One chartist's opinion:
http://hipegg.blogspot.com/2006/09/lennar-collapsing.html
Disclosure: I own some LEN puts ($40 strike) that expire in Jan07.
Dent also has a new book: “The Next Great Bubble Boom”.
Two shorter works of his: “Demographic Trends in Real Estate” and “Bubble After Bubble in The Ongoing Bubble Boom”.
I think his argument can be summarized by stating that money will keep flowing from one bursting bubble into another sector, creating a new bubble, one after another, until eventually it all ends really badly.
Roubini on the other hand predicts a deep recession (caused by the RE bust) starting much sooner, in early 07.
Thoughts? Anyone have a working crystal ball? π