 746 OF THE

APPROXIMATELY 1,148 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTEACHED DWELLING

UNITS WITHIN THE DISTRICT. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH HAS ALSO COMPLETED

APPROXIMATELY 95% OF THE GRADING AND APPROXIMATELY 85% OF THE

BACKBONE PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS.

OUT OF THE 1,148 TOTAL PLANNED HOMES IN THE DEVELOPMENT, THERE WERE 430

HOMES COMPLETED AND 407 OF THEM HAD SOLD AND CLOSED ECROW TO

INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS. BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED AT AUGUST 31, 2008 TOTAL

689.

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH LLC ESTIMATES THAT ABSORPTION AND FULL BUILDOUT

OF NEW HOMES IN THE DISTRICT IS TO CONCLUDE IN 2009.

URBAN ANALYTIC RESEARCH PUTS THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR THE IMPROVEMENT

AREA AT $307.38 MILLION IN 2008/09, A 34.11% INCREASE FROM LAST FISCAL YEAR,

ACCORDING TO COUNTY RECORDS. SAN DIEGO TAX COLLECTOR RECORDS SHOW

949 PARCELS ARE DEVELOPED AND SECURE THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR 2008/09.

BASED ON BONDED DEBT OUTSTANDING, THE ASSESSED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO IS 5.96

TO 1.

[oxfordrick]

thanks for responding.

I’m learning as I go here but let’s see:

1) In 2006 the City of Poway issued bonds described in detail below.
2) The money was spent on building schools, roads etc.
3) The master developer Black Mountain Ranch llc
is on the hook to pay the fees until they sell the land to merchant builders who build and sell the homes.
4) District 14 is equi-distant between 5 and 15 and two miles north of 56 known as
Black Mountain Ranch/Del Sur.
5) As of 8/31/08 95% of grading and 85% of backbone improvements were complete.
6) Of 1148 lots, 430 homes are completed and 407 have closed escrow.
7) Black Mountain Ranch llc claims the project will be entirly built out by the end of 2009.

MY INITIAL ANALYSIS

1) This is a nice part of town that will get built out sooner rather than later.
2) It’s more critical that the homes get built,
doesn’t matter if the houses go to foreclosure
’cause the Mello Roos deficiency must be made good because it is senior to trust deeds.
3) My biggest risk is serious delay of buildout.
Builders and probably homeowners are on the hook but they may BK.

Here’s some stuff:

POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14

(DEL SUR)

IMPROVEMENT AREA A

SPECIAL TAX

THESE BONDS ARE FROM A $51.495 MILLION ISSUE THAT CAME TO MARKET IN JUNE 2006.

THE POWAY UNIFIED SCHOOL DISTRICT PROVIDES EDUCATION TO APPROXIMATELY

32,670 STUDENTS IN A 99-SQUARE MILE AREA OF CENTRAL SAN DIEGO COUNTY. THE

DISTRICT OPERATES 23 ELEMENTARY SCHOOLS, SIX MIDDLE SCHOOLS, FIVE HIGH

SCHOOLS, AND AN ADULT SCHOOL. ITS SERVICE AREA INCLUDES THE CITY OF POWAY,

NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CITY OF SAN DIEGO, AND VARIOUS UNINCORPORATED

COMMUNITIES IN THE VICINITY OF POWAY: BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, CARMEL

MOUNTAIN RANCH, RANCHO BERNARDO, RANCHO PENASQUITOS, SABRE SPRINGS,

SANTA LUZ, SANTA FE VALLEY, TORREY HIGHLANDS 4S RANCH, AND DEL SUR.

COMMUNITY FACILITIES DISTRICT NO. 14 AND IMPROVEMENT AREA A ARE ONE AND THE

SAME PROPERTY. THE PROPERTY IS LOCATED IN NORTHERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN AN

AREA KNOWN AS BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH AND IS PART OF A NEW COMMUNITY BEING

DEVELOPED AS DEL SUR. SPECIFICALLY, THE DISTRICT PROPERTY IS ABOUT

EQUIDISTANT BETWEEN I-5 AND I-15, AND A COUPLE OF MILES NORTH OF HWY 56, WHICH

CONNECTS THE TWO INTERSTATES.

THE DEL SUR COMMUNITY OVERALL IS PLANNED FOR 2,581 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED

AND ATTACHED HOMES, AND 469 AFFORDABLE APARTMENTS AND HOMES.

IMPROVEMENT AREA A CONSISTS OF 143 TAXABLE ACRES PLANNED FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF 1,148 HOMES IN 13 NEIGHBORHOODS. TWO NEIGHBORHOODS WILL

HAVE 205 ATTACHED HOMES (80 DUPLEXES IN ONE DEVELOPMENT AND 125 CONDOS IN

THE OTHER) AND ELEVEN NEIGHBORHOODS WILL HAVE A TOTAL OF 943 HIGH-PRICED

SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED HOUSES. THE PROPERTY WILL NOT HAVE ANY AFFORDABLE

HOUSING, BUT WILL INCLUDE A 10-ACRE ELEMENTARY SCHOOL AND A 5-ACRE

COMMUNITY PARK. THE PROPERTY REPRESENTS A LITTLE LESS THAN HALF OF THE

PROJECT, AND WILL BE THE FIRST PORTION TO BE DEVELOPED.

