[Myriad]

Allow each neighborhood to determine what’s an acceptable rate of STVR. Then allow owners to participate in a lottery system to obtain a license with a new lottery every year.

Or allow a neighborhood the option to designate certain areas as available for STVR without restriction.

[Myriad]

It’s an interesting thesis. I might be supportive of this if changes were planned properly – for safety, transport, infrastructure, etc. Basically simcity – the heck of out it.

It’s a better plan than the current High Speed Rail plan.
If you could just build the HSR without worrying about EIR or eminent domain, the entire SF-SD segment could be done in about 10 years.

Housing and transport would be a lot better in CA if you could build high density housing high rises near mass transit.

[Myriad]

Well for me, I don’t care whether short term or long term lessors are a nuisance. I merely indicate that by purchasing a property in SD (after any zoning is in place), a buyer has given up rights by choice for the city to enforce it’s municipal code. In this particular case, we are talking about short term rentals – but why limit the discussion there. By your line of thinking, anyone should be able to build anything anywhere. I could just build a 30 story apartment complex next to a cottage home. A buyer could have just bought in Houston where there is no zoning.

If they want to change it, then get a campaign to change the municipal code or sue the city and have the Supreme Court determine if the 5th Amendment or 14th Amendment is more important.
Technically the Constitution 5th Amendment doesn’t rule on acceptable use of the property, just that government cant take property without compensation.

Personally I’m not for/against because I see arguments both ways – haven’t done the tradeoff analysis.
But, I think the city is unfairly punishing owners that followed the city regulations to operate a short term rental.

[Myriad]

[quote=FlyerInHi]We will see…. but don’t think China will blink. Out of adversity, they will accelerate Made in China 2025 and move up the value added chain. China is happy to cede market share to countries such as Vietnam while that sell infrastructure projects in Belt and Road. In fact Chinese companies are moving clothing production to Ethiopia.

Our companies will lose access to the growing Chinese market while Europeans will profit. We forget that the Chinese market is not just as important as our own, more so for luxury brands. [/quote]

The real issue here is the execution of the trade fight against China and the lack of a strategic plan. Should have united the world against China first.
China is the pivotal challenge for the US at every level for the next 50 years (diplomatically, economically, militarily, geo-politically, etc)
The trade battle and the China 2025 is only a small part of what will be a pseudo Cold War. China is re-aligning Pakistan as an ally while we are re-aligning with India.

We have these stupid rules now like can’t say Taipei is in Taiwan when you book a flight. Next thing you know, they’ll be trying to cut off Taiwan and Japan economically to force them into China’s sphere of influence.

[Myriad]

I’m not sure that’s really a valid argument. Lots of things are not explicitly identified in the Constitution – especially when you get to the local level detail of managing a city or town. There’s nothing about delegating power to a city council or a county recording office.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoning_in_the_United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Village_of_Euclid_v._Ambler_Realty_Co.
“In short the court ruled that zoning ordinances, regulations and laws must find their justification in some aspect of police power and asserted for the public welfare.”
So derived local power from the 14th amendment.

My take is that outside of a few areas of the city, there is pretty minimal impact. It will be interesting to see Mission Beach in a few years.

I’m only surprised that the STVR that properly registered with the city were not grandfathered in. All the others that didn’t follow the rules or didn’t bother to find out, they were essentially illegally running a business.
By buying a property and registering at the county recorder’s, a buyer is acquiescing to the right of the city’s municipal code which includes the zoning rules. Otherwise, they should have taken a court case to argue before buying – though unlikely to succeed due to stare decisis.

[Myriad]

Is there really 40k units for short term rent in SD? What’s the reference for that?
The MB change seems to be pretty drastic.
I’m sort of conflicted – I’m a generally a supporter of the free market, but out of town/foreign investors are really driving up prices globally which prevent residents from being able to buy homes. It’s not nearly as bad here in SD vs some places like Vancouver.

One of the complaints is that owners won’t be able to rent out – which is just false. They still do long term rentals.

