[ocrenter]

agree most folks would want to live by the coast if money is no object.

however, $1 million really would not do.

I would have to downgrade significantly from my current house and attached amenities to try to fit into that $1 million budget along the coast.

Plus then I’ll have to deal with the marine layer that seem to stay until noon at times.

not to say I don’t like the coast, but to stay within the $1 million price restrain, I’ll stay put in the “inland.”

[ocrenter]

agree most folks would want to live by the coast if money is no object.

however, $1 million really would not do.

I would have to downgrade significantly from my current house and attached amenities to try to fit into that $1 million budget along the coast.

Plus then I’ll have to deal with the marine layer that seem to stay until noon at times.

not to say I don’t like the coast, but to stay within the $1 million price restrain, I’ll stay put in the “inland.”

[ocrenter]

the problem here is if there are competing neighborhoods that are in better school districts and with real or perceived desirability, with pricing point very close to Skyranch, Skyranch will not be able to compete.

the price point for close to 4000 sqft sfr in 4S is now low 700s. there are way too many listings to count for homes from 3000 to 4000 sqft, ranging from pedestrian to grand. in Santee there’s a single listing.

as for the above 4000 sqft market, you got Stonebridge with 3 new home builders with some offering homes in the low 800s. yes granted one would have to spend another $200k to dress up the new home, whereas the Santee example you listed is already fully decked out. but I think the Scripps address and the Poway schools will be too overwhelming to fight.

at the end of the day, if someone has the ability to buy a 800k home, they will rather go for 4S or Stonebridge and Santee will not be on their map at all.

I think ultimately the $400-500k market is the Santee niche. and that is not a bad place to be.

[ocrenter]

the problem here is if there are competing neighborhoods that are in better school districts and with real or perceived desirability, with pricing point very close to Skyranch, Skyranch will not be able to compete.

the price point for close to 4000 sqft sfr in 4S is now low 700s. there are way too many listings to count for homes from 3000 to 4000 sqft, ranging from pedestrian to grand. in Santee there’s a single listing.

as for the above 4000 sqft market, you got Stonebridge with 3 new home builders with some offering homes in the low 800s. yes granted one would have to spend another $200k to dress up the new home, whereas the Santee example you listed is already fully decked out. but I think the Scripps address and the Poway schools will be too overwhelming to fight.

at the end of the day, if someone has the ability to buy a 800k home, they will rather go for 4S or Stonebridge and Santee will not be on their map at all.

I think ultimately the $400-500k market is the Santee niche. and that is not a bad place to be.

[ocrenter]

the problem here is if there are competing neighborhoods that are in better school districts and with real or perceived desirability, with pricing point very close to Skyranch, Skyranch will not be able to compete.

the price point for close to 4000 sqft sfr in 4S is now low 700s. there are way too many listings to count for homes from 3000 to 4000 sqft, ranging from pedestrian to grand. in Santee there’s a single listing.

as for the above 4000 sqft market, you got Stonebridge with 3 new home builders with some offering homes in the low 800s. yes granted one would have to spend another $200k to dress up the new home, whereas the Santee example you listed is already fully decked out. but I think the Scripps address and the Poway schools will be too overwhelming to fight.

at the end of the day, if someone has the ability to buy a 800k home, they will rather go for 4S or Stonebridge and Santee will not be on their map at all.

I think ultimately the $400-500k market is the Santee niche. and that is not a bad place to be.

[ocrenter]

the problem here is if there are competing neighborhoods that are in better school districts and with real or perceived desirability, with pricing point very close to Skyranch, Skyranch will not be able to compete.

the price point for close to 4000 sqft sfr in 4S is now low 700s. there are way too many listings to count for homes from 3000 to 4000 sqft, ranging from pedestrian to grand. in Santee there’s a single listing.

as for the above 4000 sqft market, you got Stonebridge with 3 new home builders with some offering homes in the low 800s. yes granted one would have to spend another $200k to dress up the new home, whereas the Santee example you listed is already fully decked out. but I think the Scripps address and the Poway schools will be too overwhelming to fight.

at the end of the day, if someone has the ability to buy a 800k home, they will rather go for 4S or Stonebridge and Santee will not be on their map at all.

I think ultimately the $400-500k market is the Santee niche. and that is not a bad place to be.

[ocrenter]

the problem here is if there are competing neighborhoods that are in better school districts and with real or perceived desirability, with pricing point very close to Skyranch, Skyranch will not be able to compete.

the price point for close to 4000 sqft sfr in 4S is now low 700s. there are way too many listings to count for homes from 3000 to 4000 sqft, ranging from pedestrian to grand. in Santee there’s a single listing.

as for the above 4000 sqft market, you got Stonebridge with 3 new home builders with some offering homes in the low 800s. yes granted one would have to spend another $200k to dress up the new home, whereas the Santee example you listed is already fully decked out. but I think the Scripps address and the Poway schools will be too overwhelming to fight.

at the end of the day, if someone has the ability to buy a 800k home, they will rather go for 4S or Stonebridge and Santee will not be on their map at all.

