[no_such_reality]

[quote=davelj]…I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. …

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[/quote]

You’re just missing that piddly little $450/month Principal payment. And the PMI on the loan, which will be another $200 a month.

So after tax, out of pocket for housing, not including repairs, etc, runs about $2500.

Eventually you’ll get the principal back, maybe. But you’ll need to make payments for about four years before the principal payments cover the future commission…

[no_such_reality]

[quote=davelj]…I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. …

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[/quote]

You’re just missing that piddly little $450/month Principal payment. And the PMI on the loan, which will be another $200 a month.

So after tax, out of pocket for housing, not including repairs, etc, runs about $2500.

Eventually you’ll get the principal back, maybe. But you’ll need to make payments for about four years before the principal payments cover the future commission…

[no_such_reality]

[quote=davelj]…I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. …

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[/quote]

You’re just missing that piddly little $450/month Principal payment. And the PMI on the loan, which will be another $200 a month.

So after tax, out of pocket for housing, not including repairs, etc, runs about $2500.

Eventually you’ll get the principal back, maybe. But you’ll need to make payments for about four years before the principal payments cover the future commission…

[no_such_reality]

[quote=davelj]…I assumed a $375K price and a 5% mortgage, financing the entire balance (to avoid having to think about the opportunity cost of the down payment). I get an interest component of the mortgage payment at $1563 (tax effected at 20% down to $1250), property taxes of $313 (tax effected at 20% down to $250), and a $375 HOA. So, that gets us to $1900 after tax. …

Anyhow… just a few numbers to toss around, although I’m sure you’ve already done this analysis.

[/quote]

You’re just missing that piddly little $450/month Principal payment. And the PMI on the loan, which will be another $200 a month.

So after tax, out of pocket for housing, not including repairs, etc, runs about $2500.

Eventually you’ll get the principal back, maybe. But you’ll need to make payments for about four years before the principal payments cover the future commission…

[no_such_reality]

Shadow inventory is more a gut check than hard measure. It has two primary components: foreclosures held by the banks that aren’t actively listed and the amorphous legions of people that want to sell but are either already upside down or unwilling to give it away cause they still think a rebound to 2006 prices is only a couple years away.

There is a quazi third piece, the foreclosure pipeline however that is really just the 2nd piece not getting their rebound in time to prevent them from becoming the 1st piece.

I honestly can’t tell you about Mira Mesa or many specific areas of SD, but in OC, the heavy selling areas post 2003 (OC is at 2003 pricing) have subtantial shadow inventory. You see it in the lack of homes for sale and a comparison to the low values and foreclosures.

Can they afford it? Maybe. But how long will a person hold on to a $700,000 loan when they can’t sell it for $450,000?

Of course, it does beg the obvious question, can they afford it? I don’t think so since foreclosure looks like a Christmas tree with the bulbs of NODs, NOTs, and REOs.

In the past, if you got into financial stress, you sold the house and salvaged what equity you could. If you upside down like the many of the buyers what do you do? Grind a short sale? That requires admitting that you really can’t afford it and in OC and parts of SD, conspicious consumption was the rule of the day.

The biggest roadblock to declining prices is the denial that we aren’t as rich as we pretend to be.

[no_such_reality]

Shadow inventory is more a gut check than hard measure. It has two primary components: foreclosures held by the banks that aren’t actively listed and the amorphous legions of people that want to sell but are either already upside down or unwilling to give it away cause they still think a rebound to 2006 prices is only a couple years away.

There is a quazi third piece, the foreclosure pipeline however that is really just the 2nd piece not getting their rebound in time to prevent them from becoming the 1st piece.

I honestly can’t tell you about Mira Mesa or many specific areas of SD, but in OC, the heavy selling areas post 2003 (OC is at 2003 pricing) have subtantial shadow inventory. You see it in the lack of homes for sale and a comparison to the low values and foreclosures.

Can they afford it? Maybe. But how long will a person hold on to a $700,000 loan when they can’t sell it for $450,000?

Of course, it does beg the obvious question, can they afford it? I don’t think so since foreclosure looks like a Christmas tree with the bulbs of NODs, NOTs, and REOs.

In the past, if you got into financial stress, you sold the house and salvaged what equity you could. If you upside down like the many of the buyers what do you do? Grind a short sale? That requires admitting that you really can’t afford it and in OC and parts of SD, conspicious consumption was the rule of the day.

The biggest roadblock to declining prices is the denial that we aren’t as rich as we pretend to be.

[no_such_reality]

Shadow inventory is more a gut check than hard measure. It has two primary components: foreclosures held by the banks that aren’t actively listed and the amorphous legions of people that want to sell but are either already upside down or unwilling to give it away cause they still think a rebound to 2006 prices is only a couple years away.

There is a quazi third piece, the foreclosure pipeline however that is really just the 2nd piece not getting their rebound in time to prevent them from becoming the 1st piece.