Hopefully the city also allows for more hotels and public transit also.

[Myriad]

wow… wasn’t expecting the rules to be tightened so much.
Even Mission Bay is covered – wondering what it would look like as an actual community vs bunch of rentals

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/local/Short-Term-Vacation-Rental-Two-Proposals-San-Diego-City-Council-Meetin-488278091.html

[Myriad]

I don’t see why homes in the sub $1.25M would decline. In fact, I would see those homes hold value vs higher priced homes since any loan at $750k or below still qualify for mortgage deduction. Unless the home price to rent goes a lot higher, or the central banks pull all the money they added to the system out at once, I see SD home prices staying at these prices for a while, if not increasing.

[Myriad]

I’m not sure why Trump made a decision before CFIUS. CFIUS would likely have blocked the merger anyways.

But from a geo-strategic perspective, it’s not a surprise to see key industries being impacted due to the peer competition with China.

[Myriad]

I’m not sure why Trump made a decision before CFIUS. CFIUS would likely have blocked the merger anyways.

But from a geo-strategic perspective, it’s not a surprise to see key industries being impacted due to the peer competition with China.

[Myriad]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Wow looks like the Trump admistration is really worried about China overtaking the US and leading in 5G. See the nationalized 5G network they proposed before.
[/quote]

I’m not sure it’s the “Trump administration” as much as the overall defense community. Whether Trump wants to acknowledge it or not, many other people in government recognize there is a new cold war between US and China (to a lesser extent Russian, which is a long term declining power).

I forsee the QCOM/BCOM deal as effectively dead for the numerous reasons stated in CFIUS letter.

[Myriad]

Just curious, because that’s the first I heard of proration of Section 121. Very few financial planners/accountants seem to mention this rule, so would like some confirmation from the community.

[Myriad]

The problem of mass transit in CA is that our low density and distance increase the cost considerably. Neighborhoods prevent building high rises and other high density developments.
Then our transit tries to self-fund which is difficult if the intent is to keep prices low.
For example, UTC could do really well if a transit hub was clustered around a set of 20-50 story high rises with commercial, residential (affordable/mid/high end), retail, restaurants. But it requires a mentality set change in people choosing to live in apts vs houses. But if you can’t build anything and in enough quantity, the cost for space (housing/class A office space) becomes too expensive to do much.
Just came back from Hong Kong where a local told me that with a population of 7 million, the MTR transit company has 5+ million ride journeys/day. Basically, few people try to drive to work because it’s too costly (time & money).

[Myriad]

I think the issue is that you’re looking at this in absolute terms while the general investing world works in relative terms.
2009 was the best time to get into markets and housing (S&P in Mar 2009 was 697) – it was just a matter of having the mental fortitude to make the decision. (Not to say I did what I should, but I guess it was good enough not to sell). If you looked at solid companies in 2011/2012 after the worst part, most of them were providing dividends in excess of 4% compared to 0% in short term bonds. That’s a pretty good bet.

After the whole crisis in 2010 or so, what turned out was that yes the US has lots of issues (debt, unemployment, trade deficit, etc), but the US was the best of the worst. Europe and Japan were much worse and the only reason China didn’t collapse was they spent 25% of GDP on stimulus.

Will we have recessions – yes, will the market fall 20% in the future – yes. But the market is still one of the better places to invest. If you compare to bonds – which drop when interests rates go up. Investment properties are still ok if you can cash flow them, but those are hard to find in SD.

[Myriad]

What’s going to drive the system to the breaking point is in order:
1. Medicare/Medicaid
2. SS
3. Interest Costs
4. Defense.
But if you look at the projections, even if discretionary spending is stable, we have a huge problem. Defense is something like 50% of discretionary, but more than 50% of the defense spending is for manpower since US labor is expensive.

http://www.pgpf.org/sites/default/files/0174_SS_major_health_climb-full.gif

It’s hard to imagine a scenario that will maintain the debt at relative GDP level (no increase in debt) without cuts and increased taxes.

[Author]

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