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NotCranky
ParticipantWive are a good thing.
I imagine, that in general I am going to let you have the last word on everything.I am sorry if you have heard that before. For me you are very slippery.It will become tiring to try to debate things to a significant level. I am simply not a frivolous person to put it in a favorable light,inspite of the fact that I have a strong irreverent streak and a big mouth.I do not wish to prove that I have insufficient social skills to participate on a blog as generally hospitable as this one is.I have some admiration for you. Lets see how it goes. Would you like to clean this mess up or leave it out here?ParticipantWive are a good thing.
I imagine, that in general I am going to let you have the last word on everything.I am sorry if you have heard that before. For me you are very slippery.It will become tiring to try to debate things to a significant level. I am simply not a frivolous person to put it in a favorable light,inspite of the fact that I have a strong irreverent streak and a big mouth.I do not wish to prove that I have insufficient social skills to participate on a blog as generally hospitable as this one is.I have some admiration for you. Lets see how it goes. Would you like to clean this mess up or leave it out here?ParticipantHi SD,
sdr said
“CV is currently one of if not the strongest market in SD county and if it weakens that would be a bit of a belleweather for the rest of the county.”He wasn’t specifc enough for me in the first post to make the adjustmetns that you made. In fact he simply says “rest of the county”. Then he says in his second post that he will compare the numbers to be “weaker markets” If he he doing as you say comparing to CV to other “detached mid-upper level markets” It would be hard to understand doing that at all because they would presume to behave the same as CV?
I appreciate your adjustments though, most of sdr’s closest peers on the blog are pretty focused on the “detached mid-upper level market”.At least in recent days. I also get the feeling you would not touch me with a 10 foot pole. That’s O.K. if its true.My inlaws are the same way.
The topic of “flight to quality” is extremely relevant too.IMO
I must admit it. It is easy to cloud our discussion with thoughts that are generally more prevalent in our minds. I have already done it on a few posts.
Yes I m modifying my posts. Yes I am a little sensitive now.Best wishes
ParticipantHi SD,
sdr said
“CV is currently one of if not the strongest market in SD county and if it weakens that would be a bit of a belleweather for the rest of the county.”He wasn’t specifc enough for me in the first post to make the adjustmetns that you made. In fact he simply says “rest of the county”. Then he says in his second post that he will compare the numbers to be “weaker markets” If he he doing as you say comparing to CV to other “detached mid-upper level markets” It would be hard to understand doing that at all because they would presume to behave the same as CV?
I appreciate your adjustments though, most of sdr’s closest peers on the blog are pretty focused on the “detached mid-upper level market”.At least in recent days. I also get the feeling you would not touch me with a 10 foot pole. That’s O.K. if its true.My inlaws are the same way.
The topic of “flight to quality” is extremely relevant too.IMO
I must admit it. It is easy to cloud our discussion with thoughts that are generally more prevalent in our minds. I have already done it on a few posts.
Yes I m modifying my posts. Yes I am a little sensitive now.Best wishes
ParticipantIf your neigbor has permits they will have to insulate. They also should be installing dual pane windows.In theory new construction is supposed to be air tight.Solar panels are of course completely optional It is still expensive to get solar going and time to recoup investment+ loss of what that 30k or so could do elsewhere is a barrier.New homes have to have a 92% efficient FAU(force air unit)Mine is so efficent that the flue is ordinary PVC pipe instead of double walled pressed steel.My probelm is with he fact that heating is required at all,in Southern California.It should be optional IMO.I live at 3000 feet and even my wife admits we could easily do with out it. You have to do the real green things as a hobbiest,trend setter, or for moral reasons.Even then,the authorities make it next to impossible.Only people who can afford to abandon urban living or live below the radar of the Gov. can do it. I have several little things that we can do,but that should be a different post. I love the houses you are talking about.Still pretty elite. Real ecology and economy can be enhanced by building small and utilizing space somewhat like the design of a sail boat, as has been more or less eluded to on this thread.Density of individual dwellings is probably good in this regard too.I would bet many of us here don’t wan’t to live that close to each other. We might not get around the fact that conditioning individual large volumes of space and using newly manufactured and harvested components is glutinous compared to the worlds economy and resources.The man hours dedicated to the artistic elements is not efficient for helping any impoverished people left wanting for basic survival needs. Thats why I have problems with the huge artistic “green” dwelling being considered pc and cool and all that.No matter what, building big with driveways and all,in enviormentally sensitive areas,anywhere that hasn’t previouly been paved,wreaks havoc on the ecology. Still I don’t moralize publically against it and I have not done much for the planet, these are just observatons.
