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MH
ParticipantWow… go to work for a bit and got many more responses than I would have expected. Thanks to all; collectively you seem about as split as I am internally.
Surely I’ll leave some out, but here’s more to the story since it seems germane. House is just outside Rancho del Oro; near the park, big lot (by Cal standards at least), Vista schools, no HOA or MR. Pretty well appointed but have not done a major overhaul. We refi’d once several years ago, took out just enough to pay off the original down so we owe just under 200. Have depreciated it as a rental and have not lived in it for 2 of the last 5 so expect to pay capital gains on a bunch of it. All told, my rough guess is that I’d walk with something approaching 200k at closing.
Don’t “need” the money now; we locked into a 3 year lease on a great place in Tampa (talk about a diving RE market!). Thought is to sell now presuming prices are, at best, staying level and invest the proceeds conservatively until we are ready to buy again… presumably that’d be in Cal when we return but I can’t guarantee that will be my next duty station (they call them “orders” vice “invitations” for a reason!).
Have had good luck with renters and don’t think that’d change. On the advice of my prop mgr we’ve kept the rent reasonable so we’ve always had a good crop to pick from when its been empty. But, at some point we’ll need to sell if I want to buy that one last long-term home in SoCal; the one I’d anticipate buying and then “retire” (i.e. get a civilian job) in place.
Okay.. Again, THANKS to all for the considered advice. Sure is a lot to think about!
ParticipantTake it!
Had to laugh reading the posts above… Paraphrased: “I drove through there once and didn’t like it.”
I was raised in SoCal and lived in SD with the ‘Corps before transferring to Beaufort where we stayed for over 5 years (by choice). Best comment about SC I ever heard: “You might cry when you get here, but you’ll cry harder when you leave.”
Yep, the south is different and SC is as “Southern” as they come. Sure, some still believe the halftime score is North 1, South 0. But, don’t think you’ll find a more genuine, more pleasant, or more caring place to live in the U.S.
Its NOT San Diego. Directions don’t usually involve freeway numbers but rather use landmarks such as “the new WalMart” or “the old Piggly Wiggly.” There is less zoning so the “issues” of class / race / education etc are more evident (and often combined) rather than hidden in poor neighborhoods and crappy apartments.
But, w/in 30 minutes of moving in to our house 3 different neighbors came by with food and offers to help. Our kids made friends with kids of all kinds of backgrounds and ethnicities. I’ve lived all over the US in 15+ years with the Marines and NEVER lived anywhere as welcoming as SC.
My wife and I both have family in SoCal and we still own a house in Oceanside – we’ll eventually settle back in Ca. But, all else being equal, I’d absolutely move back there to stay.
One last bit of “gouge” about the SC… “Ya’ll” is actually singular, “All Ya’ll” is plural.
ParticipantI am NOT an expert by any stretch – the following is more of a question than a statement:
While not a huge fan of gold for some of the reasons cited above – it is, after all, ultimately just one particularly fortunate box on the table of elements – doesn’t it at least have the advantage of being, by convention at least – universally accepted? Specifically, it doesn’t care about trade imbalances, fed rates, gov’ts inflating their way out of debt, etc. So, if one believes the dollar will ultimately need to fall in value, won’t gold provide as good of a hedge as any? While other currencies might be propped up by central bank gold (et al) should remain a universal currency, no?
Thoughts? I’m struggling to find ways to survive what I think will be an ugly fiscal period ahead (btw, looks like buying a put on FED was a good move!) and wonder if the small amount I’ve got in PMs is justified.
ParticipantAs a Marine, I’d disagree. My opinions WRT the SecDef or POTUS policy aside, I just don’t think a paper that is generally designed for a military audience ought to be picking sides.
Our roles and responsibilities are well spelled out in Title 10 (et al)… we work for the Executive branch including those political appointees properly appointed. In our ranks we have Republicans, Democrats, and a wide variety of Independents; our place is NOT to advocate for any party or group.
That is not in any way to imply I can’t have my own opinions or spend my off-duty hours in the same manner as my civilian counterparts – but it does mean I can’t represent both a political point of view AND my service simultaneously…. I can’t wear my uniform to a political rally, e.g. Along those lines, it would be inappropriate for the Marine Corps Association (et al) to vocally advocate for any political party regardless of whether those feelings are (or are not) privately shared by service members.
