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no_such_reality
Participant[quote=flu]Side jobs are created from change and engineering. Adapt or die. It’s that simple.
You’ll still need attorneys, accountants, people in marketing, sales, etc. It’s not really going to be any different.[/quote]
Therein is where you are wrong.
Technology is already making all but the highest functions in all of those roles redundant.
Technology is taking Pareto principle to the extreme. It’s replacing the 80% that consumes your time in the higher functions and replaces it. Basically augmenting one to do the prior job of 5 or 10 in the higher rules and flat out eliminating the junior roles.
RNs? Yep, them too. You’ll see greater portions of their role augmented with technology and then supplemented with more orderlies.
As you said, creativity is the solution. If you create you’re employable. But let’s be honest, what percentage of the current workforce, really creates? 1%? Not the 1% with money, just 1%. Not the 10% deciding what to do, not the 15% figuring out how to do what someone else has decided needs to be done, but actually, create, with brain power…
[quote]
Example:
Being a good software “programmer” is labor….Easily replaceable if not now in the distant future
Coming up with a solution to problems goes beyond simple if..then…else.
If things were so easy, companies like google wouldn’t employ so many thinkers…[/quote]All of those are replaceable. Creating isn’t problem solving, it’s knowing what problem needs to be solved. Many of those google employees are just good software “programmer”. Computers are becoming increasingly good at problem solving. Defining the problem, not so much.
If your role is figuring out “how to do X”, you’re replaceable. If your role is figuring out what “X” is, you’re maybe not.
ParticipantNo flu, that’s not the point. It’s starting to replace our brains as well.
The simple brain functions now, but steadily higher level brain functions.
January 23, 2013 at 10:44 AM in reply to: The Real Story Of How ‘Untouchable’ Wall Street Execs Avoided Prosecution #758306ParticipantActually, IMHO, if someone really simplified conveying the complexity of the CDO fiasco, bailout and beneficiaries so that the average, barely able to balance their checkbook American could understand, we’d have riots in the street.
The only problem is when you start drawing the lines the audacity of the fleecing, sheer ineptitude of all the checkpoints and brazen cronyism leaves any one explaining it looking two belt loops short of being as crazy as a tin foil hat Area-51 conspiracy whackjob.
January 22, 2013 at 2:34 PM in reply to: Over 21% of homeowners in SD County have paid off houses #758248Participant[quote=AN]
Lets look at what would happen if we see a repeat of 70s/80s where you can get CD rate around 15%. If you have $1M, your yearly interest would be $150k. If you paid off your house, your yearly interest would be $66k. After just 5 years, if you must have a paid off house, you can have it completely paid off in 5 years and still have $1M in your nest egg. While with the other scenario, you only have about $770k. So you’re already $230k less well off. Going forward, you’ll be perpetually in catch up mode compare to if you didn’t pay off the house. Lets assume this inflationary scenario happen when you’re still working. Your salary would drastically increase while your debt payment stay static in nominal term. [/quote]The stagflation of the 70/80s was particularly brutal for most investments.
I don’t think we’ll see a repeat, I think we’ll see something bizarrely different, something the central banks have no idea how to fight, nor will they even recognize it.
The seemingly impossible combination of continued deflationary threats, near zero risk premiums, stagnant economic growth while basic living commodities experience hyperinflation.
In it, we have the continued effort of our central banks printing money, maintaining near zero interest rates and driving interest rates for bank instruments and high quality corporate borrowing below the official inflationary measures. Why pay you 15% in a CD when they can get it from themselves for 0%?
Jobs and economic outputs will continue waffle between growth and contraction with a continued pressure on wages to the lowest global common denominator.
Meanwhile, continued regulatory items, water restrictions, urbanization and climate change will drive food prices to double digit yearly gains.
Oil, gas, and electricity will continue to see double digit gains as well, however, due to political desire, oil and gas is going to get hammered with carbon taxes and green energy is going to slurp tax incentives like, well, the last four years.
January 22, 2013 at 12:49 PM in reply to: Over 21% of homeowners in SD County have paid off houses #758235Participant[quote=flu][quote=squat300]I’m starting to sympathize with Lance more and more. Look, the guy won. he worked his tail off. He put together an amazing team. Sure he took performance enhancing drugs, but everyone did. he could not compete withoutt hem. Then, basically, people threatened to expose him and bring him down. Essentially that’s blackmail. Small little pathetic people who were afraid of success and greatness. So he did what he had to do.
no excuses![/quote]
If people didn’t idolize athletes to the extent they do they wouldn’t be so let down when they fail as a human. And seriously we all know probably most of them are drugged up. The other ones just haven’t been caught yet.[/quote]
Squat, I hope you’re tongue in cheek, IMHO, Lance is cretin and a epitome of everything gone wrong with a sport culture, right down to the culture on the block at ‘pee wee’ sports with foaming parents and accusations of ‘bounty hunting payments’.
But that’s a separate thread. Back to our current thread. IMHO, UCGal is right on. The house, and medical are the two big ones.
If you track your expenses, back out the house payment, the expenses of going to work and medical and see what discretionary is that you actually spend. Now figure out of that discretionary, how much is enjoyment and experience versus, we’re just too damn tired to cook so let’s go out tonight.
ParticipantIMHO, Lance, Bonds, Soto, Williams, pro-players in the Olympics et. al, much like our country’s debt problem only has one solution.
Performance enhancing drugs just need to be legalized. We’ll have ten years of hyper performing juiced crank heads and then they’ll start blowing apart and every one will get to see the true impacts of the juice.
