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Myriad
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]
China converted the debt to equity.. They are running the port which still services the Sri Lankan economy. [/quote]After reading this, yes, China started with a smart strategy for buying influence. However, over time, they’re going to run into issues with all the debt financing and blowback from local population (maybe not in the next 10 years, but eventually). Also, the also are causing the Indians to look at tighter alliances with US/Australia.
I also agree the US subsides many things, just not in a systematic way like China. Part of the assumed outcome of China entering the WTO was that they would open their economy and move towards a more western model of global trade. Now that they are not, actually they have turned more protectionist and closed than in the past 10 years, coupled with the negative geo-political implications (Tawian, NK, South China Sea, A2AD weapons, etc), the US needs to change the what & how we subsidize. China is not moving off their 2025 plan to increase technology independence. Essentially move to an economic Cold War where development, technology & education, economic growth, and trade are the main peer competitions.
This one’s about blocking IMF bailout of Pakistan due to Chinese debt.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-seeks-to-avoid-a-pakistan-bailout-that-would-repay-china-1533056638?mod=searchresults&page=1&pos=3China knows that they have a few decades before demographics becomes a huge problem for them.
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2016/07/23/vanishing-workershttps://www.economist.com/sites/default/files/imagecache/640-width/images/print-edition/20160723_FNC133_0.png
By 2050, they could have an dependency ratio as bad as Japan.August 2, 2018 at 12:48 PM in reply to: What to do with my money, until, when, or if real estate corrects?? #810554ParticipantI guess it depends on your current age and income. If you’re in the 25% tax bracket or higher, figuring out how to reduce your taxable investments is important.
If your company supports it, look into after tax 401k. My last company did – I only put in 25% – wish I had maxed it out as my current company does not. Now I only have the backdoor Roth option.You could pay off your mortgage since there is pretty much no tax benefit now with the new tax law, but your rates are pretty low. Probably better off to invest.
One of the problems of real estate investing in CA is the high prices and low cap rates, not to mention the rental landlord rules. Personally, I think places outside of CA provide better cash flow, but CA does usually have better long term appreciation – just might have to wait a while for the next up cycle.
I’m also invested in Realtyshares, which does partial ownership of real estate (8-16% returns), but you have to be an accredited investor. It’s a nice balance to actually being the landlord and having property to manage – and not having to put 25% down for investment property.August 2, 2018 at 12:31 PM in reply to: What to do with my money, until, when, or if real estate corrects?? #810555Participantdup
August 1, 2018 at 12:32 PM in reply to: CA Landlords. What do you plan to do if the rent control initiative passes in November? #810543Participantwell, it should almost be like getting a home loan. Assets, income, history.
So as a landlord, it’s not just total income, it’s quality of income and history of on-time payment. There’s also more paperwork to do, at least in the past – not sure what the city is doing to reduce that.August 1, 2018 at 12:32 PM in reply to: CA Landlords. What do you plan to do if the rent control initiative passes in November? #810544Participantwell, it should almost be like getting a home loan. Assets, income, history.
So as a landlord, it’s not just total income, it’s quality of income and history of on-time payment. There’s also more paperwork to do, at least in the past – not sure what the city is doing to reduce that.July 31, 2018 at 9:58 PM in reply to: CA Landlords. What do you plan to do if the rent control initiative passes in November? #810539ParticipantWow… city council just made refusing to consider renting to Section 8 illegal.
https://fox5sandiego.com/2018/07/31/city-considers-measure-to-prevent-housing-discrimination/ParticipantThat’s why Vietnam and India are moving to improve relations with the US. South Korean policy will be split as long as NK is separate and US forces are still in SK. I don’t believe the current negotiation will result in NK removing all nukes and leading to a re-unification.
The US Taiwan policy has always been ambiguous – I think the thinking always has been status quo and defer the problem until later.
