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outtamojo
ParticipantIs there a source that keeps track of price reductions? I am seeing some, it seems like…
Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=kev374]
Let me ask YOU – why is the speculative sentiment that prices will keep rising now any different from 2000-2006? At that time people like you were also saying the same exact thing – that prices will keep rising ad infinitum. People like you were proved very wrong in the last bust, why should this time be any different?[/quote]
This wasn’t directed at me, but there is a big difference.
In 2005/2006 the Price to income ratio in San Diego was at an all-time high of about 14. ( C-S price divided by per capita income).
As of 2011 (Last time Rich updated the chart) that ratio was at an all-time low. Today it is maybe 10-15 % above those all time lows, but below historical norms.
The primary lesson that made Piggington was looking at those fundamental indicators :
– House price to rent ratio
– Monthly mortgage payment to rent ratio
– Mortgage payment as percentage of income
– Price to IncomeThese are what really matter. It is dangerous to assume that recent price appreciation is either indicative of future increases or indicative of a speculative bubble without looking at the underlying fundamentals, such as the ratios listed above.[/quote]
FormerSanDiegan gives the best free advice on the ‘net, time and again.
ParticipantIn a world where the rich seem to get richer and the poor more poor, I prefer prime real estate to slum – er, I mean less desireable areas with higher paper cap rates.I hope my kids can someday trade/leverage our portfolio of rentals in middle class areas into trophy coastal properties or a place in Manhattan. I never could win in Monopoly with those cheap properties anyway…
Participant[quote=zk][quote=SD Realtor]I think one of the things about piggs is that some of them overthink the situation. They go beyond the charts and dig up underlying causes for the chart movements, especially on the way down. Then when the charts change, even though some of the underlying causes may have remained in place, some of them did not waiver. Most of them did. Even Rich himself justified his purchase based on what the charts displayed rather then go well beyond those charts. Indeed the vast majority of the old schoolers who used to populate the forum here are long gone as they purchased based on that same data. The only regret I hear from many of them is that they didn’t buy more.
While things are moving fast now, it wasn’t like that. We came out of it in 09 slowly, ramped up, then dipped….. then came out of it slowly again. I don’t believe we have seen a surge in demand, (from the quantity of buyers) just a lack of supply that makes those buyer act in a more frenzied manner. Seems to me this started to happen around summer last year and started to pick up steam over the winter.[/quote]
I’ve been on this site since well before it had a yellow background. And I bought a lot of properties at a good time. So the charts have done well by me. I’m into the charts. I love the charts. But sometimes you have no choice but to go beyond the charts. The charts aren’t telling us why there’s a lack of inventory. Seems to me that’s a pretty important factor. I’m trying to figure out what’s going to happen next, and without a chart to tell me why there’s such a lack of inventory, I don’t see what to do but go beyond the charts and try to make an educated guess.
I’d be interested to hear other theories that might explain the lack of inventory.[/quote]
The new normal? Jim the realtor had an interview
w/ the Davidson homes guy a while backThere was a map showing how all the land for big projects is gone in S.D. County.
Participant[quote=FormerSanDiegan][quote=outtamojo]I never could understand this fascination with underwater owners as potential sellers without at the same time attempting to quantify potential buyers who held back/ or are still holding back buying to avoid bubble prices.Seems like they came out to be somewhat of a wash, no?
[/quote]Agreed, pent-up demand is also very important.
I don;t know if it’s a wash.
My gut tells me that there is probably way more pent-up demand than pent-up inventory.One (albeit somewhat weak and indirect) way to get a read on potential demand is by looking at household formation.[/quote]
I bet Google knows how much relative demand there is.
ParticipantI never could understand this fascination with underwater owners as potential sellers without at the same time attempting to quantify potential buyers who held back/ or are still holding back buying to avoid bubble prices.Seems like they came out to be somewhat of a wash, no?
At this point in time, for those held off buying, the move off the bottom came too quick.
I wonder what the current frenzy will do to the psychology of home buyers/real estate investors. Will they view housing the same way many viewed stocks in the 90’s, buy the dips because prices ALWAYS come back?Participant[quote=Jazzman]
Lest you have forgotten the recent past, many have earned the right to be picky. I’m reading the reaction of other posters here, and the popular sentiment is not exactly upbeat. As a Realtor you ignore that at your peril[/quote]
I’d like to point out that the Piggington of today is not the same Piggington of 3,6, or 9 months ago – many post rarely some not at all, so
your sentiment barometer is not quite right.ParticipantNot sure how the banks are reacting NOW, but he might try that multiple-month-no-mortgage-payment -pursue-loan-mod trick that others have performed successfully. Hopefully, they can stall long enough to get back on their feet.
And please, no moral mumbo jumbo from the peanut gallery- I’ve seen too much bullshit to single out and pass judgement on anyone these days.January 30, 2013 at 1:14 PM in reply to: The price of SD real estate in some parts just went up again…. #758697ParticipantMay the halo encompass us all…
Participant[quote=AN][quote=flu][quote=The-Shoveler][quote=flu][quote=CA renter]C’mon, flu. Share your thoughts. :)[/quote]
I’m throwing down the white flag here. RE prices are going higher. I can’t float with good cash flow at this point. Sucks that I didn’t buy more. Also, equity markets are going to float higher…Sucks to be in cash 40% too instead of previous 90%…
My last option is to buy a new primary..Which I will have to wait. Higher end homes haven’t gone *that* much higher, but at the same time neither has my budget.
No point wasting my time thinking RE prices are going to fall or correct in a meaningful way. Gotta think of other areas/ways to generate income.
Sometimes the biggest hazard to one’s wealth is one’s own pessimism….so I’ve learned.
Missed the boat bigtime…Oh well.[/quote]
Sometimes it can save your Butt too.[/quote]
There’s a huge difference between passing up risk sometimes, and being a perpetual perma-bear….[/quote]
we all were bears in 2005 and it saved out butts, but if you were a RE bear early last year, you’ve missed a huge run up. That’s the difference between perma-bear and a realist.[/quote]I’d say late 2011 was the latest any of of not so well connected folk could buy anything decent at crash prices in North County. From then on out pocket sales ruled the landscape.
ParticipantYa know, Lance woulda made a great CEO in tech land, without having to know anything at all about tech.
ParticipantHave you ever been to Merced? That town is like an armpit…
Participant[quote=TenaciousSD][quote=EconProf]But, as another poster pointed out, there is no proof as to how the bed bugs got here in the first place. That is my ultimate defense if this gets in front of a judge.[/quote]
I’d recommend getting a 3rd party company (like San Diego Pest) for treating bedbugs. I’d also recommend asking the prospective tenant (before they move in) to sign a bedbug addendum saying that they’ve checked the apartment for bedbugs.
If down the road there is a bed bug issue, have the bedbug issue taken care of and bill the resident. If they argue that its your fault/responsibility, you can point to the fact that they themselves signed a document saying there were no bedbugs present when they moved in. The hope is – this is the end of the story.
What happens if you get pulled into court? Lets say the resident sues you for damages to their property. The burden of proof is on them to show that you the introduced the bedbugs – which is very difficult. They could have been on their moving truck, on the used furniture they bought on craigslist, or on something they bought at the flea market. Its very difficult to pin down the source.[/quote]
A piece of paper saying there are no bedbugs would carry more weight imo if it was signed by someone who actually knows how to look for bedbugs. I would get the place certified bedbug free by a pest company rather than Joe tenant.
ParticipantKind of a riskless trade for them. Piggyback gov. support for housing; should housing fall further- more gov. support on the way; if housing goes into sh@t tank gov. bails out BX so they don’t unload all their houses at once.
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