January 18, 2013 at 1:29 PM in reply to: Obama re-elected to grow our national pie, not just re-divide it #757976Participant[quote=livinincali]
Maybe Lawerence Livermore will unlock fusion sooner than later, but we’re probably still decades away unless you do a Manhattan style project.[/quote]The entire cost of the Manhattan project was just under $2 billion, roughly $25 billion in today’s dollar.
Our 2012 deficit was $1.1 Trillion dollars, enough to run 44 Manhattan projects in their entirety. Each employing 130,000 people.
Along with the trillion in debt from 2011 being enough to fund 5 Apollo Moon programs, each in their entirety for the decade, just imagine what we could have done…
Take the 2010 trillion in debt, and Hoover Dam’s $49 million dollar price tag (call it a billion today) and just go ahead and build another thousand of those.
Participant[quote=CA renter][quote=Blogstar]It could get better even still. I have a banker paying for my house.[/quote]
What do you mean by that?[/quote]
He means his wife is a banker and he’s a stay at home dad. 🙂
ParticipantIt really depends on the house and kitchen. We have double oven and a counter top small microwave. Love the double oven. Use it when roasting or baking. Things like sweet potato oven fries in oven #2, while oven #1 does a slow braise. It also works well for baking, things like cookie, can be 4 or 6 pans at a time. Although that tends to create another problem of storing multiple cookie pans.
However the really useful part is having one set up with heavy baking stones for home pizza and breads. The other is used as a regular oven and then your not juggling the heavy stones all the time.
January 17, 2013 at 3:31 PM in reply to: Prop 30 money sold as funds for schools – watchdog reveals something else #757916ParticipantUgh, just lost a rather long post. Probably better for it. UCGAL, you’re technically correct. My point was figurative and not literal.
As craptcha points out, $75K to $113K is the squeeze zone now. you make enough that FICA rakes 7.65% of each additional dollar, the State rakes 9.3% of each dollar and the Feds want either their 15% if married or quarter if single. After taxes and housing a set of young DINKs making $75K will have about $600/week to cover everything else. Food, insurance, utilities, retirement, student loans, cars/bus, going out.
A family in the same range might with a couple kids have an extra $100-$200/month.
The house you buy doesn’t push your deduction high enough to beat the standardized deduction without major other expenses and if you have them you likely have serious problems.
That same $75K-$100K ‘family’ would likely feel pretty wealthy elsewhere, whereas here, they probably feel kind of strapped. That same feeling strapped family watches 30-40% of their annual raises get taken by taxes. And watch many things they buy with what’s left get hit for another 8% sales tax.
As for the BP house, I have to think of it some more or the real target buyer is now for that neighborhood. The location is a plus and curse at the same time. And to be honest, not a 100% sure what demographics shifts have occurred with the bubble. It used to be a nice integrated neighborhood of solid middle class families. I’m assuming it still is.
January 17, 2013 at 1:48 PM in reply to: Prop 30 money sold as funds for schools – watchdog reveals something else #757908ParticipantBG, you’re wrong. I said [quote]you need to down-grade your material lifestyle or make $200K plus to be in the good parts of Cali. And unless someone left you a house, $100K in Cali is lower middle income existence and it just gets worse as you go down from there[/quote]
As for stress free, I never said stress free, I said being given a house was a major economic advantage. As I said in a follow-up post [quote]As for the Escondido house, think about the economic advantage of not having rent, what’s that? $1400-$2200 a month they’re not forking over?[/quote]
One that took someone from being $100K or less earner and essentially “poor” to being on the same or better “housing” playing field as out of state. Or if nothing else, relieves them of paying “rent” in the $1400-$2200 range. Or puts them in a much more comfortable house for a much lower payment.
If someone gifted me that Buena Park house, I’d keep it and rent it. I know that area and it’s manageable for me as a rental. The Escondido house, is much less accessible being an hour plus without traffic to get to and I have no familiarity with the area.
The little rough gem in BP is sadly, probably a $2000+/month rental. I’ve lived in far worse when I was a renter.
And again, my real point with the BP house is that it’s essentially upper bounds for a $100K earner in Orange County without making yourself stupidly house poor. A living wage is 1/3rd of gross for housing. Well, they’re running close enough and that’s making $100K.
January 17, 2013 at 7:54 AM in reply to: Prop 30 money sold as funds for schools – watchdog reveals something else #757893Participant[quote=flu]1. Adopt or die…
2. Can’t cut it? Move out…
(#1 is copyrighted from another pigg).[/quote]
LOL, the California blindness. Anybody moving out ‘can’t cut it’.
Taxes are just one more straw on the camels back. Anybody moving purely for tax reasons, IMHO, is misguided.
They may be moving because of the impacts of those high taxes, our workers comp environment, our ADA lawsuit environment, our environmental regulatory environment, the AMQD requirements, the CARB requirements, our expense environment or the out migration of large corporate jobs, but solely taxes, no.
But in general, it’s the slow degradation in quality of life for otherwise rather successful and capable people that just not stellarly so.
The true irony is that most of the large out migration States (Washington, Arizona, Texas) really which most of the Californians would just go home. They move there and then want the same government oversight they’re fleeing.
And that’s the true disconnect. Which brings us back to econprof’s point. Are we getting the value. Or are we starting to disproportionately rely on a few to pay for us all.
IMHO, our value received is in the bottom 1/3rd and our disporportionateness is rather high.
Participant[quote=earlyretirement][quote=Essbee] Still, I’d rather see an adult / longtime San Diegan version of the same map. Lots of other fun stereotypes to poke fun at, I would think.[/quote]
You could always make a blank canvass and give us your adult version of it. I’d love to see that.[/quote]
Nah, you can only write DFC so many times.
ParticipantClever, no. My purchase was designed to provide a reasonable place to live, with good employment/business prospects in a very short commute and most importantly, create stability and predictability in our housing.
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