[Nancy_s soothsayer]

PS – A suggestion: You can be the next John Steinbeck. The greatest economic documenters/storytellers will always have their names in the classics files. With the energy, insight, and intellectual caliber emanated/projected from you to me as reader, I don’t have a doubt, you highly qualify.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Powayseller, a personal question if I may be so bold. Where and how are you going to divest, in general terms?

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

SoCalARM,

Sell NOW. The foreclosure tsunami is approaching SouthCal shores because of too many funny-money loans propping huge mortgage loans. You will be able to buy again a nicer house in similar area at deep discounted rates after 4-5 years. Many of these “debt-drowned” refugees will migrate out of Southcal to get rehabilitation in cheaper locales.

The price of oil, which is higher now in Southcal, is going to get higher still, because of BP Amoco’s problems. For example, gas prices in Texas in the foreseeable future won’t be as expensive as in California ($2.89 vs.$3.39 lately.) Because of cheaper living costs in midwestern states like Texas, folks would be following out-migration from SouthCal to cheaper midwestern states, leaving more vacant homes in SouthCal for you to choose from later on.

Better still, why not follow the herd of out-migration from SouthCal? This is just an idea to think about. During the Depression in the 1930’s, it was the Okies going their way to California. This time around, it will be the other way – the Cali-poories going to Oklahoma. The soon-to-be Bushco-NAFTA mega/super highway and corridors will make their travels easier to rehabilitation land.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Am addicted to this blog, as well. Sometimes “Lord of the Flies” environment materializes in many threads, like this one, with several bodies pouncing on the one person who exhibits a degree of being different. Crab mentality, like putting down, condescending on, and stepping on someone and his/her ideas, in order to gain superiority points with others who get easily swayed, those baited and swayed again add higher into the pile. All these are added bonuses to this site. It gets hot and spicy a lot. To top it all, the Sophisticates around here (excuse me, I’m not) will discern those with higher intellect and will judge accordingly. There is a message in an Ayn Rand book I read long ago. In essence, it says, those with higher intellect don’t require too much explanation. They have rapid comprehension and processing speeds. One post in another thread shared a link that said basically the same thing about the Sophisticates (with extreme intellect). There are a lot lurking in this blog. To me, Rich Toscano and Powayseller–who are not lurkers–carry the big stick in sophistication, and I am unabashedly, a big fan. I hope PS doesn’t tire of her critics until I stop being addicted.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

PS – I feel like I am in the same boat. After sinking 250K in the house (hard asset)I live in, that I don’t think will depreciate much, paying full cash and no mortgage, I am still sitting on $300K CD earning 5.12%p/yr that is just “burning a hole in my pants” not knowing what to do with it with the huge recession/stagflation staring me in the face. I feel paralyzed into inaction. I keep reading economic blogs and this blog to discern whatever the best minds have in mind to guide me along and get me some strong validation to some specific action — but to no avail. I am still with no answers for myself. I feel that my money in CD’s is like a wasting asset with the misreported inflation rate. Sorry for my ramblings. And to be brutally honest, I hate those critics (esp. Dr. Pangloss) who get so condescending and resort to personal attacks,like I am doing now, of course…but here goes: I want to share that I have entertained these wealth preservation ideas personally, all of them kooky:

Perhaps withdraw some good amount and plow it in fishpond lands in the Philippines (that was where I came from). I already started a small amount in this direction ($20K) and bought me 1.5 hectares worth of fishponds. After all, if America goes into the pits and start behaving like a third-world country like the Philippines (I don’t wish it because I am an American Citizen and try to embrace the flag like the NeoCons do),no?, then it is not bad to retire 6 months each year in the Philippines –Art Bell of Coast-to-Coast–was setting an example here. Pick your third world country perhaps and invest in feeding the world that suffers in Depression, no?

Now, what would I do with the rest of my money? Shoud I invest in uranium (maybe Cameco?) because I find investing in gold and silver just plain silly. What do gold jewelries do to add to humankind? Miniscule to me. OTOH, Uranium demand might continue its upward trajectory in the future because people will need more nuclear plants — Peak Oil is the reason, no? China is definitely building more nuclear plants to power up all new empty buildings they own and needs more uranium if oil slows to a trickle….

Now, what if uranium is not ok? Should I take my money out of US CD’s and take it accross border of Canada and buy Canadian CD’s to be sheltered from vagaries of depreciating US dollar? Would Canadian banks let me, a US citizen, do that? I don’t know… Has anyone tried? How about liquidity in such should I want to withdraw it fast? These are personal questions I ask myself only–no need for others to go get answers for me.

Should I continue keeping $50K in stocks? I haven’t sold my stocks in Pfizer, Verizon, AEP, Wyeth, and CMS yet. Although I have lost money in them because I bought them in 2002 and have not seen profits at all… I still own them. (Duh!) Should I sell them all now at a loss after holding them so many years? My stocks in Honda, Mittal steel, Consol coal, BEAV aerospace – all bought in 2002, have been good to me, however. Should I continue keeping them? Again, these are personal questions I ask myself –not asking others to go get answers for me.

Wealth preservation is a hard thing for me indeed. I don’t mean to gloat…just to share and bounce my ideas to others in case the right person comes along to give me more kooky ideas to entertain.

Powayseller, pardon my musings, I admire you a lot. With your so-called “bluntness” and “blanket-ness”, those only add to your appeal to me as reader. Thank you for the so-many substantive posts you have done in the past. I don’t have the same long patience and forebearance you inherently possess. I tire and give up easily in debates. I don’t like to engage Dr. Pangloss and the likes of him, hence, I only like to read sensible posts from many others and especially yours. I didn’t intend to post much. I am by nature a wallflower or a fly in the wall given to delusions of having the same skills as Nancy’s soothsayer in the other white house. I long for reading more of your posts and wish for your continued success at increasing financial security. And I wish Good Luck to all, also.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

Same story goes with Kyocera – (former) manufacturer of cell phones in San Diego. Software engineer jobs at Kyocera have been getting outsourced overseas in recent months. The huge manufacturing plant around La Jolla now sits almost empty like a ghost town. High-paying jobs in San Diego are slowly dying away –ditto, “RIP-San Diego”.

This soothsayer says, because of the equity or wealth destruction coming in the next few years in SD, compounded by loss of high-paying jobs, there will be many people who will feel psychological discouragement and will use their displaced energies (that in previous years were spent shopping for garage thrash and toys greased by housing ATM)venting and lashing out. Rage will be seen in so many forms. Some in crystal ball: Road rage will intensify; SUV and car torchings will gain attention; office politics will become meaner and nastier; grifters and con men will come out of the woodworks – not to mention property thefts and vandalisms. Assessors office will be saddled with housing property tax reassessments like you’ve seen in 1994-95. To pick up the pieces off the floor of the housing crash, many will find their salvation by moving away from San Diego.

[Nancy_s soothsayer]

“If prices dropped precipetiously I might consider it though I love where I live…”

Bingo!

Maybe in the next 2 or 3 years, the bloodbath in San Diego will be so appalling that moving away would become the salvation for many. This soothsayer says inventory by 2008 will be in the 40K’s. Foreclosures would be through the roof. Many will be moving to San Antonio and Austin Texas.

My analogy – SDRealtor is Dr. Pangloss and Powayseller is Martin in the book Candide by Voltaire.

Boy, I miss Powayseller’s prolific posts. I’m a big fan.

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