AS OF JANUARY 2008, 399 HOMES HAD BEEN COMPLETED. 344 HOMES HAD BEEN SOLD

WITH ESCROWS CLOSED. THE DEL SUR MASTER DEVELOPER IS BLACK MOUNTAIN

RANCH, A CALIFORNIA LLC. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH ANTICIPATES SELLING IN EXCESS

OF 80% OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN THE DISTRICT TO MERCHANT BUILDERS BY THE END

OF THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2010. MERCHANT BUILDERS CURRENTLY ACTIVE IN THE

DISTRICT INCLUDE STANDARD PACIFIC, WILLIAM LYON HOMES, DAVIDSON

COMMUNITIES, SHEA HOMES AND LAING LUXURY.

THE PROCEEDS OF THIS ISSUE WERE USED TO FUND SCHOOL FACILITIES FOR POWAY USD

AND TO FUND PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY OF POWAY AND CAL TRANS, WHICH

MAY INCLUDE ROAD AND TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENTS FOR BOTH PUBLIC

AGENCIES, ALONG WITH PARKS, LIBRARIES, FIRE STATIONS, AND WATER AND SEWER

IMPROVEMENTS FOR THE CITY.

THE BONDS ARE SECURED BY THE SPECIAL TAX LEVIED ON CFD 14 AND AREA A

SEPARATELY, WHICH ARE NOT CROSS-COLLATERALIZED. IN OTHER WORDS, THE CFD 14

SPECIAL TAX CANNOT BE RAISED TO MAKE UP FOR AN AREA A SPECIAL TAX

COLLECTION SHORTFALL, AND VICE VERSA. ADDITIONAL SECURITY WILL BE PROVIDED

THROUGH LETTERS OF CREDIT POSTED BY EACH BUILDER ATTIBUTABLE TO AREA A

PROPERTY ONLY, UNTIL INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS OWN 60% OR MORE OF THE LOTS IN

EACH DEVELOPER’S PORTION OF AREA A.

THE MARKET VALUE OF THE PROPERTY WITHIN CFD 14/AREA A, AS OF APRIL 1, 2006, WAS

APPRAISED AT $330.5 MILLION. THE APPRAISED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO WAS

APPROXIMATELY 3.23 TO 1. WE DO NOT HAVE AN UPDATED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO THAT

TAKES INTO ACCOUNT THE COMPLETED AND SOLD HOMES.

SOURCE: UNDERWRITER’S NEW ISSUE CREDIT REPORT, DATED 6-1-06

SECONDARY MARKET UPDATE, DATED 4-1-08

THE SEMI-ANNUAL REPORT AS OF 8-31-08 DISCLOSED THAT THE PROPERTY OWNER,

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH, HAS SOLD LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS OR ENTERED

INTO CONTRACTS FOR THE SALE OF LAND TO MERCHANT BUILDERS FOR 746 OF THE

APPROXIMATELY 1,148 SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED AND ATTEACHED DWELLING

UNITS WITHIN THE DISTRICT. BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH HAS ALSO COMPLETED

APPROXIMATELY 95% OF THE GRADING AND APPROXIMATELY 85% OF THE

BACKBONE PUBLIC IMPROVEMENTS.

OUT OF THE 1,148 TOTAL PLANNED HOMES IN THE DEVELOPMENT, THERE WERE 430

HOMES COMPLETED AND 407 OF THEM HAD SOLD AND CLOSED ECROW TO

INDIVIDUAL HOMEOWNERS. BUILDING PERMITS ISSUED AT AUGUST 31, 2008 TOTAL

689.

BLACK MOUNTAIN RANCH LLC ESTIMATES THAT ABSORPTION AND FULL BUILDOUT

OF NEW HOMES IN THE DISTRICT IS TO CONCLUDE IN 2009.

URBAN ANALYTIC RESEARCH PUTS THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR THE IMPROVEMENT

AREA AT $307.38 MILLION IN 2008/09, A 34.11% INCREASE FROM LAST FISCAL YEAR,

ACCORDING TO COUNTY RECORDS. SAN DIEGO TAX COLLECTOR RECORDS SHOW

949 PARCELS ARE DEVELOPED AND SECURE THE ASSESSED VALUE FOR 2008/09.

BASED ON BONDED DEBT OUTSTANDING, THE ASSESSED VALUE TO LIEN RATIO IS 5.96

TO 1.

[oxfordrick]

Trading up the last 3 weeks, last trade reported at
109.75. The worse the news, the higher the demand.

http://www.emma.msrb.org

30 year GOs also bid up about 12% this year, currently yielding 5.25%.

[oxfordrick]

Trading up the last 3 weeks, last trade reported at
109.75. The worse the news, the higher the demand.

http://www.emma.msrb.org

30 year GOs also bid up about 12% this year, currently yielding 5.25%.

[oxfordrick]

Trading up the last 3 weeks, last trade reported at
109.75. The worse the news, the higher the demand.

http://www.emma.msrb.org

30 year GOs also bid up about 12% this year, currently yielding 5.25%.

[oxfordrick]

Trading up the last 3 weeks, last trade reported at
109.75. The worse the news, the higher the demand.

http://www.emma.msrb.org

30 year GOs also bid up about 12% this year, currently yielding 5.25%.

[oxfordrick]

Trading up the last 3 weeks, last trade reported at
109.75. The worse the news, the higher the demand.

http://www.emma.msrb.org

30 year GOs also bid up about 12% this year, currently yielding 5.25%.

[oxfordrick]

Rents are headed down.

Enjoy!

[oxfordrick]

Rents are headed down.

Enjoy!

[oxfordrick]

Rents are headed down.

Enjoy!

[oxfordrick]

Rents are headed down.

Enjoy!

[oxfordrick]

Rents are headed down.

Enjoy!

[Author]

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