[KSMountain]

[quote=deadzone]CAR, excellent point on the move up market as a factor in the dollar amount vs. % increase. Bigger picture, the death of the move up market is just another component that will eventually kill the mid-high end market, in addition to the loss of high paying jobs and other factors.[/quote]
I intuitively disagree with you DZ that all or most of the high paying jobs were ponzi/realestate/financial related.

What about doctors and lawyers? Top engineers. Executives. Business owners.

I don’t have numbers to back up my position but I feel you’re overestimating the share of high-wage jobs that were related to real estate.

[KSMountain]

[quote=deadzone]CAR, excellent point on the move up market as a factor in the dollar amount vs. % increase. Bigger picture, the death of the move up market is just another component that will eventually kill the mid-high end market, in addition to the loss of high paying jobs and other factors.[/quote]
I intuitively disagree with you DZ that all or most of the high paying jobs were ponzi/realestate/financial related.

What about doctors and lawyers? Top engineers. Executives. Business owners.

I don’t have numbers to back up my position but I feel you’re overestimating the share of high-wage jobs that were related to real estate.

[KSMountain]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Much better than Jimbos which is an overpriced health food store. I call it the home of the $10 organic tomato. Whole Foods is more reasonable and has great prepared foods. For a single person or someone who likes great food but has kids who eat simply, you can walk in and get yourself a healthy gourmet meal for alot less than at a restaurant. You will love it.[/quote]

Great! Looking forward to it. 🙂

Haven’t been in a Whole Foods since the late 80s/early 90s in L.A.

I still love Jimbo’s though.[/quote]
Hey but no one has opined on whether it will help or hurt RE prices…

I think being walkable to Seaside Market is a positive for Cardiff RE. The Whole Foods in Encinitas could be that way, and maybe lead to a kind of yuppie upscale vibe with perhaps new spin-off commercial enterprises nearby.

On the other hand, it could be a traffic nightmare, and could it turn into kind of a ghetto around there?

Here’s another one where time will tell…

[KSMountain]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Much better than Jimbos which is an overpriced health food store. I call it the home of the $10 organic tomato. Whole Foods is more reasonable and has great prepared foods. For a single person or someone who likes great food but has kids who eat simply, you can walk in and get yourself a healthy gourmet meal for alot less than at a restaurant. You will love it.[/quote]

Great! Looking forward to it. 🙂

Haven’t been in a Whole Foods since the late 80s/early 90s in L.A.

I still love Jimbo’s though.[/quote]
Hey but no one has opined on whether it will help or hurt RE prices…

I think being walkable to Seaside Market is a positive for Cardiff RE. The Whole Foods in Encinitas could be that way, and maybe lead to a kind of yuppie upscale vibe with perhaps new spin-off commercial enterprises nearby.

On the other hand, it could be a traffic nightmare, and could it turn into kind of a ghetto around there?

Here’s another one where time will tell…

[KSMountain]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Much better than Jimbos which is an overpriced health food store. I call it the home of the $10 organic tomato. Whole Foods is more reasonable and has great prepared foods. For a single person or someone who likes great food but has kids who eat simply, you can walk in and get yourself a healthy gourmet meal for alot less than at a restaurant. You will love it.[/quote]

Great! Looking forward to it. 🙂

Haven’t been in a Whole Foods since the late 80s/early 90s in L.A.

I still love Jimbo’s though.[/quote]
Hey but no one has opined on whether it will help or hurt RE prices…

I think being walkable to Seaside Market is a positive for Cardiff RE. The Whole Foods in Encinitas could be that way, and maybe lead to a kind of yuppie upscale vibe with perhaps new spin-off commercial enterprises nearby.

On the other hand, it could be a traffic nightmare, and could it turn into kind of a ghetto around there?

Here’s another one where time will tell…

[KSMountain]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Much better than Jimbos which is an overpriced health food store. I call it the home of the $10 organic tomato. Whole Foods is more reasonable and has great prepared foods. For a single person or someone who likes great food but has kids who eat simply, you can walk in and get yourself a healthy gourmet meal for alot less than at a restaurant. You will love it.[/quote]

Great! Looking forward to it. 🙂

Haven’t been in a Whole Foods since the late 80s/early 90s in L.A.

I still love Jimbo’s though.[/quote]
Hey but no one has opined on whether it will help or hurt RE prices…

I think being walkable to Seaside Market is a positive for Cardiff RE. The Whole Foods in Encinitas could be that way, and maybe lead to a kind of yuppie upscale vibe with perhaps new spin-off commercial enterprises nearby.

On the other hand, it could be a traffic nightmare, and could it turn into kind of a ghetto around there?

