Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
livinincali
ParticipantNobody wants to fix health care because it will be bad politically. You need to address the cost side of the equation. If you do you instantly create a recession or possibly worse a depression. Health care represents about 20% of GDP right now. If you cut in half you probably put 2 to 3 million people out of a job in the short term. It would be good in the long run as those people would find other jobs that were more productive but it wouldn’t be good in the short term. The problem is you face reelection in the short term. The one hope you might have from somebody like Trump is maybe he doesn’t really care about reelection and might do something politically bad in the short term to fix the long term.
ParticipantIf you raise rent enough to get a long term tenant to move you’re probably looking at 2 to 3 years before you break even at the higher rent value. It’s almost certain that you’re going to go at least a month without collecting rent and you’re also looking at some deferred maintenance costs (carpet, paint, old appliances, etc). Ideally you want the tenant to stay but pay a higher rent value. It’s really tough to say what too much is in that scenario. Certainly as you approach true market rent the tenants are more and more likely to look at what’s available. If they find something shiny and new for roughly the same price they might elect to leave.
Participant[quote=millennial][quote=FlyerInHi]
Educated young professionals are moving to big metros all over the world. One day we will be like Japan where prices in Tokyo at high but where the small towns are dying.[/quote]I agree. I think values have shifted and will continue to shift. People are having less kids because they are no longer a necessity or part of the norm. Most of my friends aren’t married yet and will probably start marrying and having kids in their late 30’s/early 40’s. In places like Japan and Korea its been the norm for kids to live with their parents until they get married since housing is so expensive.[/quote]
Yeah and that’s why this whole comfortable retirement for the masses belief is going to be a giant myth. If you depend on someone else’s kids to provide you resources in retirement you’re going to find that you’re pretty far down the list of their priorities. Some might be able to acquire enough assets to collect rent on but the masses won’t.
Participant[quote=The-Shoveler]Yep, kind of looks like the 2000 blow off a little,
But I think the main difference is the record amount of money sitting on the side lines.
Maybe the market is pricing in all that infrastructure spending.
Not saying it is going to happen but what if after 4 years the DOW is at 35K etc…?[/quote]
Why do people keep bringing on this money on the sidelines fallacy. If there’s 2 trillion dollars out in the economy somebody has to hold them at any given time on the sidelines. If that number goes up to 3 trillion then there’s 3 trillion on the sidelines. There’s record money on the sidelines because there’s record money in the economy. This isn’t a reason for the stock market to keep going up.
ParticipantInteresting enough a Silicon Valley CA Democract representative (Zoe Lofgren) has written up a bill to modify H1-B visas.
https://lofgren.house.gov/uploadedfiles/high_skilled_bill_text.pdf
ParticipantIt looked like commercial real estate was rolling over in 2015 but 2016 was a pretty good year for asking rent and vacancy rates. Sales prices have been relatively flat for the past 2 years or so though. Number of sales are down for San Diego. There was really strong growth in all categories from 2012 to 2015. In general cap rates are really low right now so there’s plenty of room for rent growth without much capital appreciation. The low cap rates are obviously interwoven with the low interest rates. Probably not a bad time to be an owner. Could be a bad time to become a new investor.
Participant[quote=zk]
You’re right, Ribbles. I shouldn’t have lumped you in with livinincali.
Livinincali, what about you? I guess you haven’t come right out and said (that I remember) that you’re a trump supporter. You’ve indicated some support for some of his ideas. You’ve agreed with him that global warming isn’t human-caused. Are you a trump supporter? Do you think he’ll do well? Any positive predictions?
Now that he’s won, are there any trump supporters out there? bg, you are clearly a big supporter. Any positive predictions?[/quote]
Wasn’t a Trump supporter. Voted for Gary Johnson not that he would have changed things that much either. I honestly don’t think who is US president can really effect that much change into today’s economy or policy. Maybe to some degree but not as much as people think. People that think things would be horrifically bad under Trump but extremely rosy under Hillary are delusional. Of course there’s no way for either side to prove they were right so why waste time arguing over religion.
The problem is that even if protectionist policies or major changes to the healthcare system would be good in the long term they will be economically damaging in the short term. Even if his policies were good it might be 10+ years to see the benefit of them and in that case someone else will likely get the credit.