Yes, the Japanese never really apologized to Asia for WWII – not sure what you mean about Germany and US since the US had the Marshall plan and defended W Germany and W. Berlin. We still have many military forces and facilities in Germany today. Hard to imagine any way Japan would have in the past and will align with China – there’s too much historical animosity between the cultures for now. If anything, Japan knows its future is tied to the US and will align even more to the US position – it gives them better options as a counterbalance to China.What’s unknown is how demographics will play into the geo-politics. Japan is the worst in this area, China has a huge problem in 20 years, the US looks the best of the 3. Geo-politically though, the world looks headed to more conflict between larger powers then less – but the past few decades have been relatively the most peaceful in human history.
Thanks for an interesting, non-politicized, reasoned discussion, BTW
ParticipantDefinitely agree the Chinese infrastructure model is better than what the US has been doing. The US built a psuedo empire with the military security assistance and access to US markets. China is now doing it with infrastructure and debt – akin to the British Empire
I somewhat disagree about the debt. Yes, the Chinese can build faster using their own labor but at the expense that the benefit doesn’t go to workers in those countries. Also, we don’t know how much corruption and kickbacks there are as well as funds going to offshore tax havens vs how much actually goes to the country. It’s a problem for western development too, but inherently, the Chinese are more opaque and there’s definitely more corruption – just hard to quantify.
Also, the infrastructure is very expensive relative to the GDP of those countries and will not be economically sustainable – essentially, the Chinese will economically own those countries and have strong political influence.The issue I have is that, at the moment, China’s expansion is benign (except for the South China Sea). However, as with any expanding empire that feels relatively increasing strength, they will eventually challenge the US geo-politically. The question is when this happens, will China block other countries’s access (economic, trade, etc) to South and East Asia. It’s not entirely unfeasible that at some point in the future, China has military ports in Africa, Sri Lanka, South East Asia, etc), and they can economically strangle Japan for whatever reason or force Taiwan to accept unification (and the US would have little ability to block this at the detriment to US global influence.)
At the same time, I feel like China is making similar mistakes to the Europeans for empire expansion in the 19th century. There will be a backlash by the larger population that doesn’t feel (or perceived) like they are getting economic benefits or resent Chinese control.The US has made lots of mistakes in the post WW-II era, but has not generally pursued such a policy (there are exceptions like Iran, NK). The best situation we can hope is that the US learns the good aspects of Chinese geopolitics (economic, non-intervention), and the Chinese learn the good parts of the US (anti-corruption, sustainable development).
Otherwise, we are headed for another 50+ year cold war.ParticipantThat’s not entirely accurate. They are loading up B&R countries with huge debt. When the US did it with the Marshall plan, it was a grant.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/more-of-africa-finds-itself-in-chinas-debt-1532549741The Chinese can get it done quickly, because they ignore all local opposition. When they do run into opposition, then they have no experience dealing with it.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-global-building-spree-runs-into-trouble-in-pakistan-1532280460I agree that US policy has been poor, especially with overthrowing governments. China seems to be doing what the British Empire did in teh 17-19th centuries. I think both policies are doomed to failure. Hopefully the US will re-think how it runs foreign policy now that there is real peer competition.
At least now, the US is getting more serious about responding. Investment along with the military realignment of Pacific Command to Indo-Pacific Command.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-30/u-s-led-infrastructure-fund-to-counter-china-in-indo-pacificParticipant[quote=spdrun]Considering the US three letter agencies’ penchant for spying and meddling in the world, shouldn’t you also be wary of US products?[/quote]
I’m not worried about the US government turning off electricity or water, unless we’re in a civil war. China and Russia on the other hand…
ParticipantDon’t know, maybe we’ll see some grand strategy from Trump. Can’t imagine any company that wants to do business with the US government would buy from ZTE.
At this point, if you’re a public or private company with any critical infrastructure, should be wary of Chinese content or equipment. Australia, UK, and Canada are looking much more deeply into Hwawei now.
Defense has been looking at this for a while at the box level, but more recently they are getting serious at board level components and chips.ParticipantAfter looking at some 1800-2200 sq ft townhomes in Del Sur that are $700k and $4-6k in mello roos, and $400 in HOA, those prices in HGV look great.
But as other posters mentioned, HGV is tough commute to UTC. At least with DT, you can take the express bus.ParticipantIt’s better than the existing plan and more feasible than getting rid of zoning.
ParticipantIt’s better than the existing plan and more feasible than getting rid of zoning.
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