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LA_Renter
ParticipantI would like to say that the UT has done a very good job reporting many aspects of the housing downturn especially compared to a couple of years ago. Now with that said I have a question, after reading this specific article and knowing what most of us know based on some pretty hard data that is provided on this website (you do a a great job Rich), does anybody feel that this article totally insults their intelligence??
I mean the fist part of the article meme is “the worst is over”. Yes sales volume has fallen to the levels not seen since the mid 1990’s and yes there are some foreclosures but Hey Look at the MEDIAN PRICE, it’s still holding pretty good. There was no mention that the Median Price is perhaps not an accurate measuring tool especially compared to others like the Case Shiller Index. There was not one mention of the credit markets and ARM resets in this article, not one. There was no mention of affordability. In my book that is just irresponsible reporting.
The second part of the article does illustrate how bad some of these foreclosures are becoming and there really is no let up in sight. All in all this is a fluff piece and how John Karevoll says this
“As perceptions change and buyers understand that what they’re buying will keep its value or go up, you should see between now and the end of the year the number of sales tick up off this floor level,” Karevoll said. “The big IF there is what happens in the broader economy. The big one there is mortgage interest rates.”
OK now we are approaching Gary Watts territory.
“Union Bank of California senior economist Keitaro Matsuda, though, said that concerns about foreclosures dragging down overall home prices may be misplaced. So far “prices don’t seem to be affected all that much.”
Yes we will have sales volume drop off the cliff and we will see a record number of foreclosures but THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT ON PRICES……..let me repeat that…. THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT ON PRICES…..GOT THAT…GOOD
ParticipantI would like to say that the UT has done a very good job reporting many aspects of the housing downturn especially compared to a couple of years ago. Now with that said I have a question, after reading this specific article and knowing what most of us know based on some pretty hard data that is provided on this website (you do a a great job Rich), does anybody feel that this article totally insults their intelligence??
I mean the fist part of the article meme is “the worst is over”. Yes sales volume has fallen to the levels not seen since the mid 1990’s and yes there are some foreclosures but Hey Look at the MEDIAN PRICE, it’s still holding pretty good. There was no mention that the Median Price is perhaps not an accurate measuring tool especially compared to others like the Case Shiller Index. There was not one mention of the credit markets and ARM resets in this article, not one. There was no mention of affordability. In my book that is just irresponsible reporting.
The second part of the article does illustrate how bad some of these foreclosures are becoming and there really is no let up in sight. All in all this is a fluff piece and how John Karevoll says this
“As perceptions change and buyers understand that what they’re buying will keep its value or go up, you should see between now and the end of the year the number of sales tick up off this floor level,” Karevoll said. “The big IF there is what happens in the broader economy. The big one there is mortgage interest rates.”
OK now we are approaching Gary Watts territory.
“Union Bank of California senior economist Keitaro Matsuda, though, said that concerns about foreclosures dragging down overall home prices may be misplaced. So far “prices don’t seem to be affected all that much.”
Yes we will have sales volume drop off the cliff and we will see a record number of foreclosures but THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT ON PRICES……..let me repeat that…. THERE WILL BE NO IMPACT ON PRICES…..GOT THAT…GOOD
ParticipantParticipantParticipantI am long on the Australian dollar, I’m lovin it. The US Dollar is down right scary right now. I think the consensus is to see the dollar rally off of its current lows, given that 80 has been the super support level for three decades, right now its hovering at 80.50. It definitely puts the stock market in context.
I found this on Minyaanville
“People seem to be pretty excited about the new all-time high in the S&P500 yesterday.But it’s too bad that the “new high” wasn’t even a new high for the year (or the month) when we denominate the SPX in a “hard currency” like the euro (see the chart below) instead of the collapsing U.S. peso… errrr… I mean “dollar”.
https://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK/File/christy/713l1.jpg
This is from Barrons
There is a fundamental difference between a stock market that rises on the back of a falling currency from one that is accompanied by a rising currency, a point made here before (“Is the Dow’s Recovery a Mere Illusion?,” April 17.) A bull market can be seen as a form of money illusion, in which higher share prices can be seen as a reflection as the loss of value of the currency in which they are denominated.As Dennis Gartman, the eponymous author of the widely read Gartman Letter, has pointed out on several occasions, the best performing stock market in the world is Zimbabwe. In the hyperinflationary hell created Robert Mugabe, stocks are bid up as the public dumps the collapsing currency in exchange for any asset that might have some residual real value.
More than in terms of other paper currencies or assets, the dollar’s decline is most evident in terms of gold. The barbarous relic gained another 0.9% based on the streetTRACKS Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, which closed at 66.02. (Each share of the ETF represents ownership of 1/10 of an ounce of gold, making its price equivalent to $660.20 an ounce.)
In other words, the Dow’s Thursday increase in real terms was about half what met the eye. And much of those gains were the result of short-covering. All of which makes the rally rather less impressive than the hyperventilating cheerleaders would have you believe.
ParticipantI am long on the Australian dollar, I’m lovin it. The US Dollar is down right scary right now. I think the consensus is to see the dollar rally off of its current lows, given that 80 has been the super support level for three decades, right now its hovering at 80.50. It definitely puts the stock market in context.
