[livinincali]

And it just gets better for Cruz. Now he’s being investigated by FEC for irregularities in his campaign financing.

http://docquery.fec.gov/pdf/050/201602210300038050/201602210300038050.pdf?platform=hootsuite

[livinincali]

[quote=harvey]
I don’t like the idea of anyone being disqualified on a technicality. Trump is being a douche for playing that card.

The “natural born citizen” requirement was meant to prevent someone with conflicting loyalties taking office. I don’t like anything about Cruz as a candidate, but I also do not doubt that he is loyal to the US and no other country. He should be qualified to run, and hopefully lose.[/quote]

I don’t like the idea that we treat our constitution as some sort of suggestions document. Why must we make all these exceptions when the rules are already spelled out. I don’t doubt Cruz’s loyalty but I don’t understand why we need to make an exception for him.

[livinincali]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Question is now is who will benefit from the Jeb organization and the hundreds of millions he raised.[/quote]

The establishment probably goes all in on Rubio now. Cruz is generating some question marks, but he still has a shot. It’s probably down to 3 now Trump, Rubio and Cruz.

[livinincali]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
I’m pretty politically aware, but I’m not really sure what Dodd-Frank does other than financial regulations.

What exactly does Dodd-Frank do that is so offensive to Republicans?
[/quote]

The banking lobbyists are telling them it’s not good and those precious campaign contributions from the big banks have string attached.

[livinincali]

[quote=poorgradstudent]High rents and the rent vs. own index is part of why anytime someone around here yells “bubble” my reaction is “not so fast…”[/quote]

The problem is that interest rates are a huge factor in that calculation. Own vs rent looks much better at 3.5% rates rather than 6% rates. Of course rates will probably stay low for awhile, so home prices will probably stay elevated.

[livinincali]

[quote=flu]
Casa Mira View hasn’t really affected condo rent prices in the area, because that complex is pretty much high end. High end prices in mira mesa that is almost the same price as rent prices in apartments in carmel valley.

Not saying it’s not going to be successful. It’s just a different sub market.

In general, despite Qualcomm’s misfortunes, it doesn’t seem like there is a significantslowdown in the business activity in Sorrento Valley. Perhaps, as many have been saying San Diego has more diverse economy than most of us think.

Looking at rental availability for someone starting out, it’s pretty slim pickings… 1 bedrooms are close to $1400 now, more for large complexes.

Resale isn’t much better. Asking prices for 1/1’s are starting to get over $200k and over and 2/2 closer to $300k and over.[/quote]

I have no idea exactly what the effect will be. It’s just quite a bit of supply into a market that isn’t that big. If I include Sorrento, Carmel Valley, Mira Mesa, and Rancho Pensequitos there’s about 10K apartment units. So this adds almost 10% to the total supply. I suppose if you include the UTC area as well it’s only 5% in an increase of supply.

The one other thing about Mira Mesa is that past 3 quarters average rents are basically flat. So unless we get a big increase in Q2 2016 the YoY for Q2 2016 is going to be basically zero. Of course historically we have gotten big rent jump in Q2 for Mira Mesa so we’ll see.

[livinincali]

[quote=flu]mira mesa rent keeps going up too[/quote]

Mira mesa on the other hand is up about 7% yoy although the year over year rent increase has been decreasing the last 3 quarters. It was 8.2% in 2015Q2 it’s 6.8% in 2016Q1.

There is a huge property coming late this year or early next year. Case Mira View Phase 2 is going to add 1165 units.

[livinincali]

From my information involving 6604 units in the San Marcos area average rents are basically flat year over year with it actually being just slightly down year over year. Of course these are mostly the bigger complexes with better information so maybe the they are slightly ahead of the craigslist people. There are a couple big developments coming later later this year that’s going to add about 700 units to the San Marcos area. The increase in supply should keep rent increases down somewhat in that market.

This is 416 units
http://www.intracorpcompanies.com/newhomes-details/84/1001-armorlite-drive

Block C Apartments at Campus Way is another 200 units.

Then
Grand Ave @ Creekside – Promenade At Creekside is another 100

[livinincali]

[quote=The-Shoveler]The Stock market and the local economy seem to be in different universes as far as I can see.

very interesting.

Usually I can tell just by looking at L.A. Traffic if we are heading into a downturn, Seems busier than ever right now.[/quote]

Last time we were in the epicenter of the bubble. Everybody and their brother was a mortgage broker or real estate agent. The sales declined and their income started drying up before the bubble popped. This time we’re going along for the ride. There will probably be some job impact in technology and biotech though. QCOM stock peaked a year and half ago. The biotechs peaked about 6 months ago.

[livinincali]

At this point you shouldn’t bother trying to get in until this market actually trades above the 200 day moving average. You won’t get to brag to your friends about getting in at the bottom but you also aren’t risking getting caught in a major market decline which is a possibility now. I think the Fed is going to be pretty powerless from preventing a crash at this point.

[livinincali]

dup submit

[livinincali]

BLS has a calculator on their site.

http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl

Alternatively you can do this calculation.

12000 * ( CPI value now / CPI particular older year)

[livinincali]

[quote=paramount]I’d like to understand how the market jumped 1% in 10 minutes today.[/quote]

Because we’re in a volatile market that has the potential to crash. This kind of stuff happens in those type of markets. There we 10+% up days in the middle of the 2008 crash. Those rallies didn’t last very long usually a day maybe 2. If the market is going to crash I’d expect a decent sized rally somewhere in the next month or 2 in which everybody signals the all clear right before things fall apart but you never know . I’d definitely be careful here, but I don’t know that I’d bet the farm on shorting this market either. Making money in a potential bear market is a lot easier said than done. It looks really easy in hindsight but not when you in the middle of it.

Then again small investors are probably going to get taken for the ride this time just like they did in 2000 and 2008. Even though they said to themselves they’d never let it happen again they are going to let it happen again.

[livinincali]

[quote=poorgradstudent]
Small as their support was, the Huckabee and Santorum voters almost certainly won’t like Trump; although he panders to the religious right, for a true Social Conservative his positions are going to look muddled. Cruz or Rubio could both gobble up their support, but even Carson could.[/quote]

Huckabeee just dropped out as well. I expect Santorum to be not too far behind him. Looks like Cruz just admitted to get caught for spreading false information about Carson dropping out right before the caucus. Not sure what the fallout will be.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/02/politics/ted-cruz-ben-carson-apology/

[livinincali]

Rand Paul just did the smart thing and dropped out. No point in burning up more money on a fruitless campaign. I don’t know how anybody donates anymore money to the Republican non-top 4 but maybe Jeb’s cash furnace will run long enough to get him back into a the mix a bit. The best thing for the establishment, that doesn’t want Trump, is to get these not going anywhere campaigns out of the way quickly.

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