ParticipantIf your neigbor has permits they will have to insulate. They also should be installing dual pane windows.In theory new construction is supposed to be air tight.Solar panels are of course completely optional It is still expensive to get solar going and time to recoup investment+ loss of what that 30k or so could do elsewhere is a barrier.New homes have to have a 92% efficient FAU(force air unit)Mine is so efficent that the flue is ordinary PVC pipe instead of double walled pressed steel.My probelm is with he fact that heating is required at all,in Southern California.It should be optional IMO.I live at 3000 feet and even my wife admits we could easily do with out it. You have to do the real green things as a hobbiest,trend setter, or for moral reasons.Even then,the authorities make it next to impossible.Only people who can afford to abandon urban living or live below the radar of the Gov. can do it. I have several little things that we can do,but that should be a different post. I love the houses you are talking about.Still pretty elite. Real ecology and economy can be enhanced by building small and utilizing space somewhat like the design of a sail boat, as has been more or less eluded to on this thread.Density of individual dwellings is probably good in this regard too.I would bet many of us here don’t wan’t to live that close to each other. We might not get around the fact that conditioning individual large volumes of space and using newly manufactured and harvested components is glutinous compared to the worlds economy and resources.The man hours dedicated to the artistic elements is not efficient for helping any impoverished people left wanting for basic survival needs. Thats why I have problems with the huge artistic “green” dwelling being considered pc and cool and all that.No matter what, building big with driveways and all,in enviormentally sensitive areas,anywhere that hasn’t previouly been paved,wreaks havoc on the ecology. Still I don’t moralize publically against it and I have not done much for the planet, these are just observatons.
ParticipantAnxvariety
The properties are in Borrego,Shelter Valley?I think the contamination issues with the tire and mud style construction are mitigated with an interior vapor barrier on all exterior walls. Wire lathe is attached to the walls and they are plastered.
Speeding pullet , My wife and I lived in a second hand travel trailer with a temporary occupancy permit while we built or admittedly conventional house. We(I) keep talking about it as the cure to affordable housing and enviormental issues. I had the idea of digging a huge hole on a knoll pushing the trailer in it, Making accomodation for the earths weight against the weak structure, access, ventilation and natural lighting in various ways. Then it would be covered with visqeen plastic so that water would plane off the knoll. About a foot of soil covers the plastic and the land is revegetated. I donated the trailer to a family in Tecate so it wasn’t a complete waste.With a few exceptions to the rule the county of San Diego by the way does not allow for living in these trailers anywhere under it’s jurisdiction . The ones you see are supposed to be parked only. There is another rule that allows visitors to live a total of 30 days a year in them. Could you all imagine what would happen to the economy if we were all allowed to do these kinds of alternative things.
Participantsdr My acerbic wit is turned off for now. There are many better statisticians here than I am. I think in your claim that Your CV monitor creation will be a “bellweather” for the County contradicts correct ideas that you have already expounded on here. Mostly that real estate is local,very local, even when the trend is almost universal. I don’t agree that you can pick a “bellweather” so recklessly. I fear you doing it when the probable intent is to rub my nose in it for as long as your data shows that it is strong which alse has no relevance to how this tiff got going anyhow. San Carlos has a much better listing pending ratio . It might be bullet proof we just don’t know.(It has shown weakness on and off) Other areas might have terrible ratios ,long DOM but prices are strong.Maybe the populace is rich and stable there? If they ride out the eminent bust the declines will look minmal when we look back on this period of time.We can’t make them sell their houses & land, nor can we make generalizations of the market based on what they do.
ParticipantI think he is stalking ME…he created this link in my honor.
I think I can hang around to help him do it right!
Besides that, I am sure at the meet up My Friend will have my ass kicked all the way to Jamul!Seriously though the logic of his cv monitor being a bellweather doesn’t pass the mustard!But of course he knows that it’s all just very entertaining. I am surprised that the guy who posts more than anyone else just doesn’t have time to do it accurately or simply admit when in fact he is conclusively wrong. And I am not talking about spelling. And you don’t start a sentence with and.Yes I took it personal.
ParticipantThanks for considering me a fellow poster. I was out today sorry you missed me…I got my adrenal glands removed and a frontal lobotomy to boot. I should be much more placid.I don’t know why but I keep saying Real Estate always goes up!It’s a good time to buy or sell!
