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livinincali
Participant[quote=scaredyclassic]wait. i cant remember. groceries arent taxed, are they.
an oreo shake seems, well, highly resistible…and unnecessary.[/quote]
Most groceries are not taxed. At least the staples that you use to cook with aren’t taxed, I’m not entirely sure about the processed stuff. I don’t usually buy it.
Participant[quote=moneymaker] On the sidelines with lots of company looks like. There’s $129 Billion in the money market I bought.[/quote]
Here comes the money on the sidelines fallacy again. When you sell assets in exchange for cash or cash equivalent there’s a party on the other side of that transaction that must get that cash or cash equivalent from somewhere. Guess where that cash you got for your assets came from. Probably something pretty close to that “sidelines” money market fund that you put it in. Net change to money on the sidelines almost zero minus some transaction costs.
There is one major exception to that. If the buying party borrowed the money from a bank that created it out of thin air using fiat banking then it is possible that the net change for the apparent money on the sidelines goes up. Of course there is a balance sheet liability entry at a bank that balances that increase out.
Money on the sidelines is a myth, there will always be money on the sidelines by definition. For every party getting off the sidelines and buying assets there is another party selling assets and getting on the sidelines.
ParticipantIf you really think long and hard about this situation it doesn’t make sense for the initially blamed parties to intentionally shoot down a civilian aircraft. What do the rebels gain by shooting down a civilian aircraft? What does Russia gain from intentionally shooting down a civilian aircraft? Both are assumed to have done it but for what reason? Certainly I don’t see why Russia or the Rebels would do something like that, because if proven to be true it means the west gets drawn into a battle that the rebels seem to be winning. Now Ukraine on the other hand might have a good reason. What better way to shift the tide of war but to shoot down an aircraft and successfully lay blame on the enemies you seem to be losing too.
This feels a lot like the Syrian chemical weapon attack. Let’s make it look like our enemies did something that crossed the line so we can draw our allies in to assist us to fight a war they aren’t really interested in.
Could Russia or the rebels have done this by mistake. That’s certainly a valid possibility. This plane may have flown on the normal flight path and was deemed some kind of threat that it wasn’t.
It’s messy none the less and the next round of sanctions will probably led to Russia cutting off the gas supplies to Europe.
Participant[quote=yipla]On schools, right now we’re just not that concerned because we don’t have kids. When the time comes, we might re-evaluate and move to another neighborhood. Or do the private school thing.
On HOAs, I also just can’t stand them. I come from a family that does not like neighborly intrusions on our business. And I can’t stand the idea of making a monthly payment for the rest of my life, without building any equity, and with little control over the amount of the payment.[/quote]
The only problem with that is you build very little equity in the front end of a 30 year mortgage. I see that you’re planning to rent this unit out so maybe that doesn’t matter to you. If you do plan to sell you only have about 9.5% equity at the end of 5 years and a little over 20% equity at the end of 10 years. After a 5-6% commission in year 5 of a $500K mortgage you have about $15K in equity left over. Your total payments have been a little over $100K, you’ve paid $30K+ in property taxes so you’re really -$15K after those first 5 years and I have not even included any maintenance.
In the old days you could count of appreciation to accelerate equity building but I’m not sure that’s a safe bet right now. We’re at the high end of affordability right now and the two relief valves for that are higher incomes or lower interest rates. Neither of which seem real likely.
Participant[quote=moneymaker]So spdrun when you say done, you mean fed will keep buying $50 Billion a month forever. What is their “normal” bond buying? Pre-2008. Nice article SD Squatter, didn’t read the whole thing but liked the graphs.[/quote]
No done means the fed will stop buying completely in October. QE3 or QE infinity as some people called it started at $85 billion per month and it will be pared down every fed meeting until it goes to 0 in October.
The question is will we see yields go down again this time when the fed stop buying? I’m not sure but if the stock market corrects hard or crashes then I suppose we could see that behavior repeat itself.
ParticipantClairemont renters are a hodgepodge of everything. Hispanics, military, families, some students. I’d call it working class although it’s probably experiencing some gentrification because of it’s central location. It is an area that doesn’t command the best rents compared to the prices. There’s just so many duplexes and apartments that are always available. You’re probably looking at $2000/mo maybe $2200 to the right people for the linked properties.