What’s next? Perhaps the Marine Times should call for the resignation of Gen Pace too? And Gen Hagee, while we’re at it? Might as well take on the VP too.
Again, please don’t take this to imply that I’d want to muzzle the media – but just think that publications with somewhat special status w/in the DoD (the Marine Times, e.g., can be found at the check-out counter of every MWR activity and most ready rooms / common areas) need to stay apolitical to preserve that appearance of impartiality.
ParticipantJust a comment – more on concept that specifics…
I wonder if we’re not too hung up on “median” as a measure. I’m as bearish as the rest, but do think there is some increase in the median attributable to the newer / larger houses, no? One of the few reasonable things I heard the REIC say over the last few years is that the public is willing to pay more (both absolutely and as a percentage of income) for a house than we did a decade or two ago as the modern home is much more of a centerpiece to our lives than it used to be – w/ entertainment centers, computers, PlayStations, etc. Certainly not to the exagerated levels we’ve seen, but probably worth some thought.
In short, while I certainly am convinced prices are headed far south, I think something more than 4% might be reasonable merely due to comparing apples and oranges…
ParticipantThanks… just from this thread I learned to look up their API scores – that’s been a big help.
Any thoughts on what the downturn will do to the schools? I.e., RP seems to have a TON more listings than other areas (at least in the limits I gave Zip); is the area (and its schools) going to suffer more / less than others when tax revenues decrease?
ParticipantI’d add a bit to the wait and see crowd – particularly if you don’t have kids yet and may still elect (need) to move somewhere else eventually.
None of us “know” where prices are headed and its not entirely impossible that we pessimists are overstating the case… maybe. But, its not like a few years ago when every month might have cost you 1% or more. Wait – if you miss the “bottom” its not like you’ll be completely out of the market. On the other hand, if you buy on the way down you’re largely screwed.
ParticipantDeadzone… think you make my point for me. Do you really think its simply a matter of blaming the deficit on the military effort? C’mon – don’t let your politics cloud your vision.
Certainly there is a huge cost there and I’m hardly suggesting that the the GWOT and methods employed to fight it have been beyond reproach, but our fiscal problems are much more complex.
The seeds were laid long ago; simply look at the amount of manditory spending in the budget. Used to be ~30% but is now about 2/3 and growing (and wait until ’08 when the boomers start retiring!). THAT is where the money is going – we can certainly debate whether that is good or bad or in between, but the DoD is not the primary cause of the debt.
On the income side – we got a reprieve under Clinton for a number of reasons – not the least of which was an artifically inflated tax stream. Again, this is not an indictment of him – but to imply that “all was good under Clinton” is far to simplistic.
We’re not going to get anywhere by letting this dissolve into a “we” vs. “they” debate that picks absolutes.
ParticipantOh… and I agree this does belong in the OT forum but so does the Iraq dissertation, et al.
ParticipantPerhaps a bit overstated, but the following has haunted me for some time…
At about the time our original 13 states adopted their new constitution, in the year 1787, Alexander Tyler (a Scottish history professor at The University of Edinborough) had this to say about "The Fall of The Athenian Republic" some 2,000 years prior: "A democracy is always temporary in nature; it simply cannot exist as a permanent form of government. A democracy will continue to exist up until the time that voters discover that they can vote themselves generous gifts from the public treasury. From that moment on, the majority always votes for the candidates who promise the most benefits from the public treasury, with the result that every democracy will finally collapse due to loose fiscal policy, which is always followed by a dictatorship."
I am honestly starting to think you could win political office by promising massive spending to all and simultaneous tax cuts. The problem with democracies, I suppose, is that we ass/u/me some level of intelect, research, and untilitarianism from those who vote. I hate, e.g., the "get out the vote" campaigns – I have known and respected many who would cancel my vote and welcome their contribution. But, the idea that some 18 y/o who hasn't even bothered to read the ballot measure and has no job / income / property / or work ethic will go in and vote "just 'cause P Diddy said he should" bothers me.