Here’s another one where time will tell…

[KSMountain]

[quote=CA renter][quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Much better than Jimbos which is an overpriced health food store. I call it the home of the $10 organic tomato. Whole Foods is more reasonable and has great prepared foods. For a single person or someone who likes great food but has kids who eat simply, you can walk in and get yourself a healthy gourmet meal for alot less than at a restaurant. You will love it.[/quote]

Great! Looking forward to it. 🙂

Haven’t been in a Whole Foods since the late 80s/early 90s in L.A.

I still love Jimbo’s though.[/quote]
Hey but no one has opined on whether it will help or hurt RE prices…

I think being walkable to Seaside Market is a positive for Cardiff RE. The Whole Foods in Encinitas could be that way, and maybe lead to a kind of yuppie upscale vibe with perhaps new spin-off commercial enterprises nearby.

On the other hand, it could be a traffic nightmare, and could it turn into kind of a ghetto around there?

Here’s another one where time will tell…

[KSMountain]

I agree with you sdduude. I don’t like skulduggery with public money, nor kickbacks. And I don’t like unions, sorry.

I did like your dike example though. 🙂

I think if you take the top 20 folks in almost any endeavor, a cursory glance at their salaries would be surprising, and you might initially think they were shockingly unjustified. Imagine what the top 20 plastic surgeons make…

But isn’t this called “selection bias”? Of course the numbers were large, they were the top 20! What about all the rest of the folks? How many folks are drawing a pension from the city of SD? 100,000? 500,000? What’s the mean and standard deviation of their payouts?

Now of course that’s much less sensational and less fun to grouse about, but statistically more relevant I think.

I think we need to be careful when considering making policy decisions based on some small number of folks we want to “target”. That’s how you end up with things like the AMT.

[KSMountain]

I agree with you sdduude. I don’t like skulduggery with public money, nor kickbacks. And I don’t like unions, sorry.

I did like your dike example though. 🙂

I think if you take the top 20 folks in almost any endeavor, a cursory glance at their salaries would be surprising, and you might initially think they were shockingly unjustified. Imagine what the top 20 plastic surgeons make…

But isn’t this called “selection bias”? Of course the numbers were large, they were the top 20! What about all the rest of the folks? How many folks are drawing a pension from the city of SD? 100,000? 500,000? What’s the mean and standard deviation of their payouts?

Now of course that’s much less sensational and less fun to grouse about, but statistically more relevant I think.

I think we need to be careful when considering making policy decisions based on some small number of folks we want to “target”. That’s how you end up with things like the AMT.

[KSMountain]

I agree with you sdduude. I don’t like skulduggery with public money, nor kickbacks. And I don’t like unions, sorry.

I did like your dike example though. 🙂

I think if you take the top 20 folks in almost any endeavor, a cursory glance at their salaries would be surprising, and you might initially think they were shockingly unjustified. Imagine what the top 20 plastic surgeons make…

But isn’t this called “selection bias”? Of course the numbers were large, they were the top 20! What about all the rest of the folks? How many folks are drawing a pension from the city of SD? 100,000? 500,000? What’s the mean and standard deviation of their payouts?

Now of course that’s much less sensational and less fun to grouse about, but statistically more relevant I think.

I think we need to be careful when considering making policy decisions based on some small number of folks we want to “target”. That’s how you end up with things like the AMT.

[KSMountain]

I agree with you sdduude. I don’t like skulduggery with public money, nor kickbacks. And I don’t like unions, sorry.

I did like your dike example though. 🙂

I think if you take the top 20 folks in almost any endeavor, a cursory glance at their salaries would be surprising, and you might initially think they were shockingly unjustified. Imagine what the top 20 plastic surgeons make…

But isn’t this called “selection bias”? Of course the numbers were large, they were the top 20! What about all the rest of the folks? How many folks are drawing a pension from the city of SD? 100,000? 500,000? What’s the mean and standard deviation of their payouts?

Now of course that’s much less sensational and less fun to grouse about, but statistically more relevant I think.

I think we need to be careful when considering making policy decisions based on some small number of folks we want to “target”. That’s how you end up with things like the AMT.

[KSMountain]

I agree with you sdduude. I don’t like skulduggery with public money, nor kickbacks. And I don’t like unions, sorry.

I did like your dike example though. 🙂

I think if you take the top 20 folks in almost any endeavor, a cursory glance at their salaries would be surprising, and you might initially think they were shockingly unjustified. Imagine what the top 20 plastic surgeons make…

But isn’t this called “selection bias”? Of course the numbers were large, they were the top 20! What about all the rest of the folks? How many folks are drawing a pension from the city of SD? 100,000? 500,000? What’s the mean and standard deviation of their payouts?

Now of course that’s much less sensational and less fun to grouse about, but statistically more relevant I think.