Quoting you:
“CV is currently one of if not the strongest market in SD county and if it weakens that would be a bit of a belleweather for the rest of the county.”
IF it doesn’t weaken is it also still a Bellweather for the rest of the county? Damn it! the Doc must of missed some grey matter!
!Bellweathers, Rustico dont need no stinking bellweathers!
Wife in Back Ground….Down Rustico, Down! Good boy Rustico!Don’t worry I will remove this when you stop laughing.I don’t want to mess up your bellweathers dedicated to me.
ParticipantI have almost got the approval for a 20 acre “Architectural free Zone” in the Local mountains. Just kidding, the City and County own us when it comes to developement…unless you are a developer then its the other way around. Anyway I am sure the planners know what they are doing.
ParticipantBaseball guy,
For the record I never said he was conducting business and I begrudge no one for doing that. I was speaking about a bias mentality that seems apparent to me. I have learned a lot form him as well. To his credit he takes challenges well, just either a little evasive or lazy to deal with the nitty gritty.Sales and marketing is the devils playground …Lots of slippery slopes too.
ParticipantEco is hard to due if it is very unconventional in San Diego at least with permits. I think James Hubbel’s son does or was doing this with straw bale houses. You could probably find him on a Search engine.
..solar panels, water collection systems, composting systems etc. Any sources for this would be much appreciated too…These are all doable of course good books are on Amazon. The more basic types of things would need to be done in a rural semi-rural area if they are to be done to any large extent.
As far as purchasing land..goes… I have always been told that land (Parcels)holds it’s value better than improvements in a down cycle presumably because it is owned outright usually. The market for parcels has soften up a little in the county and there is some legally parceled acreage for around 200-230K. Hopefull it will get softer any trend in that direction has just started. The legality of the parcel and what type of use and structure are varified in “Zoning” of the appropriate building department. You are very correct in having concerns about infrastructure. A water meter cost 10 to 15k if you have to run the pipes through a public area it is very expensive. Fire hydrant forget it. If the property is in a groundwater area you need to get a very good idea of the reliability of the water in the area. In San Diego you must have a minimum GPM production from the well. It is either 1 or 1.5 I believe.Usually this is not a problem but it is a little stressful not knowing. If you are investigating for yourself ply the people in the health department at building for information on good ans bad areas and use the yellow pages and call all the well drillers in it. Amazingly enough there are not that many terribly unproductive areas in san diego. Some small areas are unbuildable becauwe the water table is too high! Wells cost 5k to 15k and up + water pressure boosting equipment and storage for fire sprinklers which are required now in almost all County of San Diego controlled area.Electric poles are 10K each you pay SDG&E. They had a cost splitting program in effect that allowed one to pay 50% of all cost and SDG&E owned the poles and could charge future owners of adjacent parcels for the same poles & power lines. Sdg&e in my experience doesent bend over backwards to let everyone tie into the grid but it can be done. If the property has a pole near by you take the number of the pole and call sdg&e to make sure its “legal” there are some old one’s in the county and they will not let you use them. They are usually very nice about letting you talk directly to the area planner.
I have to go for now but if you check back in here and are interested in more I will tell you. Maybe someone else can pick up here.I will check back this evening.
Have a good day.Participant4plex,
I am not second guessing what you did but I do think about this topic fequently and I would like to share my point of view. I think the chance that the worst recession in our life times is knocking a the door is good. Will rental income become challenge? It seems that rentals will always carry some relative weight in the economy. I like them if they are not extremely leveraged and especially if they can be covered by other assets. But, I have a low tolerance for risk. If the rental or rental portfolio was leveraged I would dump it.In the case of a depression If one was in good shape with debt ..depending on their other resources and abilty to gain income,which could become pretty sketchy of course, the rentals might be their best source of obtaining necessities and helping friends and family out or both? As far as the migration issue goes maybe California has tidal efect on both the west and the east cost? Tide goes out tide goes in. People want to be back here and people have always wanted to come here for the first time.I think that will give our economy some support.Hopefully businesses will obey the tide theory to some degree.I hope policy makers are bright enough to try to facilitate it too. Maybe you or someone else has ideas? An aside… I have a friend who is way up there in years . He said his dad bought hotels on the California coast during the depression, after it had hit hard of course,He rented them out to nearly busted single men and made a killing. Some people make money at whatever they do he says! -
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