I honestly can’t tell you about Mira Mesa or many specific areas of SD, but in OC, the heavy selling areas post 2003 (OC is at 2003 pricing) have subtantial shadow inventory. You see it in the lack of homes for sale and a comparison to the low values and foreclosures.

Can they afford it? Maybe. But how long will a person hold on to a $700,000 loan when they can’t sell it for $450,000?

Of course, it does beg the obvious question, can they afford it? I don’t think so since foreclosure looks like a Christmas tree with the bulbs of NODs, NOTs, and REOs.

In the past, if you got into financial stress, you sold the house and salvaged what equity you could. If you upside down like the many of the buyers what do you do? Grind a short sale? That requires admitting that you really can’t afford it and in OC and parts of SD, conspicious consumption was the rule of the day.

The biggest roadblock to declining prices is the denial that we aren’t as rich as we pretend to be.

[no_such_reality]

Shadow inventory is more a gut check than hard measure. It has two primary components: foreclosures held by the banks that aren’t actively listed and the amorphous legions of people that want to sell but are either already upside down or unwilling to give it away cause they still think a rebound to 2006 prices is only a couple years away.

There is a quazi third piece, the foreclosure pipeline however that is really just the 2nd piece not getting their rebound in time to prevent them from becoming the 1st piece.

I honestly can’t tell you about Mira Mesa or many specific areas of SD, but in OC, the heavy selling areas post 2003 (OC is at 2003 pricing) have subtantial shadow inventory. You see it in the lack of homes for sale and a comparison to the low values and foreclosures.

Can they afford it? Maybe. But how long will a person hold on to a $700,000 loan when they can’t sell it for $450,000?

Of course, it does beg the obvious question, can they afford it? I don’t think so since foreclosure looks like a Christmas tree with the bulbs of NODs, NOTs, and REOs.

In the past, if you got into financial stress, you sold the house and salvaged what equity you could. If you upside down like the many of the buyers what do you do? Grind a short sale? That requires admitting that you really can’t afford it and in OC and parts of SD, conspicious consumption was the rule of the day.

The biggest roadblock to declining prices is the denial that we aren’t as rich as we pretend to be.

[no_such_reality]

Shadow inventory is more a gut check than hard measure. It has two primary components: foreclosures held by the banks that aren’t actively listed and the amorphous legions of people that want to sell but are either already upside down or unwilling to give it away cause they still think a rebound to 2006 prices is only a couple years away.

There is a quazi third piece, the foreclosure pipeline however that is really just the 2nd piece not getting their rebound in time to prevent them from becoming the 1st piece.

I honestly can’t tell you about Mira Mesa or many specific areas of SD, but in OC, the heavy selling areas post 2003 (OC is at 2003 pricing) have subtantial shadow inventory. You see it in the lack of homes for sale and a comparison to the low values and foreclosures.

Can they afford it? Maybe. But how long will a person hold on to a $700,000 loan when they can’t sell it for $450,000?

Of course, it does beg the obvious question, can they afford it? I don’t think so since foreclosure looks like a Christmas tree with the bulbs of NODs, NOTs, and REOs.

In the past, if you got into financial stress, you sold the house and salvaged what equity you could. If you upside down like the many of the buyers what do you do? Grind a short sale? That requires admitting that you really can’t afford it and in OC and parts of SD, conspicious consumption was the rule of the day.

The biggest roadblock to declining prices is the denial that we aren’t as rich as we pretend to be.

[no_such_reality]

Drain the pool, bulldoze the house, cap it with quick dry concrete.

Oh wait, they’re already doing that.

[no_such_reality]

Drain the pool, bulldoze the house, cap it with quick dry concrete.

Oh wait, they’re already doing that.

[no_such_reality]

Drain the pool, bulldoze the house, cap it with quick dry concrete.

Oh wait, they’re already doing that.

[no_such_reality]

Drain the pool, bulldoze the house, cap it with quick dry concrete.

Oh wait, they’re already doing that.

[no_such_reality]

Drain the pool, bulldoze the house, cap it with quick dry concrete.

Oh wait, they’re already doing that.

[no_such_reality]

[quote=Aecetia]Only you would turn this pandemic into an opportunity to misbehave. Why not use your old line about having the antidote or antibodies in your system?[/quote]

Well, I’d bet coffee that the potentially pandemic, super nasty, end of the world flu is the same flu that was going around at the end of spring break that was on the news as a late season flu resurgence.

Now, time for a little math. In the USA, we typically have 36,000 deaths a year from the flu. We have a population of 303,000,000.

Mexico city, let’s call that ground zero, is 24,000,000 in population with much of the population living in poverty.

An equivalent annual death rate would be 2850. Roughly 100/week for the six months of high activity. Mexico, has had 159 in about two weeks.

I would expect Mexico city to have a much worse death rate for general flu than the US due to poverty.

[Author]

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