[lindismith]

Yeah, I tend to lump together Sunset Cliffs and OB just because it’s the same grocery stores, restaurants, gas stations etc. But, the further you are from the pier, the better. Thanks for clarifying Steve B.

As for the schools in South Park: unfortunately, I have no idea. I don’t have kids, and friends that were there, ended up moving to Mission Hills. I think the high school downtown was recently ranked among the top schools in SD, but I don’t know if you’d get your kids in there. And, I don’t know what high school kids go to in South Park. I think Mission Hills kids may go to Point Loma.

Overall, Point Loma, and Sunset Cliffs are more family-oriented. I live on the edge of Mission Hills now, and when I go for an evening run through the neighborhoods, I don’t see young kids, and families, I see older couples, or gay couples. But that’s also because I’m more on the Hillcrest side, which is a little more urban (as opposed to suburban), and definitely more gay.

But, definitely check out Mission Hills. Come up through the back part of Old Town. You’ll see plenty of nice long driveways! And when I’m there to watch the fireworks on the 4th, there are plenty of families in their yards.

[lindismith]

We might have the same taste, so also look into the following:

Mission Hills – great homes and architecture, nice lots, and windy streets with trees. On the edge of some canyons are magnificent views, but be aware that on some streets, you can really hear the roar of I-5 or the planes taking off at the airport. But, amazingly beautiful, with lots of old homes, and big established shady trees.

Kensington – nice community feel, great homes like the above, but pocketed between some shady neighborhoods. Weather is slightly warmer in Summer as it is more east, but it is right off the 15, and you could be downtown in minutes. Lots of good restaurants, etc too.

South Park – I think this is one of San Diego’s best kept secrets. Huge lots, Craftsmen and Spanish style homes, many overlooking Balboa Park, or the golf course, minutes from downtown, and home to San Diego’s hippest new restaurant, Vagabond. (Seriously, the types in there are some cool cats . And I don’t mean hipsters, I mean professionals with good jobs, but not plastic-y.)

Mt. Helix – a little further east, but some of San Diego’s oldest money, and many, many custom homes. Plus, the views are magnificent. Schools are good. But, a little harder to get in and out of. You’d soon learn the back roads. In fact there may be a way to jump on the 94 and head straight into downtown that I don’t know about. The neat thing about those homes up there is many have granny flats (so if you have aging parents, it’s kind of nice to know they could live with you, but not be on top of you.)

The funny thing about San Diego is that there are pockets all over the place. (I’m talking about below the 8.) So, if you don’t mind going a few blocks through bad stuff to get to good stuff, you can find beautiful homes.

I’ve heard Clairemont is very up and coming, and of course it’s ‘central’, but unless you’ve got an amazing view, and live on the edge of a canyon, I still think the homes are the worst types of tract homes ever built, and getting in and out is for the birds.

[lindismith]

Hammer, I love that area too. Sounds like you are going to be living there a long time, so timing the market isn’t necessarily the most important thing to you.

Here are the plusses as I see them:
– close to downtown, and easy commute if you go over the hill, past the airport along the harbor. What a great drive every a.m!
– beach within walking distance
– nice community feel; people talk to their neighbors
– ‘alternative flavor’ – kinda hippie, kinda granola-y
– all the homes are different, and have nice size lots
– great restaurants, bars and shops
– People’s Market!
– Old Venice Cafe
– lots of homes being fixed up, and adding value to each block

Here are the negatives as I see them:
– some noise from the airport. I would go and stand on some of the streets you like, for an hour or so at a time, and see how bad the noise is. Stand there at night too, and see what it’s like. When looking at homes, see if the bedrooms have double-paned windows.
– The alternative flavor is sometimes a little too much – many drunks and drug addicts that sit down on the beach wall all day. Whose garden do they sleep in at night? Could your kids leave their bikes in the yard not locked up? There’s a transient factor too. It seems like the end of the 8 is the end of the road for a lot of people coming out West.

All in all, I think it’s still a great area, and the negatives maybe worth putting up with. If I were you, I’d try to find out a little more about the schools. I’ve heard the high school in Point Loma is pretty good, so keep asking around. At this point, you’ve got plenty of time to do your homework, and find out what you need to know. PD is right, even renting in the area, you’d learn a lot!

[lindismith]

Nice synopsis, Kev374.

I’m already seeing condos that are affordible (for me) in my area of Hillcrest, Northpark, Mission Hills etc.

It is staggering how fast they have come down.

[lindismith]

ok, well then just to play devil’s advocate, why would they go to so much trouble to tout their Zestimate, if indeed it’s not worth anything? I mean, I think it’s trademarked (or tradenamed etc.)!!

I think we all realize it can’t replace an appraiser, but if it’s so off, what’s the point in having it?

[lindismith]

Plus, they’re all counting on selling their houses to pay for care when they have to move into old-age homes!

Have you guys seen what it costs to put your parents in one of those?

[lindismith]

Yeah, thanks for posting this. Interesting. Seems like their data will only be valuable when the it’s like the stock ticker: up to the minute. That presumes however, that our whole culture has bought into the fact that a home is not a place to live, but just an investment. Is that the thinking we’re stuck in at the moment? (And preceeding 3-5 years?) Is that why Zillow thinks they provide a much-needed service?

Without the bubble, would Zillow have been invented?

[lindismith]

JG, love your charts.

Just curious if the same holds true for 1 and 2-bedrooms?

[lindismith]

December, interesting. That should help the economy come a screetching halt!

Does anyone check Mr. Brightside’s blog? He posts the losses in dollar values, and it’s really crazy how much people are losing on those downtown condos.

[lindismith]

If you’ve been trying to figure out the general premise of this site for 2 years, then nothing any of us can say in this thread can help you.

Good luck!

[lindismith]

There will always be full service business advising heirs, high income clients etc.

Well said. Agreed.

[lindismith]

I don’t know – some phone calls to heirs, and floor plan info is not that labor-intensive. I’m not saying what you do doesn’t have value. What I’m saying is you have to re-evaluate how business get’s done. A lot of it is moving to an electronic format.

Look at my firm. We’re in manufacturing. Do you know how many of my competitors don’t have websites, and it’s 2006?! Do you know 90% of my new business comes from my online presence? Do you know how many deals I do on email, without ever talking to my customers face to face?

I’m not saying RE agents are replaceable, but I think those that embrace technology are going to come out ahead.

And if you’ve taken a shower, you should certainly know how a shower curtain is made. It’s a piece of material with hem across the top, and some holes for the rings. Anyone could figure it out. Same with RE. It’s pretty simple. RE agents have tried to keep the general public in the dark for years. I’m glad there’s transparency now.

[lindismith]

The RE selling machine (in my opinion) is the Internet. It displays the houses, in the zip codes I want to live, gives me all the info, and I just need to go to the house, and see if I like it.

I think Perry’s right. IPay may have not been successful, but it just could be a little too early for them, or someone else will tweak the model, and come out ahead.

[lindismith]

Great prose. Interesting guy.

One other good tidbit on the comparasion between the tech bubble and the RE bubble:
“Isn’t this reminiscent of the general optimism which reigned in the post-bubble decline of the Nasdaq in 2000-2001?
As a trader/shareholder in a number of tech and Internet stocks, I recall with painful clarity how analysts of all stripes–and not just the known hacks and hypsters–predicted that the “bottom was in” around August 2000–two full years before the decline from 4,000 hit actual bottom at 1,100 in October 2002.”

We’re in for a long, bumpy ride.

[lindismith]

I’d love to know what the “labor-intensive” part is.

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