As for global warming nobody really knows how much warming is due to man made warming due to the burning of fossil fuels. Obviously there are other factors such as the sun energy output and just earth’s overall ecosystem that is honestly too complex for us to understand. We can’t even predict local weather that well. We certainly don’t have a complete model for earth’s global climate and what percent of warming is caused by man. The earth has been far hotter and colder before man was even a species on this rock.
Even if you come to conclusion that man made global warming is real and fossil fuel consumption needs to be reduced by 50%, 80% or whatever are you prepared to live with the reduced standard of living that would entail. I don’t think most of the humans on the planet are ready to voluntarily do that. There isn’t a cheap reliable energy source other than nuclear technologies and nobody seems to want to go down that path either. I’m not saying we shouldn’t try to research better energy technologies, but putting some sort of artificial constraint on economic growth via carbon taxes or some other mechanism isn’t the right approach. Honestly most of us living in SoCal are the worst offenders on the planet when it comes to energy consumption and carbon output.
ParticipantI predict a fairly severe recession that would have happened no matter who was president. I also think he’ll likely be a one term president, but I thought the same thing about both major candidates.
Participant[quote=poorgradstudent]
A huge chunk of our taxes go to national defense, and there’s the biggest irony; a lot of people who want lower taxes want higher defense spending. The sequester actually was helpful in temporarily stemming ballooning defense spending, but unfortunately most of that eventually got exceptioned out.[/quote]Defense spending is large but it’s not the main problem with the national budget. Healthcare is the biggest one and growing way too fast. You have to address cost side of the equation which means you have to eliminate the medical monopolies and artificial supply constraints. Raising taxes and subsidizing certain individuals isn’t going to fix the real problem.
Participant[quote=spdrun]
(6) THEN look at renovating LGA and JFK[/quote]Aren’t they already renovating JFK. Terminal 3 is gone and might already be in the process of being rebuilt.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]Blue America has the wealth advantage. Whatever Trump does it will only widen the disparity because he’s a coastal billionaire at heart.
The divide is economic, and it is massive. According to the Brookings analysis, the less-than-500 counties that Clinton won nationwide combined to generate 64 percent of America’s economic activity in 2015. The more-than-2,600 counties that Trump won combined to generate 36 percent of the country’s economic activity last year.[/quote]
Only problem with looking at it that way is the Trump counties produced a lot more of the non discretionary items of the economy. The flyover countries can probably live just fine without an iPhone, Facebook, Netflix, or whatever else. Can the coastal regions even survive a week without the food and energy flyover counties produce. If the super markets run out of cellphone packages of chicken the progressive cities of the coast are going to go feral pretty damn quickly.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi]The SNL sketch was really funny. I will need good comedy in the next 4 years.
https://youtu.be/SHG0ezLiVGc%5B/quote%5D
Well at least the comedians will be able to make fun of the president again. Obama was sort of off limits because you were clearly a racist if you made fun of him.
Participant[quote=flu]
They want trade tariffs and punish for made/assembled goods, and yet at the same time, they don’t want to buy a Ford/GM/Dodge(Fiat, whatever). I don’t get it. At least be consistent when you spend with your wallet.Have you seen what UAW does to a Lexus if you try to bring it to meeting? Lol
Tariffs and taxes are great..Until they start to impact your own wallet, and you have to pay a lot more for something you thought wouldn’t affect you..And then, you’l be just as ticked off and anyone else that realized the implications a lot sooner than you did..lol…[/quote]
Yup. The American consumer and their desire for cheaper not better drove manufacturing and many small businesses out of the country. Bitch about Walmart wages, demand tariffs, and want manufacturing back but will scream bloody murder when those changes lower their purchasing power.
Participant[quote=flu]So. I sold most of my stock weeks back, but one thing I didn’t sell was FNMA, lol….
What do guys think I should do with this?
My purchase price were around $1.80/share. I’m thinking let it ride.[/quote]
Throw some stops in behind it. I don’t think the overall picture of the company under Trump really changed all that much but people are optimistic. It’s spiked and given back a lot of the move on more than one occasion the past couple of years.
-
AuthorPosts
