[Myriad]

[img_assist|nid=26684|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=100|height=79]

At the moment, no. The market doesn’t see deficit spending as impacting long term interest rates. So it’s unlikely deficit spending will cause a recession.

But, it may be a problem once we’re in a recession or in the post-recession phase. But, if you look at Japan, high debt hasn’t been a problem for borrowing rates yet they are at 250% of GDP.
http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/B3-BM176_Dshot_NS_20180821014327.png

[Myriad]

I think the recession will occur because of normal rise of interest rates and over investment in certain areas.
The corporate and commercial RE looks like they have higher than average debt than prior to previous recessions. A good proportion of commercial RE loans are interest only and are 5/7 years, so when they refinance, the higher rates will impact the values and $ amount that can borrowed.

[Myriad]

Trump – Putin 2020

[Myriad]

[quote=saiine]Myriad,

Assuming I have a team on the ground / property management company. Why would I need to fly to the property?[/quote]

Well, it’s a matter of how much do you trust your property manager. I hear plenty of horror stories. Are they really spending the funds on maintenance? How are the tenants? Does the property meet city codes? Illegal activities? – what if the property manager is involved?

Stuff you would/can do by driving by a local property is not possible.

[Myriad]

With $50-80k, it’s better to invest in a REIT or some type of real estate crowdfunding. Less risk and don’t actually have to manage the property.
With out of state property, you will have to fly out there to manage and do due diligence, even if you have a property manager.

[Myriad]

Hey, I bet it’s the same guy that lied about how he got to a $1m.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anton-ivanov-millionaire-story-truth-210757837.html
Lives in SD.

But you need to have 25% down for the better rates for an investment property.
Not sure about KC, but even in Denver, $200k will get you an older 2bd/bth townhome in an ok area. Nothing like a 4-plex.

[Myriad]

Hmm, so wasn’t this site back in 2004/5 documenting the bubble. Along with bubbleinfo.com, calculatedriskblog, etc, etc.

[Myriad]

[quote=The-Shoveler] That said it has been predicted that all of SoCal will become one big Mega City 50 years from now.[/quote]

It will be called San Angeles – and all restaurants will be Taco Bells

[Myriad]

I’m not saying there’s not waste (there’s plenty of that in China too), but roads are way cheaper to build and maintain than rail (and the roads are already built). In CA, it’s usually more realistic to assume incremental changes that don’t require massive infrastructure changes. If you decide to build a greenfield new city in the central valley connected by HSR, then yeah, plan for high density core with mass transit.

An updated 2016 Reason Foundation study shows California spent about $420,000 per mile in 2013 compared with the national average spending of about $160,000 per mile in the same year.
https://www.politifact.com/california/statements/2017/nov/01/john-cox/does-california-spend-nearly-five-times-much-build/
I don’t understand why it costs $56M/mile to lay down 2 parallel pieces of metal…. it should be way cheaper.

[Myriad]

[quote=FlyerInHi] That’s why China is betting on mega cities. [/quote]

To be fair, I don’t think China planned megacities. The planned on urbanization because massive proportion of people lived in rural areas (basically 50-80 years behind the west). The habitable land area is much less (basically the eastern side). Megacities is what resulted – for many years they had a constantly moving migrant population of over 100M.

At the same time though, I don’t think the US transit problem will be fixed by slightly increasing overall density. Before that happens, we’ll likely have autonomous vehicles – which will likely change dramatically how suburbs and cities will interact -especially if people stop taking personal vehicles to work. It’s pretty hard to foresee what AV will do vs other types of transit.

[Myriad]

[quote=spdrun]Why look to the Chinese, Myriad? Look to the French — they managed to roll out HSR at 1/4 of the cost of what the US pays per mile.[/quote]
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/695111468024545450/pdf/892000BRI0Box3000china0transport09.pdf

“China HSR with a maximum speed of 350 km/h has a typical infrastructure unit cost of about US$ 17-21m, (RMB 100-125m) per km, with a high ratio of viaducts and tunnels. The cost of HSR construction in Europe, having design speed of 300 km/h or above is estimated to be of the order of US$25-39 m per km (see table 4 & 5). HSR construction cost (excluding land, rolling stock and interest during construction) is estimated to be as high as US$ 52m per km in California.”

I think the biggest problem of HSR in CA is not necessarily cost, distance, or speed. The biggest blocker to sustainable rail is the low population density and limited regional mass transit.
If you look at the Chinese cities connected in the article, those inland secondary cities are as big as SF or LA and probably have higher population density.
Take Nanjing (11.7M) , just NW of Shanghai (34M)
2600 people/mi2 and 9900-20k/mi2, respectively
Let’s look at SF and LA
SF 4.7M – 1341 people/mi2
LA 18.7M – 550 people/mi2 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greater_Los_Angeles)

So basically you have higher cost/mi of rail, with higher operating cost, over longer distances to service fewer people (total and by population density). It just doesn’t make sense. it’s only really useful to go from downtown to downtown – Anyone that’s been to LA know’s that it only services a tiny fractional of the metro area since there’s limited mass transit once you get there.

[Myriad]

Wasting $10s of Billons on HSR between LA and SF when what we really need is reliable regional commuter transit.
SF-Sacremento/Fresno; LA to Palmdale/LV/SD.
The Chinese model would have built that, would have been done in 5 years. I do admire their efficiency, just not the rampant corruption, exploitation of rural residents, ignoring all local considerations, and not caring about economic sustainability.

[Myriad]

I think this is a multi-decade cycle of de-globalization. Borders and major power competition is back.

Not sure the point of piece meal tariffs. Just tariff everything from China and get it over with. The politicians are just dancing around the issue that a national strategic policy to challenge China is needed (economic, education, investment, military, diplomatic, etc)

[Myriad]

So you have to find out what type of zone you have, which can be done at the link below.
https://www.sandiego.gov/development-services/zoning/zoninggridmap

Once you find that, (e.g. RS-1-14) look at the document below which defines the rules for each zone type. (page 13.1.4.38)
http://docs.sandiego.gov/municode/MuniCodeChapter13/Ch13Art01Division04.pdf

[Myriad]

https://americanheritage.appfolio.com/listings/detail/9266dd55-fa08-4e9a-9b2a-214c9bd09ee0

https://app.tenantturner.com/qualify/10358-wateridge-cir?p=Company

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