[no_such_reality]

He “needs” a home for his family, doesn’t want to rent for $2500/month

Um, $920,000 earning 8% at a 40% tax bracket leaves $44,000 after taxes.

Rent at $2500/month only requires $30,000.

A 6% mortgage on $920K after taxes runs about $5000/month when property tax and mellow roos are include.

If he need a home, there’s a slew of them to rent.

[no_such_reality]

I asked the sales persons

Why would you believe what the sales person says is happening? They only get paid if you buy. There are many articles where buyers are protesting saying the sales people said the next phase would be X and it isn’t. Or sales people said the builder would never, and they are.

Tied of checking out market news every day, guilt of wife pressure, will buy new soon

Go forth an buy then, as you say, if you loose $100K it doesn’t matter to you.

[no_such_reality]

This result is completely expected by the market. The premarket down is panicked individuals that don’t get it.

Overall, CFC stock price is above where is spent most of the last six weeks. At the moment,roughly 11:00 AM EST, CFC is at the previous close.

[no_such_reality]

He needs a bail-out. He was lied too, he says so himself.

Never mind he’s a big enough ‘investor’ to have speculated in places all across the country from San Diego, Salt Lake City, Florida.

He went for it and now it failing and he isn’t taking ownership of it.

Schadenfreude on my part, but instead of taken his small beating in Florida and running, he’s going to go down with the ship. It’ll take his Salt Lake city stuff with it and anything he owns locally too since he’s draining his primary residence with HELOCs to the tune of $3000 a month.

I stand by my original supposition. The damage in the market from loan resets etc will work regular home-owners, but Casey Serin and Jeff will be leading the way when they bust on 5,6,7,8 or more properties across multiple states.

There are a lot of these guys and they’re all holding the bag on several properties. That really concerns me.

[no_such_reality]

I would expect to see some support at $450K. That’s a good 20% below what others are wishing for.

I’m not saying it won’t go lower, but I expect some pausing in the SD market every $50K or so on these more average homes.

[no_such_reality]

I was talking about inflation on a national scale with its relation to interest rates.

I thought the bond market and mortgage got primarily driven by the Treasury market. The treasury market is typical driven by inflation with the 10/30 years being inflation plus 3%.

Overall, for generic prices of commodities whether food, cars, housing, entertainment, etc, have seen a fairly consistant 2%+/- since 2000.

[no_such_reality]

They couldn’t sell the house for $1 million at the trustee sale but were able to sell it for $1.3-$1.4 million at a later date. How does that work?

I’d guess one of three reasons:

1. The market was really soft in January. At least now, we have an illusion of a spring pop.

2. There may have been a small 2nd or other suborbinate lien attached that got wiped out by the 1st going foreclosure. The junior lien holder didn’t step up to cover the million in an effort to save their smaller loss.

3. $1.05M is about 22% below $1.3M, that’s a little lean for REO flip. Sure, $300,000 looks like a lot on paper, but at that level of leverage, a percent here, percent there, and you’re back under water before you know it.

[no_such_reality]

It went into escrow in less than 1 week and most likely will close above $1.3M.

For a minor point, 2002 & 2001 where 5 and 6 years ago.

Inflation from then to now puts the July 2001 sale at about $1.250M in current dollars and the October 2002 sales at about $1.285M in current dollars.

At $1.3M sale today, is basically a wash with inflation to the 2002 sale.

At $1.3M today, it represents about a less than 1% above inflation from 2001. At $1.4M represents about 2% above inflation from either 2001 or 2002.

Since most of SD showed 13% above inflation compounded returns, that Del Mar sale even at $1.4M is looking pretty anemic IMHO. Still, Del Mar is holding it’s double-plus from the bottom, we’ll see how many of the less desireable areas do.

[no_such_reality]

Those prices are about level with last fall are they not?

Overall the price is off about 15-20% from peak correct?

How is the price per/sq ft holding up? Granted, they’re huge which drives the price/ft down, but $243 seems really low. Or maybe I’ve just been staring at condos in Irvine with $500/ft tags too long.

[no_such_reality]

I’m bearish. I’m also looking to buy. It’s a damnedable situation. The question is how much will prices in the neighborhood you want really come down? Answer: who knows.

the nice areas don’t seem to have the same rate of houses for sale or the “repo” or “bank owned” signs on them. the crummier areas, and areas that have lousy locations seem like they are going up for sale at a much higher rate

Makes sense to me. It isn’t because the nice areas have people with money. It’s a part, but smaller than you think. My experience with OC may be different than SD, SD locals chime in here.

What I saw in OC looked like a wave from a rock hitting water.

The wave started in the nicest areas. Volume and price surged there. six months, a year later, pricing kept rising, but moderated, volume fell. The next nicer neighborhood surged at that point, volume and prices exploded, prices kept rising, more moderated, but volume fell. The third nicest areas exploded, repeat pattern. We then hit late 2004/2005, the cruddy areas exploded in large swaths and build-out areas exploded with speculators.

What you’re seeing at the moment is the collapse of that last portion of the wave. The nicer areas have a much greater percentage of people bought earlier, 2 years, 3years, 4/5 years. They’ve refinanced, locked long term rates rates at 5.25% and will sit happy to the end of time. There’s some hitting of the ATM, but it probably accounts for less than 10% of the homes. IMHO, the closer to 2005 the purchase, the more likely the housing ATM is being raided.

The buyers in the nicer areas typically, have much more cushion to negotiate, refi and/or ride it out. Their prices will get pulled down relative to the less nice areas, but there won’t as much of a push that the cruddy areas have.

Just m2c.

[no_such_reality]

Hmm, okay, found it. It’s a pair of stories.
Foreclosure Map of Misery

Moreno Valley Foreclosures like in the 90s

I caught this down in it. “Richardson said by the time they asked Countrywide Financial for help, they owed the lender about $10,000. He said the couple could not afford a plan the lender proposed that would have required them to pay $6,000 of what they owed and then make up the rest in installments added to their regular mortgage payment. ”

sounds like loan modification isn’t saving the day there…

[no_such_reality]

On average there’s no discernable difference between the amount you’ll spend on HOA fees

LOL, is that a study commissioned by the Property Management Asosciation?

In an extremely well run HOA where the individuals on the board are versed in what they are doing and bargaining for and not running an personal agenda, maybe. However, my personal experience is HOA’s squander and in general get gouged extensively.

[no_such_reality]

I’m exaggerating a bit here.

I don’t think so. That’s a very dated interior. Like old apartments, they can’t command rent. Downtown is flooded with new decked out condos that will be competing desperately for renters.

[no_such_reality]

Surveyor, you’re not an absentee owner. You’re a principle in a real group that has rental properties in other locations that have principles in them, correct?

[no_such_reality]

Speaking of which, can someone please tell me why the FBI won’t pick up the low hanging fruit that is now lying on the ground and arrest and try Casey Serin for mortgage fraud?

1. He admits to lying on the loans.

2. It is over a million dollars. Actually over $2 million.

3. It covers four different States.

Granted a million is going to be small potatoes, but this is a single guy, running his mouth everywhere.

IMHO, a nice fat Perp walk on the nightly news of real estate mogul Casey will do the RE industry and specuflippers a lot of good to give them a much needed reality check.

Kind of put a check on the inflated appraisals, raise some eyebrows at the cash back deals, let buyers know that loan-lying really isn’t accepted, etc.

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