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North County Jim
ParticipantWhy else would Brazil be ahead of us?
Because they have an ideal climate for growing sugar cane. Sugar cane is the cheapest way to produce ethanol.
ParticipantTemecula was a poster child for the last housing bust in the early 90’s. There were neighborhoods around the Temecula Creek Inn with partially completed homes that had boarded windows.
Time magazine had a special issue on the end of the California dream in 1991. There was a story on hellish commutes from outlying areas and the terrible quality of life that went with it. If I recall, Temecula got prominent mention.
As an aside, we viewed the cover as a contrary indicator and bought our first house six months later. A couple of years too early I’m afraid. Our timing on selling was much better.
ParticipantCan you find out the precipitating factors?
I agree with sdr. That’s a data point I could do without knowing.
ParticipantMaybe the time stamp is off?
The time stamp is in standard time.
ParticipantYou obviously know your friend better than I do but I might take her observations with a slight grain of salt.
July 14, 2006 at 4:42 PM in reply to: D.R. Horton slahes earnings forecast by almost one third for the year #28388ParticipantPS,
Do you know which homebuilders Bill Miller has been buying? Some of them have seen serious erosion in their cash positions as a result of stock buybacks and land acquisition.
Centex, for example, has gone from over $500 million in cash on hand to just over $47 million from March 2005 to March 2006. Centex is also the only four-star rated home builder by S&P.
MDC Holdings has seen their cash position cut in half. Standard Pacific went from $151 million to $29 million.
Of course that doesn’t mean all of the homebuilders have frittered away their cash.
Personally, the homebuilders are a battleground I’d rather avoid. With shrinking earnings, those small P/E’s aren’t going to look so small a couple of quarters down the road. There’s probably also going to be some balance sheet writedowns as land prices decrease. On the short side, it looks pretty crowded.
ParticipantThere may be a lot of folks who need HELOCs to pay the rest of their bills.
ParticipantThanks. I feel better now.
ParticipantSo I took a 5% drop. Meanwhile, median was still going up.
I don’t mean to pick on you PS but this illustrates the problem with using one data point to justify a conclusion. Did you necessarily have to take the 5% drop? How long were you on the market?
You were, it seems, an emotional seller who still hasn’t quite resolved whether you accepted the right offer. Could the comparable that you based the $830k number on been attributable to an emotional buyer?
What I’m getting at is the human element introduces a lot of noise into the data. Would two people selling the same house at the same time sell at the same price? Of course not.
ParticipantMost everyone here agrees the median is useless. There’s a lot of support for the idea that the mix of homes sold is skewing the median.
The problem is noone (at least to my knowledge) has yet presented data showing this to be the case. It seems to be all anecdotal.
Shouldn’t there be a relatively easy way of identifying this trend? Overall sales by zip code perhaps?
ParticipantJim had no business listing my personal information.
PS,
Believe me, I didn’t provide the link lightly. However, the very same day you posted information containing the following:
1. You identified the name of the street where you sold.
2. You identified the sales price.
It seems you have since deleted your post with your former street name and my link was changed by someone other than me.
The faux indignation is very sad. You could have easily let me know that you made a mistake posting your former street name and you would appreciate it if I’d edit my post. That would have been easy. Instead, more melodrama with your involvement.
ParticipantMy expectation of a realtor on this forum, is that he will give us market insights such as that provided by Bob.
It seems your implication is that SDR has not provided any market insight. I think you’re wrong but if that’s what you feel, why don’t you state it directly?
ParticipantPS,
Try this.
ParticipantPS,
I have sympathy for those who have been or will be hurt. However, how many are true victims (meaning circumstances clearly beyond their control)? Whether it’s credit cards to pay for groceries or home equity to finance consumption, there are alternatives.
On another thread, I related a story a hair stylist gave me about her family’s expenses. She claimed to have cut $600 in monthly expenses.
If things get as dire as you predict, the hair stylist will not be alone.
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