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no_such_reality
ParticipantI’m building a list for my future broker:
actives, pendings, cancelleds, expireds… DOMS for each.
REOs and NODs in neighborhood and/or X mile radius.
sales history.
Apparent fraud in area (NOD in 6-10 months of buy)
refi and sales history for the immediate neighborhood (I’ll need to know if that nice couple that bought in 2000 have refi’d themselves into future oblivion)
ask to sales spread
“real” sales price (sales price less commissions, credits, cash to buyer, etc.)Not sure about how they’ll get that short of calling all the brokers, any ideas or right term for it? Missing other critical things?
Not sure how likely I’m to get it and how much I should do myself.
ParticipantI doubt most appraisers would see anything other than the sales price and have no idea that it’s a strawman fraud buy.
Bugs did make a good point about pre-buy. I remember Fraudera Ranch doing a lottery to buy.
For appraisal they are REOs, they should show in comps as a REO. SD Realtor can chime in here, but IMHO, I’d kick my realtor in the head and find a way to sue them if they didn’t do enough work to disclose that very similar homes are REO within a couple blocks. This isn’t an appraisal issue as much as “hey, there’s a bunch of these homes with a motivated bank owning them”
ParticipantPC, that’s the one I’ve used. It’s a bit frustrating because they keep changing the format of the summary. The drill down is the same so you can reconstruct your numbers.
Anybody else find it oddly coincidental that they stopped reporting sales volume in the summary shortly after YOY sales volume turned consistently negative?
ParticipantYeah, I read OC renter’s blog too.
I’m not thinking of fraud, I’m simply thinking breach of contract. The buyer didn’t do fraud, he bought and re-appraised at market rate.
The appraiser hit the number for the paycheck.
The loan officer pushed the loan for the paycheck.
The underwriter verified the few numbers for the paycheck.
The bank pushed the whole no-doc/little doc stuff through for the profits.
The investment banks bundled and sold it to make their fat annual bonuses.
And the fraudsters churned the neighbor to push the comps.Now the ‘owner’ is looking at it going hey wait a minute, these people have pushed $1.5 million on me for a house of straw.
Don’t get me wrong, the buck stops with the owner/buyer. but the complicity runs through the whole industry.
In the end, as the others said, I have a feeling, I’m going to hold the bag on the bail out.
ParticipantWell, I went and pulled old numbers from SD Online to look at December 2004, 2005 and 2006.
That strength in December, didn’t exist.
Dec 2006 was 14% slower than Dec 2005.
Make it worse, Dec 2005 was 21% slower than Dec 2004.
Dec 2006 was a full 32% slower than Dec 2004.
It just looked strong compared to the normally slow November.
Here’s the resale home numbers:
Dec Units
2006 2329
2005 2716
2004 3446
Ratio Sales
2006/2005 -0.142488954
2005/2004 -0.211839814
2006/2004 -0.324143935ParticipantSanteeman, do you have the 2005 numbers, I can’t get search to turn up a previous posting. I’d like to see the numbers from Jan 2005 to now.
Everybody is babbling about the strength in January sales. January was weaker than last January 2006. Maybe they are thinking December, but I doubt that too.
Basically, the Sandicor numbers show both sales slowing YOY and prices dropping YOY, this is from last January when the good ship Market Titanic had already turned the corner.
All clear, no icebergs ahead!
ParticipantCall me when it’s $235K again.
Make an offer, you may be surprised.
ParticipantAverage Sales Price
Jan $611,273
Feb $624,744
Mar $610,474
Apr $628,778
May $626,598
Jun $637,166
July $624,111
Aug $614,767
Sept $617,623
Oct $591,709
Nov $593,965
Dec $605,538
Jan ’07 $586,229ParticipantJG, good work, one thought, families and singles are much more fragmented now than in 1970s.
People stay single much longer than previously, well into prior adulthood.
Families also are shrinking, less children per couple.
I’d guess that the divorce is higher now than in the 1970s since women have more economic options.
All these things point to a lower capita per unit.
ParticipantThat’s almost unbelievable.
Who actually approved loan docs and an appraisal for a 50% gain and $500,000 increase in 10 months?
ParticipantI think Zillow ends up showing the Repo price. If you look at sales history, would it make sense that the bank took it back for a $1.26M balance in Dec and is just getting it back on the market?
It looks like tax assessment is just over $1M, judging by the other homes near, it’s possible someone refi-ed themselves into foreclosure, or maybe Neg-Am’d the loan and neutroned themselves out of the house.
ParticipantI toured the KB homes in the Gilbert area of Phoenix Superbowl weekend. The homes ranged from modest to McMansions. Traffic was heavy, sales were slow. In all developments, the smallest cheapest plans were the ones that were selling.
Yes, the bottom was being sold out due to limited number but the larger units weren’t moving. We’re talking $20,000 base price difference and not moving.
ParticipantThose sales prices threw me for a loop. In my mind, they are the canary in the South OC market.
There all over the place, just not showing up on the comps decently yet. Give it a couple months, and the real comps, the low ones, will be readily apparent on the wish pricing and fraud activities.
ParticipantA dead skunk or coyote on the road is sad, but it still needs to be cleaned up by someone.
There’s nothing vulturous and scummy about being a foreclosure guy, someone has to pick the mess up. Say hello to your well paid financial janitor. The next booming real estate job.
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