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September 12, 2006 at 10:01 AM in reply to: Quick Poll: Year of trough & decline from peak to trough #35048
North County Jim
ParticipantAny idea what their holding costs are for taxes, insurance, etc.?
ParticipantIf you’ve (sic) talking about deflection from the real issue and obfuscation, I think the master of spin in (sic) Karl Rove. Talk about a “temporary dip and then back in the positive.” Lereah just had to watch TV everyday to learn the tricks of the trade.
How often is Karl Rove on TV? My impression is that he’s a fairly reclusive figure.
ParticipantThey don’t want to force borrowers into foreclosure, and are working hard to come up with options for defaulting borrowers.
PS,
Are you sure of this? I don’t claim to know what’s going on in the heads of nervous lenders right now but this seems counter-intuitive to me.
If I were a lender with a number of non-performing mortgage loans and I saw a flood of foreclosures coming, I’d certainly consider forcing delinquent borrowers into foreclosure sooner rather than later.
Once the tsunami hits, then I’d consider other options for delinquent borrowers.
ParticipantEven though my home has already gone down 5% I feel so much better knowing that it is just a short correction and that the market will soon go up again. One can sleep better at night knowing that their $800,000 house (bought with a 7-year interest only ARM, no money down) that is now worth $750,000 will someday return to the peak and beyond, albeit at a slow, peaceful rise over time. Like the ripples in the ocean the market glides along smoothly, always sturdy, always heading upward.
A priceless post! Kudos.
ParticipantHow do you know the home is overpriced?
Maybe the realtors can chime in on this but it seems to me that the attendance at the open house tells you all you need to know. If it were priced closer to what the market will bear, wouldn’t more people have attended?
As someone who has looked at a lot of new and resale homes recently, I can tell you traffic has been greater at those that are more competitively priced.
I can also tell you that Escondido does not lack for Open House signs on the weekend.
BTW, I know it’s nitpicking but Escondido consists of zip codes 92025, 26, 27 and 29. 92028 is Fallbrook.
August 22, 2006 at 9:12 AM in reply to: Iraq is like the housing market – but not like you think #32636ParticipantPC,
If I recall, the President did a one-on-one with Russert on Meet the Press for the entire hour.
It’s not uncommon for politicians of both parties to seek out “friendlies” in the press. While Cheney would seek out Brit Hume to defuse his hunting incident, Democrats would be more likely to seek out CNN, the NYT or CBS.
BTW, does Mike Wallace need to worry about future interview prospects?
August 20, 2006 at 9:59 PM in reply to: Bearish Fleckenstein: Stocks and dollar will fall, don’t SHORT #32527ParticipantPS,
I’ve always liked Fleck for his contrarian viewpoint. The problem I see right now is that his call for dollar weakness is today’s conventional wisdom.
When a contrarian buys into CW, is it time to follow or fade?
August 20, 2006 at 9:34 PM in reply to: Iraq is like the housing market – but not like you think #32526ParticipantPS,
To be honest, I couldn’t get through the interview. Up to the point where I’d had enough, there were no tough questions IMO. I’ve seen the 60 Minutes crew a lot tougher on miscreants who may have hosed someone’s Aunt Mabel for a few thousand bucks.
August 18, 2006 at 12:39 PM in reply to: Iraq is like the housing market – but not like you think #32339ParticipantDid anyone notice the german magazine Spiegel interviewed Iran’s president? Did a US media ever do this?
You must have missed his interview with Mike Wallace on 60 minutes last weekend.
BTW, the German magazine is der Spiegel.
ParticipantYou’ve been banging the inflation drum very hard. Are you reconsidering?
ParticipantBank defaults and foreclosures will lead to less money available for mortgages, so only the most creditworthy will qualify. This will reduce the number of possible buyers.
That certainly sounds like a reduction in credit demand to me. Very deflationary.
ParticipantNo offense intended but I think your idea is a bit on the sadistic side.
ParticipantRemember stagflation? That’s what’s next.
I couldn’t disagree more. It’s important to remember what drove the stagflation of the 1970’s. Hint: It wasn’t oil although oil certainly didn’t help. It was an upward spiral in wages and prices that took a major recession to correct.
Do you see any upward pressure on wages? I don’t.
Do you see inreased demand for credit? I don’t.
I expect in the aftermath of the housing bubble, credit demand will decline despite anything the Fed may do.
Where do you expect credit demand to come from?
Participant“This chart suggests that the extremes of the housing bubble exceed those of the dot-com era NASDAQ bubble, which in turn suggests that the severity of the coming decline might also exceed that of the dot-bomb era wealth destruction.”
We agree there’s a housing bubble. That’s why we’re here. I just think you and Charles Smith are reading too much into the chart. Like I said, you’re comparing a basket of 100 stocks across multiple industries to 20 stocks focused on one industry.
Also, maybe it’s a matter of semantics but I don’t consider the homebuilders to be bubble stocks. They made money off a bubble but their valuations were never close to the nuttiness that characterized the tech bubble.
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