One of the primary reasons I am so pessimistic (bearish) on the markets is I just think we've become too polarzied to operate efficiently. We are well behind our industrialized counterparts in education and other measures of our future potential but all we seem to be able to do is boil issues down to sound bites. There are, IMHO, very few "low hanging fruit" anymore – no easy solutions. Tax cuts DO spur the economy (the Laffer curve has been revalidated again under Bush); but lets also not pretend that the immediate beneficiaries don't really need the relief as much as others. Social Security… same mess. We're a society that values displays of wealth, instant gratification, and fosters a sense of entitlement. So, with "all politics being local" I just doubt we'll ever get to a point when we'd elect someone who would do what was best for the long term common good as opposed to those partisans who he/she hopes to carry their reelection campaign.
ParticipantUSMC “Bunny”… bet there’s a story behind that.
Yeah, I started out flying on the Left Coast too – back when we still had El Toro (lived on Tustin). Then we bought in OSide and I did the commute to Orange County – joy.
Thanks for the gouge on the commutes – not sure where I’ll be headed yet; one of the drawbacks of being at the Naval War College is you don’t have much negotiating power. But, very much expect to get back to SoCal in some capacity.
Worse case for the guys trying to unload is doing a PCS out and then returning – I imagine the BAH rates are going to drop and being “Grandfathered” at the old rates will matter (and its part of my rationale for coming back now).
At least we’ve got O’Side as a fall back plan… might be a good place to wait out the downturn and shop around; but don’t really want to do the commute to MCRD every day (I’m overdue for a B-Billet). Rancho P seems like a decent starting point – and I’ll keep an eye open for something on the coast as well…
SF!
ParticipantConcho… Hardly the next Commandant, but have done okay since the days long ago when I was but a wide-eyed recruit at MCRD. Agree about the cost; 800k is the max I’m looking at now in anticipation of those prices falling to a level where I can buy (maybe ~700k). Plus, we did okay in our prior houses, save regularly and live very modestly so I’ll be in a pretty good position if/when the time comes to buy a place to homestead.
For those rec’ing the coast; don’t you get a lot more for the $$$ inland? We’d like to get into 4 BRs (to have one-per and a guest/office) and have some yard as well – can you still do that on the coast? Plus – surprised to hear the 15 is that much worse than the 5; the handful of times I had to drive to the Naval Station from CPen to embark the 5 was a complete mess.
Kicksavedave – thanks for the link. I’d excluded all “N/A” lot sizes on my searches ‘cause I have some visceral objection to detached condos but can’t really justify same. Might just have to reconsider.
PerryChase – might certainly be a bit too soon to buy. We’ve still got a pretty decent place in O’Side and moving back in would reset my capital gains shelter. For that matter, we could always add on to it to make it work for a longer term and the Prop 13 advantage is not insignificant. But, very much want to give my kids the opportunity that I had – to stay in the same schools for their adolescent years. IOT do that, we’d much rather “move up” in the world.
Again, thanks to all for helping shape my focus… SF!
ParticipantThanks to both…
How can you tell if you’re in a Mello Ros area? Again, we weren’t in Oceanside – was that because the house was built prior to some specific year? And, what’s the rule of thumb for MR – I presume its large enough to be a consideration, no?
I’m encouraged by the RP second… sure seemed to fit the description but you just never know from Zip / Zillow what the neighborhood is really like…
ParticipantDoes anyone have accurate data on the amount (percentage) of mortgage debt outstanding? Certainly the 70% figure is troubling, but how many homes were in that bracket (of all available)? There are many folks like me, I think, who bought many years ago and are a long way from being upside down. If some of those refi’d (again, as I did) but didn’t take out any of the paper equity, then the resetting shouldn’t be much of a problem.
We have a lot of antecdotal evidence, but when I look at Zip’s website and bounce it off Zillow’s data – it seems that an awful lot of the homes for sale have a ton of space between what was last paid (and the tax assessment) and the asking price. Again, I know that some of those might have huge seconds or refi’s – but do we know that for sure?
I’m as bearish as the rest, but wonder if we’re projecting the foolish decisions of some against the entire population.
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