[no_such_reality]

as to those of you who have any interst in my situation – my wife and I bought our rental. $350k for 1866 sq ft. one story. 3BD/2BA.

Congrats, you nailed it with the following: i ran all the numbers of renting vs buying. and candidly – i’m going to be paying about the same to buy this house compared to renting something similar.

That’s what everybody needs to keep in mind. If they can gamble on prices coming down 10-20% next year, they also gamble on three critical components: financing, inventory and upkeep.

With the prices mentioned here, the last three years of buyers will be priced-in to their homes, unable to sell unless they’re willing to go to foreclosure.

They’re also gambling that interest rates will stay near 50 year lows and not return to a more normal rates which will result in the same out of pocket.

The third gamble they’re taking is the quality of the home. I remember resale houses in the early 90s, upkeep is the first thing sacraficed when the money get’s tight. As you said, you’ve got the upgrades you want. Sellers are still updating homes to unload them, in another year, that’ll stop.

[no_such_reality]

as to those of you who have any interst in my situation – my wife and I bought our rental. $350k for 1866 sq ft. one story. 3BD/2BA.

Congrats, you nailed it with the following: i ran all the numbers of renting vs buying. and candidly – i’m going to be paying about the same to buy this house compared to renting something similar.

That’s what everybody needs to keep in mind. If they can gamble on prices coming down 10-20% next year, they also gamble on three critical components: financing, inventory and upkeep.

With the prices mentioned here, the last three years of buyers will be priced-in to their homes, unable to sell unless they’re willing to go to foreclosure.

They’re also gambling that interest rates will stay near 50 year lows and not return to a more normal rates which will result in the same out of pocket.

The third gamble they’re taking is the quality of the home. I remember resale houses in the early 90s, upkeep is the first thing sacraficed when the money get’s tight. As you said, you’ve got the upgrades you want. Sellers are still updating homes to unload them, in another year, that’ll stop.

[no_such_reality]

The tax law is changing hence you’re seeing a rush to complete the private offerings before they become more expensive.

[no_such_reality]

The tax law is changing hence you’re seeing a rush to complete the private offerings before they become more expensive.

[no_such_reality]

SD will be fine compared to Sacramento, the IE, Bakersfield, etc.

[no_such_reality]

SD will be fine compared to Sacramento, the IE, Bakersfield, etc.

[no_such_reality]

Duck, what were you looking at? The ones that went NOD this week? NOTS this week? Of just the list of all NODs/NOTs they have?

What I’ve always heard was if you want a deal in foreclosures, you need to buy it before it’s foreclosed.

Once it’s foreclosed, you don’t have any guarantees that anything is still okay with the house. Frankly I suspect we see much more of the pigs been let loose in the house thing. Or, like the 90s downtown, you’ll step in to find the cabinets gone, appliances gone, sink, fixtures gone, and possibly, even the walls ripped open to get the copper wire and pipe for their salvage value if it stays high.

[no_such_reality]

Duck, what were you looking at? The ones that went NOD this week? NOTS this week? Of just the list of all NODs/NOTs they have?

What I’ve always heard was if you want a deal in foreclosures, you need to buy it before it’s foreclosed.

Once it’s foreclosed, you don’t have any guarantees that anything is still okay with the house. Frankly I suspect we see much more of the pigs been let loose in the house thing. Or, like the 90s downtown, you’ll step in to find the cabinets gone, appliances gone, sink, fixtures gone, and possibly, even the walls ripped open to get the copper wire and pipe for their salvage value if it stays high.

[no_such_reality]

Yes, the keyword is cheap.

The keyword is affordable.

Cheap is cheap. Unfortunately, when we allow low cost housing, what is typically built is tenament style ghettos.

Other than higher land acquisition costs, there is little reason why the cost of construction is $200+/sf than units were gouging the price of $500/sf.

[no_such_reality]

Yes, the keyword is cheap.

The keyword is affordable.

Cheap is cheap. Unfortunately, when we allow low cost housing, what is typically built is tenament style ghettos.

Other than higher land acquisition costs, there is little reason why the cost of construction is $200+/sf than units were gouging the price of $500/sf.

[no_such_reality]

Does anybody have a link to the slides? They’d be interesting to see, the lecture was really good.

[no_such_reality]

Does anybody have a link to the slides? They’d be interesting to see, the lecture was really good.

[no_such_reality]

You either funded or you didn’t.

IMHO, if it didn’t fund, it’s a sales pitch.

Personally, I find the loan portion of RE to be the sleasiest part. Maybe I just need better bankers, but in the past, you have to double check every number and terms on signing day or you find a different rate, penalty clause, higher fees, extra fees, etc.

I’m wondering if SD has the same kinds of advertisements showing up in the busines and marketplace sections as we do in OC. Nice little box ads: “Be The Bank” “Beat The Bank” make 11-15% secured by real estate etc, for directs sales of Option Arms to “investors”.

I haven’t noticed them before in the OC, but it pretty tells you what the major market tolerance is for them.

[no_such_reality]

You either funded or you didn’t.

IMHO, if it didn’t fund, it’s a sales pitch.

Personally, I find the loan portion of RE to be the sleasiest part. Maybe I just need better bankers, but in the past, you have to double check every number and terms on signing day or you find a different rate, penalty clause, higher fees, extra fees, etc.

I’m wondering if SD has the same kinds of advertisements showing up in the busines and marketplace sections as we do in OC. Nice little box ads: “Be The Bank” “Beat The Bank” make 11-15% secured by real estate etc, for directs sales of Option Arms to “investors”.

I haven’t noticed them before in the OC, but it pretty tells you what the major market tolerance is for them.

[no_such_reality]

PC, what I noticed in that article and in the Sacramento one is the extent that NODS are going to trustee sale.

If they had 2400 NODS in Jan-May and 1440 Trustee sales, it’s looking like 47.5% or so of the NODs to to foreclosure. Actually higher if one assume NODs are increasing slightly on average month to month. Sacramento had similar numbers.

San Diego in Jan-Apr had 5820 NODS and 1978 Foreclosures, a 34% rate.

Back at Innovest’s foreclosure statss for the 90s bottom and we see that San Diego previously lept from a 30% going to foreclosure to a 50% going to foreclosure in Q1 ’94 and stayed there for 3 years.

More importantly, the Trustee deed volume was about 10% below todays. I think that puts it at about even when adjusting for population growth. adjusted.

Looking at the ARM reset curve and adding an a Bakersfield like NOD to Foreclosure rate paints a very grim picture given were already at a population adjusted foreclosure rate equal to the bottom of the last cycle and this cycle is just starting.

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