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Myriad
Participant[quote=moneymaker]Just noticed my first dividend payout from my ATT stock. Sweet![/quote]
Enjoy it while it lasts. With $170B in debt, any mistake and they’ll have to cut the dividend. Hopefully they don’t screw up HBO while they are cost cutting.
ParticipantSeems like a good time to sell when a stock is at a high market cap relative all other stocks in previous history.
INTC/CSCO in the 2000s. Maybe MSFT, AAPL, AMZN these days.April 8, 2019 at 11:09 AM in reply to: For 2018 Taxes, what is QBI and how do you qualify a profitable rental as QBI? #812240ParticipantRental services for purpose of this revenue procedure include: (i) advertising to rent or lease the real estate; (ii) negotiating and executing leases; (iii) verifying information contained in prospective tenant applications; (iv) collection of rent; (v) daily operation, maintenance, and repair of the property; (vi)
management of the real estate; (vii) purchase of materials; and (viii) supervision of employees and independent contractors.
Rental services may be performed by owners or by employees, agents, and/or independent contractors of the owners. The term rental services does not include financial or investment management activities, such as arranging financing; procuring property; studying and reviewing financial statements or reports on operations; planning, managing, or constructing long-term capital improvements; or hours spent traveling to and from the real estate.You should start documenting the hours spent. For 2018, you can estimate and claim ignorance. The probability is that the IRS isn’t going to audit this for 99.9% of rental property owners. The worst thing that can happen is that you pay back the QBI reduction.
April 3, 2019 at 11:06 PM in reply to: For 2018 Taxes, what is QBI and how do you qualify a profitable rental as QBI? #812227ParticipantI think if you know the rules in detail for QBI, you could probably start your own tax practice.
I thought the tax reform was supposed to simply taxes…Back to the question, this website has really good info on various tax topics.
The IRS issued this
https://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-19-07.pdfMarch 7, 2019 at 10:00 AM in reply to: Rural Urban Divide, Millennial Lifestyles & City of the Future #812002Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Finally, the city of San Diego is allowing development without parking. About time.
[/quote]This policy might work for downtown and areas near DT where people can get to everything without driving. However, for neighborhoods in the suburbs, this will be a shitshow for a few years. Most people will still have to have a car to get around within the neighborhoods, or if they work at a location with poor transit (most of SD).
I’m all for more public transit and higher density at the right locations, but SD’s public transit infrastructure is weak, especially going East/West and within neighborhoods.
I live along the 56 corridor. The 56 is severely congested every day. Meanwhile, the city continues to plan to add thousands of units of housing along the corridor, with no plan for better transit. More lanes on the 56, that’s planned for after 2030. Express lanes – nope, express buses to UTC/Torrey Pines/Sorrento Mesa – nope.
February 4, 2019 at 10:47 AM in reply to: Any peer to peer mortgage sites with decent interest rates? #811700ParticipantSeems like a lot of risk to take on a peer to peer loan.
If principal is absolute, then municipal bond or TIPs is probably the way to go.
Otherwise, a REIT (public or private) or crowdfunded Commercial RE seems like a better investment.Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
Really? We are the ones withdrawing from the status quo by leaving international institutions that we built, leaving empty space for China to fill. [/quote]
Agree with that. The US has some pretty shitty foreign policy. The last time we had a coherent policy was probably back in the Cold War.[quote=FlyerInHi]
If you’re so sure the China’s economic model results in misallocations, then let them knock themselves out. [/quote]
Right, the system won’t be a collapse. Just private companies in China suffer. We’ll see if it’s a contributor to the middle income trap. [/quote][quote=FlyerInHi]
The military build-up by China is thanks to the growing size of their economy and what that affords them to buy. Strategically, they need to build their military before their ageing demographics makes it much harder. Do you expect them to not plan?
If we trade less with China, trade more with Vietnam (Philippines, or other countries), but if Vietnam buys telecom, infrastructure and tech from China (because Chinese stuff is best and cheapest for Vietnam’s stage of development), then China will become even better at building higher value tech, and that will help their military. TPP was designed to counter that by giving Vietnam preferential access to the US market, but with Trump departing TPP, Vietnam is now just like any WTO country. Why is the US not building high speed rail, seaports, etc.. for Vietnam on credit? [/quote]
Nothing wrong with each country building up their own miltiary. I have no issue with that. Japan, Korea, India all have large militaries.
