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LA_Renter
ParticipantThere has been a flight to quality in the bond market that is now expanding into top quality mortgages. That explains the few ticks down in conforming rates. During the chaos over the past few weeks anything that had the word mortgage was shunned, thats why you had yields on the 10 yr note falling while the conforming rates were going up. Subprime and now Alt-A are basically gone and the rates on jumbo’s are rising. I have been reading the mortgage broker forums and those guys are still scrambling, the programs they were using are dropping like flies. As far as the increase in mortgage applications, yes given the current crisis multiple applications are filed trying to find the last vestiges of cheap money. There is a huge short squeeze going on today in HB’s and lenders, I guess CNBC is giving some headlines to help fuel it. Nothing has changed, we are still in a credit crunch. There will be a big hedge fund or lender that will going belly up or a series of them in the near future. All is not clear.
ParticipantThere has been a flight to quality in the bond market that is now expanding into top quality mortgages. That explains the few ticks down in conforming rates. During the chaos over the past few weeks anything that had the word mortgage was shunned, thats why you had yields on the 10 yr note falling while the conforming rates were going up. Subprime and now Alt-A are basically gone and the rates on jumbo’s are rising. I have been reading the mortgage broker forums and those guys are still scrambling, the programs they were using are dropping like flies. As far as the increase in mortgage applications, yes given the current crisis multiple applications are filed trying to find the last vestiges of cheap money. There is a huge short squeeze going on today in HB’s and lenders, I guess CNBC is giving some headlines to help fuel it. Nothing has changed, we are still in a credit crunch. There will be a big hedge fund or lender that will going belly up or a series of them in the near future. All is not clear.
ParticipantThere has been a flight to quality in the bond market that is now expanding into top quality mortgages. That explains the few ticks down in conforming rates. During the chaos over the past few weeks anything that had the word mortgage was shunned, thats why you had yields on the 10 yr note falling while the conforming rates were going up. Subprime and now Alt-A are basically gone and the rates on jumbo’s are rising. I have been reading the mortgage broker forums and those guys are still scrambling, the programs they were using are dropping like flies. As far as the increase in mortgage applications, yes given the current crisis multiple applications are filed trying to find the last vestiges of cheap money. There is a huge short squeeze going on today in HB’s and lenders, I guess CNBC is giving some headlines to help fuel it. Nothing has changed, we are still in a credit crunch. There will be a big hedge fund or lender that will going belly up or a series of them in the near future. All is not clear.
ParticipantPlain and simple Bernanke does not have the luxury that Greenspan did. He has a weak dollar, high oil and rising commodity prices. I think today’s meeting and the FED’s continued hawkish inflation stance was a last nail in coffin moment for housing. This credit crunch isn’t going away and California home sales are coming to an abrupt stop. And it appears there is nothing anybody can do about it.
ParticipantPlain and simple Bernanke does not have the luxury that Greenspan did. He has a weak dollar, high oil and rising commodity prices. I think today’s meeting and the FED’s continued hawkish inflation stance was a last nail in coffin moment for housing. This credit crunch isn’t going away and California home sales are coming to an abrupt stop. And it appears there is nothing anybody can do about it.
ParticipantPlain and simple Bernanke does not have the luxury that Greenspan did. He has a weak dollar, high oil and rising commodity prices. I think today’s meeting and the FED’s continued hawkish inflation stance was a last nail in coffin moment for housing. This credit crunch isn’t going away and California home sales are coming to an abrupt stop. And it appears there is nothing anybody can do about it.
ParticipantNo change whatsoever. That tells me they are looking real hard at the dollar.
ParticipantNo change whatsoever. That tells me they are looking real hard at the dollar.
ParticipantNo change whatsoever. That tells me they are looking real hard at the dollar.
ParticipantHe might prance in but “saving the day” is a whole other matter.
ParticipantHe might prance in but “saving the day” is a whole other matter.
ParticipantHe might prance in but “saving the day” is a whole other matter.
ParticipantThe dollar is critically low. If he comes across too dovish the US Dollar index may fall below 80, I think FED actually measures the dollar with another index but that one is sitting at a 30 year low. The media doesn’t talk about it much but I guarantee you the FED is taking that into consideration. Most of the economic data came in softer than expected but not enough for any FED action. The credit crunch is more of a market event than anything to do with monetary policy but he will probably incorporate some type of language they are aware of the problem and will act accordingly if it begins to harm the economy of which right now it is not (yet) in their view. Bernanke believes in market corrections, this one has only gotten started so he will stay the course. Thats my take.
ParticipantThe dollar is critically low. If he comes across too dovish the US Dollar index may fall below 80, I think FED actually measures the dollar with another index but that one is sitting at a 30 year low. The media doesn’t talk about it much but I guarantee you the FED is taking that into consideration. Most of the economic data came in softer than expected but not enough for any FED action. The credit crunch is more of a market event than anything to do with monetary policy but he will probably incorporate some type of language they are aware of the problem and will act accordingly if it begins to harm the economy of which right now it is not (yet) in their view. Bernanke believes in market corrections, this one has only gotten started so he will stay the course. Thats my take.
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