[Monster]

Florida growth goes from wild to mild

Population experts point to economic factors that are cooling the Sunshine State’s appeal.

Babita Persaud
Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted December 22 2006

For those who gripe that Florida is growing too fast, you may have gotten your wish.

A U.S. census report out today shows that the boom for the Sunshine State has slowed, with Florida growing only 1.8 percent in 2006 after back-to-back years of adding more than 2 percent to the population.

LocalLinks

So, is this just a blip?

“No,” said Stefan Rayer, research demographer at the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “It’s back to normal.”

In 2005, Florida was ranked No. 4 in the list of fast-growing states, just behind Nevada, Arizona and Idaho.

This year, Florida slips to No. 9.

William Frey, a demographer with The Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank, said economics is playing a role.

“Generally, people are moving where it is not so pricey,” he said.

And that is not Florida, he said.

Before, a few states were the select hot spots. Now, people are spreading around, Frey said. “They are going where housing is affordable.”

Florida’s existing-home median price — half the homes sold for more, half for less — tops $240,000. Costs are higher in markets such as Orlando — at a quarter-million dollars — and South Florida, where many homes are fetching $350,000.

On top of a mortgage, for those who do buy, insurance costs have skyrocketed. Some premiums are up by more than 25 percent since the 2004 hurricane season.

The impact is starting to ripple throughout the state: Home sales are down more than 20 percent, school enrollment shrank in the fall student count, and state government is preparing for a revenue drop based on population projections.

“Florida is still strong economically, and that will continue,” said Sean Snaith, director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness. “But the momentum has slowed.”

Across other parts of the South, the 2005 tropical-storm season was a factor.

Before Hurricane Katrina, Louisiana’s population was on the rise, growing by 12,000 to 4.5 million by mid-2005.

By the July 2006 count, Louisiana had lost nearly 220,000 residents, about 5 percent.

Where did they go?

Rayer said Katrina’s effect on Florida was probably “marginal,” but “Georgia, North Carolina, Texas — in those states, Katrina is playing a role.” All grew by more than2 percent.

Census issues state population figures annually in December. The period of collecting the 2006 data runs from July 1, 2005, to July 1, 2006.

Other findings in the new census report:

Arizona was the nation’s fastest-growing state at a 3.6 percent change, breaking Nevada’s grip on the title.

LocalLinks

The Northeast region grew by only 62,000 people. In contrast, the South grew by 1.5 million and the West by 1 million. The Midwest added 281,000 people.

The South now accounts for 36 percent of the nation’s total population, with the West comprising 23 percent, the Midwest 22 percent and the Northeast 18 percent.

Florida remains the fourth-most populous state, with 18.1 million people. More than 321,000 moved here in 2006, off from the 401,000 who showed up between 2005 and 2005.

From the perspective of Priya Rajan, a Central Florida Realtor, “It is not bubbling as much as last year.”

The Orlando Regional Realtor Association projects that 2006 sales will finish above 2004 but below 2005’s red-hot tally of 31,230.

So does that mean less traffic jams for Orlando?

Think again.

Orlando’s rate of growth has hovered around 3 percent in the past few years, Rayer said.

“Of the large metropolitan areas in Florida, Orlando remains the fastest growing,” Rayer said.

[Monster]

Several developers are trying to get 275-300 sq. foot for new construction in south Florida. These properties are located in downtown Delray Beach and in good sections of Boca Raton. I feel lucky selling my 70’s home at 464 sq./ ft. in April 2006

[Monster]

Take it from a person who knows both coasts of Florida and never buy land on the west coast of Florida. One fact will explain it all:

The depth of the Gulf of Mexico from the shoreline to the where the depth goes to 100 feet deep. New Orleans could happen from Naples, Florida to the border of Mexico in TX. It all comes down to water displacement and wind. Deep water does not react the same as shallow water.

[Monster]

I did not even bother to find the actual listing. If I drive by, I’ll send it out.

I gave this comparison of SoFLA versus SOCal because both areas are similar. The economies and wealth factor are close. No comparison regarding waves though for those that surf.

It seems the bid to offer ratio is huge. Bidders might be really careful out there. You could get smacked and leave 200 grand on the table.

[Monster]

Top Ramen is an instant soup for anyone with a sodium deficiency or an adjustable mortgage that just adjusted last month. Goes well with mac and cheese and pb&j’s. Toast the bread and that make the evening more special.