Agree on TPP – that goes back to the crap foreign poliicies of the US.[quote=FlyerInHi]
On territorial disputes, we already said that don’t have a dog in the race. The countries in the regions need to work it out among them themselves. And so far all is quiet so let them work it out. [/quote]
We only have a stake in that the freedom of access to air and oceans is allowed beyond the 12 mile limit for recognized territories. It is not all quiet in the region – which is why everyone is building their military up. If China didn’t create an ADIZ over the South China Sea and built “miltiary” facilities islands in contested areas, we probably wouldn’t be headed to a Cold War. Plenty of stories of China fisheries vessels blocking other countries from free access to what would be considered areas outside their EEZ.[quote=FlyerInHi] One-country, two systems is a British/Western concept that China agreed to with the return of Hong Kong. If you call BS on it, then Hong Kong is just like any other city in China. [/quote]
That’s right, HK is just another city in China now. Which is why Taiwan is calling BS on the One-country, two systems (China uses that term when referring to Taiwan sometimes).[quote=FlyerInHi] Recognize Taiwan’s independence? The US made a commitment to the One-China policy in 1971.
Sure, we could “refudiate” the One-China police but then we lose credibility and nobody would trust us ever again. BTW, Taiwan never declared independence and they have their own internal politics to work out as they still claim to represent all of China. [/quote]
It’s not an impossibilty – certainly isn’t going to happen soon. But let’s say the US and China get into a full Cold War where everything is segregated. Anything could be on the table at that point.
I’m Chinese, I do know their’s a lots of internal issues in Taiwan regarding independence. Lot of the reasons have to do with the economy, trade with China, and that the Taiwanese have huge investments in China. After all, Foxconn is Taiwanese.[quote=FlyerInHi] In summary, don’t bitch about China. Do better than China and show the world that our ideas result in more concrete material wealth that people can see and use. Talk is cheap.[/quote]
Agree with that. The US has some really shitty incoherent foreign policy for the past 3 decades. The real failure of leadership in both the US & China is that we are now heading towards a world that will be less open, more divergent, and segregated. Sure some countries are going to benefit from great power competition, but most will not. We’re at a point where travel & investment is beginning to restricted between US & China/Russia depending on what company/industry you are in. I don’t believe China is going to collapse or crash – the reality is that when the all the corporate and soverign debt becomes a problem in the next crisis, the US & China will be equally affected.Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]We only worry about China now because they are threatening our dominance.
From a competition standpoint, China is good for the world because they are providing an alternative to the American model. If American ideas were sure to create greater wealth, nobody would follow the Chinese model. The thing is that the world is not so certain that the American way is the best way.
[/quote]
I would certainly agree that China’s public development model has been successful so far. I question whether other countries would be able to replicate due to factors such as demographics, education, geography, etc. But it’s not China threatening dominance that we are worried about China. It a change in the status quo of international commons, a return to mercantilism/state competition, and impact to democracy/personal rights.[quote=FlyerInHi]
for example transport authorities around the country. Imagine Caltrans as a massive construction company that can innovate and bid for jobs all over the world. Would we not be better off?
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The problem with SOEs (US, China, wherever) is that the prevent private companies from doing the job more efficiently. Because they are backed by the state, they can get favorable financial terms, which can cause distortions in the funding market (you see that in China now when the SOEs are too big relative to the private market). We accept the existence of SOE where it’s not easy for multiple private companies to compete – but we really would be better off if Amtrak had competition.
Outside the country is different – yes, countries can back certain businesses to work projects. The US does that too, just not companies like Caltrans. We have Bechtel and others that did that in the past – Or Boeing, Google, MSFT, Intel, etc now. The US economy has long moved away from large public works, while China’s economy is in this phase.Public transit in the US is often funded by via government and run like a government department. NYC’s system has been underfunded for 40+ years – it’ll take a long time to fix. But transit by itself is unable to pay for major capital projects without other sources of funds. You could wait for the government, but you could also follow the HK model
https://www.theatlantic.com/china/archive/2013/09/the-unique-genius-of-hong-kongs-public-transportation-system/279528/[quote=FlyerInHi] On trade, the USA is so hopelessly hooked on cheap products that even a 25% tariff will not affect the trade deficit which will keep on rising. Things we don’t buy from China, we will by from Vietnam. And Vietnam will turn around and buy Huawei and other Chinese products.[/quote]
I have no problem with that and understand probably won’t materially change the trade deficit. However, it’ll create a vast inefficiency to trade with China directly.
The problem I have with China is that they had a chance to just work with the existing global trade/commons system to increase economic benefit. But now we have to deal with the BS territorial ambitions in SE and East Asia. If you go back 10 years, we didn’t have the military buildup going on in Asia. There wasn’t even an aircraft carrier assigned to the Pacific for a while. Now we have every country in Asia increasing their military.Also all the crap that China does in HK, Australia, and here – but I guess we’ve been allowing that to happen in our society.
But what is China’s end goal here? Do they really want global great power competition?