I found this on Minyaanville
“People seem to be pretty excited about the new all-time high in the S&P500 yesterday.But it’s too bad that the “new high” wasn’t even a new high for the year (or the month) when we denominate the SPX in a “hard currency” like the euro (see the chart below) instead of the collapsing U.S. peso… errrr… I mean “dollar”.
https://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK/File/christy/713l1.jpg
This is from Barrons
There is a fundamental difference between a stock market that rises on the back of a falling currency from one that is accompanied by a rising currency, a point made here before (“Is the Dow’s Recovery a Mere Illusion?,” April 17.) A bull market can be seen as a form of money illusion, in which higher share prices can be seen as a reflection as the loss of value of the currency in which they are denominated.As Dennis Gartman, the eponymous author of the widely read Gartman Letter, has pointed out on several occasions, the best performing stock market in the world is Zimbabwe. In the hyperinflationary hell created Robert Mugabe, stocks are bid up as the public dumps the collapsing currency in exchange for any asset that might have some residual real value.
More than in terms of other paper currencies or assets, the dollar’s decline is most evident in terms of gold. The barbarous relic gained another 0.9% based on the streetTRACKS Gold Shares exchange-traded fund, which closed at 66.02. (Each share of the ETF represents ownership of 1/10 of an ounce of gold, making its price equivalent to $660.20 an ounce.)
In other words, the Dow’s Thursday increase in real terms was about half what met the eye. And much of those gains were the result of short-covering. All of which makes the rally rather less impressive than the hyperventilating cheerleaders would have you believe.
ParticipantIs it just me or does it seem that most people are very calm and complacent in the face of one the largest waves of foreclosures to ever hit the residential RE market. The people that I talk to that don’t follow the market just aren’t aware of this and don’t really seem to care. Is there some piece of information I’m missing here?
ParticipantIs it just me or does it seem that most people are very calm and complacent in the face of one the largest waves of foreclosures to ever hit the residential RE market. The people that I talk to that don’t follow the market just aren’t aware of this and don’t really seem to care. Is there some piece of information I’m missing here?
ParticipantPsssssst. Hey buddy want to buy some subprime bonds.
ParticipantPsssssst. Hey buddy want to buy some subprime bonds.
ParticipantWhat amazes me is the amount of liquidity sloshing around with simply no place else to go. What worries me is the US Dollar index dangerously close to breaking the 80 floor. I am not a big fan of this economy.
ParticipantWhat amazes me is the amount of liquidity sloshing around with simply no place else to go. What worries me is the US Dollar index dangerously close to breaking the 80 floor. I am not a big fan of this economy.
ParticipantI can’t help but make a post on this. The front page of today’s Yahoo Finance confirms my sound reasoning for a stock market rally
STOCKS SURGE ON RETAIL SALES REPORTS (Headline at top of page)
Now here is the AP story on the same page
Stores Post Lackluster Sales in June
Stores Post Tepid Sales in June, With Shoppers Rattled by Gasoline Prices, Weak Housing MarketNEW YORK (AP) — The nation’s consumers, uninspired by this season’s fashions and rattled by high gas prices and the weak housing market, shopped gingerly last month, extending the misery of retailers who have struggled with a spending slowdown since February.
As merchants reported their June sales results Thursday, the disappointments cut across many segments of the industry including Macy’s Inc., AnnTaylor Stores Corp. and trendy apparel chain Bebe Stores Inc. One notable exception was Wal-Mart Stores Inc., whose renewed emphasis on low prices helped drive sales gains above analysts’ expectations.
“Retail sales are generally soft as we expected. Consumers look like they are holding back on discretionary purchases particularly in apparel,” said Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass. He added that shoppers are “facing a long list of headwinds as they head into the rest of the summer.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070712/retail_sales.html?.v=5
DOW 15000 by October
ParticipantI can’t help but make a post on this. The front page of today’s Yahoo Finance confirms my sound reasoning for a stock market rally
STOCKS SURGE ON RETAIL SALES REPORTS (Headline at top of page)
Now here is the AP story on the same page
Stores Post Lackluster Sales in June
Stores Post Tepid Sales in June, With Shoppers Rattled by Gasoline Prices, Weak Housing MarketNEW YORK (AP) — The nation’s consumers, uninspired by this season’s fashions and rattled by high gas prices and the weak housing market, shopped gingerly last month, extending the misery of retailers who have struggled with a spending slowdown since February.
As merchants reported their June sales results Thursday, the disappointments cut across many segments of the industry including Macy’s Inc., AnnTaylor Stores Corp. and trendy apparel chain Bebe Stores Inc. One notable exception was Wal-Mart Stores Inc., whose renewed emphasis on low prices helped drive sales gains above analysts’ expectations.
“Retail sales are generally soft as we expected. Consumers look like they are holding back on discretionary purchases particularly in apparel,” said Ken Perkins, president of RetailMetrics LLC, a research company in Swampscott, Mass. He added that shoppers are “facing a long list of headwinds as they head into the rest of the summer.”
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070712/retail_sales.html?.v=5
DOW 15000 by October
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