Generally west clairemont and north clairemont are the better areas.
ParticipantJust go to Aspen, CO and walk into the McDonald’s. The prices are higher and the workers aren’t making minimum wage. The free market will figure out the correct balance of number of businesses, wages, rent, and prices. It’s only when the government tries to help that you end up with imbalances and hand picked winners and losers. In many respects the single mom getting food stamps, housing assistance, tax credits, and child care making the 7.25 minimum wage is better off than the same person make $18/hr.
Participant[quote=AN][quote=moneymaker]On average earnings are down, on average stock prices are up, I would call this dangerous! I’m thinking bubble, but to make money shorting would be very difficult or very lucky. Look how difficult is was for Bill Ackman to short Herbal Life, and he is a professional. Any business can be propped up, that is the nature of the stock market.[/quote]
Historical data for S&P P/E: http://www.multpl.com/table. Today, it’s sitting around 18-19. In 99-2000, it was 29-33. In 96-97, P/E was around 18-19. Here’s a graph of that data: http://www.multpl.com/. Hardly what I’d call a bubble.[/quote]While P/E has historically been measure of valuation I’m not sure it applies as well during this period of borrowing money to do stock buybacks.
For example I have a company that has 1 billion shares that are $100/sh I have total revenue of $50 billion year and earning or $10 billion per year. So my P/E is 100/10 = 10 and my earnings/share = 10/100 = 10. I then borrow $10 billion to buy back my stock. So now my market cap is $90 billion and I have $10 billion in debt and I still have earnings of $10 billion. Now my P/E is 9 and my earnings per share are 10/90 = 11.11. If I do that is my company anymore valuable than it was before? Before I had 10/sh in earnings and 0 debt. Now I have 11.11/sh in earnings and $10 billion in debt. Assume that my revenues and total earnings are flat. I made company look more valuable than it was before on a P/E ratio but I didn’t change asset value of my company in doing so.
Participant[quote=Happs] Where are the proverbial fast food workers, cashiers and retail clerks in these coastal cities going to live and will they commute from 20 miles away if petrol is $10 per gallon? [/quote]
At home with mom and dad.
If it’s not economical then I guess there won’t be any low wage businesses in Del mar. It then becomes a crappier place to live and prices of homes and apartments fall until it finds the proper balance. Get rid of Section 8, affordable housing and other nonsense and the free market will eventually figure it out. Rents and prices fall until it makes economical sense again.
Participant[quote=deadzone]
That said, nobody is arguing that illegal immigrants aren’t receiving entitlements, we all know that they are. You are correct about medical care. The other obvious cases are use of our public schools and in the case where the illegal has children born in the U.S. they qualify for food stamps and other forms of welfare. HOWEVER, the point is, those benefits aren’t the main factor driving the immmigration. Now, the hope of future amnesty may be the carrot and the stick for some, but as CAR points out, most come here to work and send money back to their family.[/quote]I don’t disagree that their primary driver is to find better paying work. It pays a lot more to be a house cleaner, nanny, or construction worker here even after you factor in the higher cost of living. Low skilled labor gets paid more here and enjoys a better quality of life than most countries. Even things we take for granted like running water and electricity can be luxury items for people in these countries.
Participant[quote=AN][quote=livinincali]
QCOM in 1999 had a market cap of about 75 billion and annual revenues of about 4 billion. So there price to revenue was 18.75. FB has a market cap of 167 billion and revenues of roughly 10 billion = 16.7 price to revenue. TWTR is 23 billion market with revenue projected to be about 1 billion = 23.0 price to revenue. So in valuation terms FB and TWTR are pretty close to where QCOM was at the peak of the 1999 bubble. TWTR is higher, FB is slightly lower. The biggest difference is when they IPO QCOM was a IPO well before the bubble FB and TWTR have both IPOed somewhere in the middle of this bubble.[/quote]
QCOM is just one of those company I listed. There are many many more. How about INTC that went up 200% between 1998 to 2000, MSFT went up 150% between 98-2000, AMD went up 400% between 99-2000. Then there are the huge number of .com that are now completely delisted, like VerticalNet, Ariba, and other B2B, B2C companies. You can almost just throw a dart at a dart board with sticker symbols and you’d make a HUGE gain in spand of a few months.That’s just looking at the stock market over the 1-2 years before it popped. If you look at the longer range of 1995-2000, MSFT went up 1400%, INTC went up 1000%, QCOM went up 5300%, JDSU went up 18000%, etc. Even from the depth of the recession in 2008, these companies have only gone up 50-200%. Get back to me when FB or TWTR went up 18k%. I’ll be kind and say, if FB and TWTR can gain 1000% over 5 years like INTC did, then I would say it’s a bubble.[/quote]
For the private equity investors in FB before it went public they probably did have thousands of percent returns. Tech companies these days aren’t going public as early as they did in the past. Goldman Sacs probably has tons FB stock that translates to a dollar or less when they were early investors.
