[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

One small detail that is easily missed, housing starts measured on the way down are not the same as those measured on the way up.

If you look at the square footage, expected sales price, etc. of starts being put on the books today, they are far lower in both areas as those at the peak. Thus, prices and sizes return to nominal levels, which actually support further declines in existing values, until evertything catches up to the new constructions.

This at least partially explains the lag seen between housing starts and prices. The starts you observe ‘at the bottom’ are seen as a baseline for where prices are eventually going, and if you consider that prices almost always over-correct at the bottom until they turn, it is easy to deduce that, price wise, we’re nowhere near a bottom.

[lonestar2000]

I assure you at least 50% of the folks in CA are unfit to be driving any vehicle.

Apparently, neither are they fit to endlessly link statistically useless YouTube videos of car crashes to prove a point.

[lonestar2000]

I assure you at least 50% of the folks in CA are unfit to be driving any vehicle.

Apparently, neither are they fit to endlessly link statistically useless YouTube videos of car crashes to prove a point.

[lonestar2000]

I assure you at least 50% of the folks in CA are unfit to be driving any vehicle.

Apparently, neither are they fit to endlessly link statistically useless YouTube videos of car crashes to prove a point.

[lonestar2000]

I assure you at least 50% of the folks in CA are unfit to be driving any vehicle.

Apparently, neither are they fit to endlessly link statistically useless YouTube videos of car crashes to prove a point.

[lonestar2000]

I assure you at least 50% of the folks in CA are unfit to be driving any vehicle.

Apparently, neither are they fit to endlessly link statistically useless YouTube videos of car crashes to prove a point.

[lonestar2000]

Housing bottoming out huh?
Then why is BenB scared sh*tless and why is WaMu’s Alt-A loan pool looking scarier by the day?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/wamus-suspect-mortgage-pool.html

There is a steady increase in REO supply on the market and they are the only homes selling, which are bringing down comps all over the place.

I just saw a local paper run a front page article which states that the price declines have started reaching ‘bullet proof markets’ such as Seattle and Chicago.

Meanwhile, brand new 1,600 sf homes near me have dropped by $100,000 in price over the past six months and still nobody is buying.

Banks are continuing to tighten credit standards, so the tiny pool of those actually looking to buy are shrinking even further:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/05/real_estate/bank_lending.ap/index.htm

We’re also rapidly approaching $200 for a barrel of oil ($5 per gallon):
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/news/economy/200_dollar_oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008050610

Oh yeah, housing is bottoming out all right. I must be stupid for thinking to the contrary.

[lonestar2000]

Housing bottoming out huh?
Then why is BenB scared sh*tless and why is WaMu’s Alt-A loan pool looking scarier by the day?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/wamus-suspect-mortgage-pool.html

There is a steady increase in REO supply on the market and they are the only homes selling, which are bringing down comps all over the place.

I just saw a local paper run a front page article which states that the price declines have started reaching ‘bullet proof markets’ such as Seattle and Chicago.

Meanwhile, brand new 1,600 sf homes near me have dropped by $100,000 in price over the past six months and still nobody is buying.

Banks are continuing to tighten credit standards, so the tiny pool of those actually looking to buy are shrinking even further:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/05/real_estate/bank_lending.ap/index.htm

We’re also rapidly approaching $200 for a barrel of oil ($5 per gallon):
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/news/economy/200_dollar_oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008050610

Oh yeah, housing is bottoming out all right. I must be stupid for thinking to the contrary.

[lonestar2000]

Housing bottoming out huh?
Then why is BenB scared sh*tless and why is WaMu’s Alt-A loan pool looking scarier by the day?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/wamus-suspect-mortgage-pool.html

There is a steady increase in REO supply on the market and they are the only homes selling, which are bringing down comps all over the place.

I just saw a local paper run a front page article which states that the price declines have started reaching ‘bullet proof markets’ such as Seattle and Chicago.

Meanwhile, brand new 1,600 sf homes near me have dropped by $100,000 in price over the past six months and still nobody is buying.

Banks are continuing to tighten credit standards, so the tiny pool of those actually looking to buy are shrinking even further:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/05/real_estate/bank_lending.ap/index.htm

We’re also rapidly approaching $200 for a barrel of oil ($5 per gallon):
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/news/economy/200_dollar_oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008050610

Oh yeah, housing is bottoming out all right. I must be stupid for thinking to the contrary.

[lonestar2000]

Housing bottoming out huh?
Then why is BenB scared sh*tless and why is WaMu’s Alt-A loan pool looking scarier by the day?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/wamus-suspect-mortgage-pool.html

There is a steady increase in REO supply on the market and they are the only homes selling, which are bringing down comps all over the place.

I just saw a local paper run a front page article which states that the price declines have started reaching ‘bullet proof markets’ such as Seattle and Chicago.

Meanwhile, brand new 1,600 sf homes near me have dropped by $100,000 in price over the past six months and still nobody is buying.

Banks are continuing to tighten credit standards, so the tiny pool of those actually looking to buy are shrinking even further:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/05/real_estate/bank_lending.ap/index.htm

We’re also rapidly approaching $200 for a barrel of oil ($5 per gallon):
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/news/economy/200_dollar_oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008050610

Oh yeah, housing is bottoming out all right. I must be stupid for thinking to the contrary.

[lonestar2000]

Housing bottoming out huh?
Then why is BenB scared sh*tless and why is WaMu’s Alt-A loan pool looking scarier by the day?

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2008/05/wamus-suspect-mortgage-pool.html

There is a steady increase in REO supply on the market and they are the only homes selling, which are bringing down comps all over the place.

I just saw a local paper run a front page article which states that the price declines have started reaching ‘bullet proof markets’ such as Seattle and Chicago.

Meanwhile, brand new 1,600 sf homes near me have dropped by $100,000 in price over the past six months and still nobody is buying.

Banks are continuing to tighten credit standards, so the tiny pool of those actually looking to buy are shrinking even further:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/05/real_estate/bank_lending.ap/index.htm

We’re also rapidly approaching $200 for a barrel of oil ($5 per gallon):
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/06/news/economy/200_dollar_oil.ap/index.htm?postversion=2008050610

Oh yeah, housing is bottoming out all right. I must be stupid for thinking to the contrary.

[Author]

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