[Monster]

Earthquake probability versus yearly hurricane prepareness? I’ll take the earthquake risk. Will global warming increase earthquake risk? Heat does cause more quakes, right? I don’t remember winter quakes. 15 hurricanes every summer or at least a threat every summer is a pain in the a.. Plus its very stressful to continued press regarding death and destruction.

[Monster]

I saw the same article in the Reader. FYI…Condo in Boca was listed at 550,000 last weekend and if you bought that day, it was yours for 400,000. Brand new, you pick the colors. tile, granite etc etc. No buyers took the bait. WOW! Alot more pain in south fl compared to SD county. Your lucky out here. No hurricane bs to live with or uncontrolled insurance costs. 1000% increase in premiums, cancelled policies with no one looking to pick up your 2mm beach house..Yikes!!!! Adjustable mortgages, whatever? Adjustable insurance premiums are killing the fixed expense crowds. People are praying for a no hurricane season. Better odds in Vegas.

[Monster]

http://www.bls.gov/bls/fesacp1120905.pdf

http://www.bls.gov is the oficial cpi website with all the numbers you ever wanted to study. Better grab a bottle of red for this reading.

Here is all the info. you need regarding the rental index in the CPI number. Yes, the Fed. should of tightened. Chasing inflation is harder than crushing it.

[Monster]

Powayseller, thanks for the support. Truth hurts and I could be wrong, but if we all had houses here and sold them 1 yr. ago and had bundles of cash and moved to Hilton Head, I would think the real estate market would jump there. We could afford 1mm homes there. Is SD going to see a same type of influx from the same scenario from outside of CA? Where do all the new buyers come from?

[Monster]

Deadzone, take your logic and think eastern SD county. East of the 15 freeway, east of the 805?

Homes near the center of economic activity will stay stronger, not including condos. If you have to commute 25 miles west to your job, then those houses will tumble. Commuting costs going forward will make suburbs obsolete.

If you live in the hinterlands, take up farming to feed your neighbors that will not be able to cover the cost of commuting. By the way, I think oil could go to $125 a barrel. Suburbism without mass transit is the first to fall.

[Monster]

bob007, interesting ranking. I still put SD up front, the military and govt. are the biggest employers in SD county. Are these employees the new buyers in SD? Mover uppers? Don’t think so.

Econ 101..demand and supply and disposable income wins here. SD has supply, demand? Big incomes?

I love this area, but this is only for conversation. I’m not a basher, just thinking out loud.

[Monster]

So, who are the new buyers? Heck, at least Miami with all those unsold condos have the south and central American buyers and European buyers. Maybe they can sell them eventually. SD is alot different. Where are the economic power players coming to buy all these 1mm houses? Retirees? Don’t think so. Relocation buyers from the east that sold their homes at top of the market 6 months ago?

Can the new Miramar airport workers support these homes in CV? Don’t think so? Will more corporations move to SD with better air transportation?

Here is a better thought, have that huge seaport built( not sure if you heard about this idea) on the east coast of Baja and have a rail line come into SD and then corporations will build distribution plants here. Being a surfer, this project will not be good for the surfing in particular parts of Baja, but we cannot control Mexico politics. Surfrider is great, but……

Maybe I need to find what new jobs have been created in SD county this year and average salaries that are paid.

[Monster]

Wow, do we have something in common. I sold my home on the east coast and now have 7 figures in the bank in cash. Sounds good? No way, I’m now accused of betraying the family selling this house. By the way, she did all the paerwork to make sure the deal not fall thru. Damned if you do,and damned if you dont. We didn’t even love the house.

There is alot more to this story, but now we rent and we are homeless with cash. I’m an a-hole for selling in a depreciating market. Also, hurricanes and property insurance are killing the coastal east coast market. People in CA have 1/2 the problems the east coast has.

CAT 3-5’s will kill the market over there. doesn’t matter where it lands. Oh yeah, we hated the hurricane prep. work and now it seems to be ok. Flip flop, flip flop!!!

I feel your pain. Homeless in LaJolla. I’m such a jerk.

[Monster]

Thanks for the clarification. Sounds like a long term problem raising its ugly head again. Has it been going on for years?

[Monster]

Which ones are the units with severe mold problems and people are drawing up lawsuits? These units are located north of Via de valle. Just wondering which ones?

[Author]

Posts