It’s the valuation that matters not how much something has gone up. It’s it a bubble if the valuation doesn’t make any sense. Not whether it went up 1000% or 100%.
Look at CYNK. It has no revenue. It’s based in Belize with want I can tell is one employee and it’s gone from 0.06 to 9.74 in less than a month. That’s only a 16100% percent return.
I know the stock market is in a bubble. I do not know when it’s going to pop. I fully expect most people to fail to exit at or near the top even though they all think they’re smart enough to get out at the top. It’s just the nature of a bubble. If you think you’ll know the exit point is when TWTR goes up 1000% good luck. I doubt that’s going to be the signal for the top this time around.
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=livinincali] And the biggest issue I have with this situation is that right after the president decides to execute the DREAM act by executive order we got a huge influx of illegal immigrants. Whether the message got lost in translation or not, the Central American’s have certainly taken it as an open invitation to illegally immigrant to America.[/quote]
I doubt those women and kids have even heard of the dream act or understand the intricacies of American immigration laws.[/quote]
That may be true, but the smugglers are telling these parents that if they get their kid to America they aren’t going to be getting deported. Unfortunately that’s been true so they keep sending their kids up here.
Participant[quote=deadzone][quote=paramount]Fact:
In 2009 (based on data collected in 2010), ~60 percent of households headed by an immigrant (legal and illegal) with children (under 18) used at least one welfare program, compared to 39 percent for native households with children.[/quote]
This topic is about illegal immigrants, not immigrants in general so the uncited statistic you claim as fact is irrelevant.
Since you are such an expert, why don’t you give some examples of the entitlements that draw illegal immigrants to the U.S.?[/quote]
Medical services is probably the biggest one. You get treated even if you can’t pay here, over there you aren’t getting treated if you can’t pay.
Participant[quote=UCGal]Back to the Murrietta protests.
Correct me where I’m wrong:
– The buses being blocked were ICE buses with undocumented folks who’d been CAUGHT. The buses were taking them from one Homeland Security facility that was overcrowded, to a less crowded facility.
– The ICE folks weren’t going to just release these detainees. They were going to process them, schedule hearing dates, and follow the legal due process procedures.
– After processing at Murrietta they were going to be shipped off to other ICE facilities, and if there were sponsors available, some of these folks *might* be able to be released to custody of the sponsors (in other locations) to await their deportation hearing.
Did I get this right? This is what I’ve been reading.
Why are folks who are theoretically concerned about the “illegal” aspect of the border crossings now trying to circumvent the law and order process? Why aren’t they supporting the detaining of these immigrants while their legal status us determined?
If the block enough buses – the ICE will be forced to release them onto the streets since they have no room for them in the facilities in Texas.
Seems like if you’re for law an order, you should be allowing the Homeland Security folks to actually follow the laws and provide due process – even if that means housing detainees at the INS facility in Murrietta.[/quote]
Yeah I would agree with that. What the protestors did doesn’t exactly get them what they want. It probably hinders the process of deporting them more than it helps. The problem I have with the situation why don’t we just streamline the deportation process. It’s expensive to transport these illegal immigrants around. It’s expensive to have to go through a long processing process and then go before the judge.
And the biggest issue I have with this situation is that right after the president decides to execute the DREAM act by executive order we got a huge influx of illegal immigrants. Whether the message got lost in translation or not, the Central American’s have certainly taken it as an open invitation to illegally immigrant to America.
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