I think ultimately the $400-500k market is the Santee niche. and that is not a bad place to be.

[ocrenter]

[quote=gandalf]What an excellent thread!

Income figures, plus availability and cost of credit. My guess, I think 1999-2000 baseline is about right.

Lots of ‘noise’ in the system still.

Also, I think it’s not just median incomes, as income and wealth distribution is continuing to skew upwards. (I suspect that’s why we’re still doing alright here in my zip code.)

Appreciate comparing notes. Thanks all.[/quote]

I see the point about the noise. perhaps income % changes by zipcode breakdown would provide a more accurate picture.

question is where do we get that data…

[ocrenter]

[quote=gandalf]What an excellent thread!

Income figures, plus availability and cost of credit. My guess, I think 1999-2000 baseline is about right.

Lots of ‘noise’ in the system still.

Also, I think it’s not just median incomes, as income and wealth distribution is continuing to skew upwards. (I suspect that’s why we’re still doing alright here in my zip code.)

Appreciate comparing notes. Thanks all.[/quote]

I see the point about the noise. perhaps income % changes by zipcode breakdown would provide a more accurate picture.

question is where do we get that data…

[ocrenter]

[quote=gandalf]What an excellent thread!

Income figures, plus availability and cost of credit. My guess, I think 1999-2000 baseline is about right.

Lots of ‘noise’ in the system still.

Also, I think it’s not just median incomes, as income and wealth distribution is continuing to skew upwards. (I suspect that’s why we’re still doing alright here in my zip code.)

Appreciate comparing notes. Thanks all.[/quote]

I see the point about the noise. perhaps income % changes by zipcode breakdown would provide a more accurate picture.

question is where do we get that data…

[ocrenter]

[quote=gandalf]What an excellent thread!

Income figures, plus availability and cost of credit. My guess, I think 1999-2000 baseline is about right.

Lots of ‘noise’ in the system still.

Also, I think it’s not just median incomes, as income and wealth distribution is continuing to skew upwards. (I suspect that’s why we’re still doing alright here in my zip code.)

Appreciate comparing notes. Thanks all.[/quote]

I see the point about the noise. perhaps income % changes by zipcode breakdown would provide a more accurate picture.

question is where do we get that data…

[ocrenter]

[quote=gandalf]What an excellent thread!

Income figures, plus availability and cost of credit. My guess, I think 1999-2000 baseline is about right.

Lots of ‘noise’ in the system still.

Also, I think it’s not just median incomes, as income and wealth distribution is continuing to skew upwards. (I suspect that’s why we’re still doing alright here in my zip code.)

Appreciate comparing notes. Thanks all.[/quote]

I see the point about the noise. perhaps income % changes by zipcode breakdown would provide a more accurate picture.

question is where do we get that data…

[ocrenter]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I think an interest rate based formula would be very interesting, but it would be important that it only get used by long-term buyers. As I opined in that recent article, if you are not a long term buyer you aren’t getting that big a benefit from the low rate, so it’s better to be concerned about prices and ignore rates.

However, for a long term buyer, it’s possible that prices could still be a bit high but rates could be low enough to compensate for that. That’s where your interest rate based formula could come in handy.

So it would be good to have two formulae: one for price-concerned buyers and one for payment-concerned buyers. I’d say the 2000 price plus 50% is probably about right for price. For payments we’d just have to factor in the different in rates between now and then. It’s Friday night and I’m too lazy right now but maybe I will mess around with it at some point.[/quote]

agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I think an interest rate based formula would be very interesting, but it would be important that it only get used by long-term buyers. As I opined in that recent article, if you are not a long term buyer you aren’t getting that big a benefit from the low rate, so it’s better to be concerned about prices and ignore rates.

However, for a long term buyer, it’s possible that prices could still be a bit high but rates could be low enough to compensate for that. That’s where your interest rate based formula could come in handy.

So it would be good to have two formulae: one for price-concerned buyers and one for payment-concerned buyers. I’d say the 2000 price plus 50% is probably about right for price. For payments we’d just have to factor in the different in rates between now and then. It’s Friday night and I’m too lazy right now but maybe I will mess around with it at some point.[/quote]

agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.

[ocrenter]

[quote=Rich Toscano]I think an interest rate based formula would be very interesting, but it would be important that it only get used by long-term buyers. As I opined in that recent article, if you are not a long term buyer you aren’t getting that big a benefit from the low rate, so it’s better to be concerned about prices and ignore rates.

However, for a long term buyer, it’s possible that prices could still be a bit high but rates could be low enough to compensate for that. That’s where your interest rate based formula could come in handy.

So it would be good to have two formulae: one for price-concerned buyers and one for payment-concerned buyers. I’d say the 2000 price plus 50% is probably about right for price. For payments we’d just have to factor in the different in rates between now and then. It’s Friday night and I’m too lazy right now but maybe I will mess around with it at some point.[/quote]

agree two formulae would be the best way to go.

I wonder if some of the piggs that recently purchased would be willing to try out the two formulae in private and let us know how they work out in their real life example.

[Author]

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