We can make life a lot more difficult for China. We could also steal technology from China and hand it to our designated state champions. We can spend significant % of GDP on international development too. We could call BS on the one country, two systems and recognize Taiwan independence. Spheres of influence in Africa – that can happen too. But heh this time, I doubt the Belgians will go back to the Congo and Italy to Ethiopia 😉Participant[quote=FlyerInHi] But I agree with the author on one point. Why the trade war if China is already in crisis? They can’t possibly be a worthy competitor, can they?
On trade, Trump will lose…. China will agree to some reforms they already identified for themselves but delayed. China will agree to buy US agricultural commodities — Such an irony because, in free markets, commodities should be freely traded regardless of provenance. Government to government agreements are as anti-market as can be; George Will wrote an interesting article about that.[/quote]
Yeah, we ‘ll see how crappy a deal Trump negotiates. Though if it’s just buying commodities, why even bother doing a deal. There’s almost no realistic way for China to close the trade gap using state purchases.
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/B3-CZ055_Dshot_NS_20190124025436.pngBetter off to have the 25% tariff – why give money to your rival to arm their military against your own – it just doesn’t make any sense. The trade war is just a facade, as long as the technology and geopolitical issues exist, it’s really a partial cold war.
Free trade and free markets only work if no one is planning a major regional contingency against each other. Even then, there are almost no true free markets among the G7/G20.ParticipantSOEs are bad for China – they’re a very inefficient use of capital and resources. Other Chinese companies could do the work better.
0% growth – well maybe on this quarter, but at least there’s data behind it. http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/B3-CZ321_Dshot_NS_20190125032836.pngDidn’t say capital was fleeing China, just that more investment is looking at places other than China. Plenty of news from HK, Taiwan, etc, where companies are expanding or moving manufacturing out of China as quickly as they can.
Sri Lanka, they have debt @ 77% of GDP – it’s all ok until you currency drops and your debt is in another currency.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asia/sri-lanka-struggles-to-repay-record-foreign-debt–pm-11107460
Their PM says they have problems paying.
Will China be ok – sure. But India is unhappy with what’s going on. Just proves that there will be competing spheres of influence in Sri Lanka too (Colombo vs Trincomalee)
Hopefully with everyone playing around there, another civil war isn’t started again – it’s only been 10 years.ParticipantWell, China isn’t really going to collapse like some of the bears say, but there will be many people who will be negatively impacted by the changes in the next decade. I think a bigger issue for China is the demographic changes and the dominance of the SOE – which economically will be negative.
As for the US-China, some type of trade deal will get done. But as long as China continues with it’s technology vision (2025) and challenging the tradition status quo of open ocean and air commons, the US/Japan and allies will be in a semi-Cold War. Unless something materially changes, I suspect we’ll see the creation of parallel banking system, technologies, and sphere of influence.
China can keep dumping money in places where there’s no economic benefit – primarily geo-strategic, that’s their prerogative. But the a shift in capital (& manufacturing) to SE Asia and India instead of China will definitely impact China’s growth rate. It’ll start looking like US growth rates in the 90’s (3-4%). We’ll see if China can get past the middle income trap.**Based on what’s happening in Germany and Japan, the real growth rate in China is probably close to 0% at the moment. Orders all falling off a cliff in those countries.
ParticipantNo, not really. It happens quite often. It’s all dependent on future expectations. if there’s an inversion, people are expecting a decline in rates in the future.
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/B3-CN777_Dshot_NS_20181204033051.pngParticipantThere’s always this brand, lol.
“Notably, no two Molteni stoves will be alike, as each is built to suit the cooking style of its chef. Built to last a lifetime, or longer, the Molteni Range Cooker comes with as many options including different sizes, materials and colors. For instance, buyer have the option to choose an electric solid top, a gas solid top, hot cupboard, fryer, fry top, hot surface, induction, gas burner, and gas or electric static oven. ”
Looks like most models come with a cast-iron gas cooktop. Must be really efficient when cooking for long periods of time.
From what I hear, electric solid tops are pretty efficient. You just can’t do any stir fry on electric. You have to get one of those chinese gas burners – I think they are between 50k-200k BTUs.
In terms of cost though in SD, I think gas is cheaper.
Gas 1therm = 99976.1 BTU
Elec 1 kwh = 3412 BTU.
SDG&E rates (typical home)
Gas ~$1.36/term
Elec ~$0.242/kwh
For equivalent energy (29.3kWh = $7.09)Participant[quote=spdrun] Also, if you build SF-Fresno and LA-Bakersfield, you’re left with a gap of approximately 100 miles. May as well close this gap. [/quote]
Sure, eventually. After you build out all the rest first. You can plan for the right of way now, since you have to do that if you plan to build in 20 years.
[quote=spdrun] While we’re at it, time for Californians to overcome their cowardice and build two (or ten) new nuclear plants to replace San Onofre and Diablo Canyon. [/quote]
What… I was waiting for my Mr Fusion to solve all the problems.
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