I think we need to be careful when considering making policy decisions based on some small number of folks we want to “target”. That’s how you end up with things like the AMT.

[KSMountain]

[quote=deadzone]KSM, how do you see that the ability to pay for $1M houses gets easier with age? Given today’s culture, the only way that is true is due to inheritance.
[/quote]
Some folks accumulate savings. Some accumulate equity in previous homes. Some leverage one home to go into a nicer home maybe even if they shouldn’t. It’s not like they’re putting 0-10% down – they bring equity to the table. So they’re not paying the $7k/mo you quoted. Not everyone pays PMI and MR.

Folks have had time for their businesses to mature.

Folks get raises. Maybe someone starts at $40k a year and ends up at $150k a year or more.

They get married, and maybe their spouse makes good money too.

Or folks have worked in enough companies and finally had some stock options pay off. I know a guy that at his first 3 companies they were worthless, but at his last two, he did very very well.

Folks become senior managers and get better and better bonuses.

And yes there is inheritance.

DZ, let’s take Del Mar, west of the 5.

There are a lot of homes there. A lot of expensive homes. Who do you think lives in them?

In general they are not the least responsible and least accomplished among us. They are not the “typical” folks in today’s culture you seem to be focused on.

They are the more responsible, the more clever, the harder working, the more charismatic in some cases, the more ambitious, the better savers, the more “greedy” perhaps. They may have had the benefit of educated parents and a good upbringing that set a good example and set them off in a good direction, even though they haven’t inherited yet.

They are people who like nice things and are willing to work hard for them. I am excluding here crooks and inheritance. Some are professionals, some are executives. Some are business owners.

Do you think the supply of folks like that is now somehow depleted? For all time? Baloney.

Unemployment will not be at 10% for the rest of our lives, probably not even the next five years, in my opinion.

To tell you the truth, I am starting to see some “green shoots” the last few months. (To use an intentionally provocative phrase).

[KSMountain]

[quote=deadzone]KSM, how do you see that the ability to pay for $1M houses gets easier with age? Given today’s culture, the only way that is true is due to inheritance.
[/quote]
Some folks accumulate savings. Some accumulate equity in previous homes. Some leverage one home to go into a nicer home maybe even if they shouldn’t. It’s not like they’re putting 0-10% down – they bring equity to the table. So they’re not paying the $7k/mo you quoted. Not everyone pays PMI and MR.

Folks have had time for their businesses to mature.

Folks get raises. Maybe someone starts at $40k a year and ends up at $150k a year or more.

They get married, and maybe their spouse makes good money too.

Or folks have worked in enough companies and finally had some stock options pay off. I know a guy that at his first 3 companies they were worthless, but at his last two, he did very very well.

Folks become senior managers and get better and better bonuses.

And yes there is inheritance.

DZ, let’s take Del Mar, west of the 5.

There are a lot of homes there. A lot of expensive homes. Who do you think lives in them?

In general they are not the least responsible and least accomplished among us. They are not the “typical” folks in today’s culture you seem to be focused on.

They are the more responsible, the more clever, the harder working, the more charismatic in some cases, the more ambitious, the better savers, the more “greedy” perhaps. They may have had the benefit of educated parents and a good upbringing that set a good example and set them off in a good direction, even though they haven’t inherited yet.

They are people who like nice things and are willing to work hard for them. I am excluding here crooks and inheritance. Some are professionals, some are executives. Some are business owners.

Do you think the supply of folks like that is now somehow depleted? For all time? Baloney.

Unemployment will not be at 10% for the rest of our lives, probably not even the next five years, in my opinion.

To tell you the truth, I am starting to see some “green shoots” the last few months. (To use an intentionally provocative phrase).

[KSMountain]

[quote=deadzone]KSM, how do you see that the ability to pay for $1M houses gets easier with age? Given today’s culture, the only way that is true is due to inheritance.
[/quote]
Some folks accumulate savings. Some accumulate equity in previous homes. Some leverage one home to go into a nicer home maybe even if they shouldn’t. It’s not like they’re putting 0-10% down – they bring equity to the table. So they’re not paying the $7k/mo you quoted. Not everyone pays PMI and MR.

Folks have had time for their businesses to mature.

Folks get raises. Maybe someone starts at $40k a year and ends up at $150k a year or more.

They get married, and maybe their spouse makes good money too.

Or folks have worked in enough companies and finally had some stock options pay off. I know a guy that at his first 3 companies they were worthless, but at his last two, he did very very well.

Folks become senior managers and get better and better bonuses.

And yes there is inheritance.

DZ, let’s take Del Mar, west of the 5.

There are a lot of homes there. A lot of expensive homes. Who do you think lives in them?

In general they are not the least responsible and least accomplished among us. They are not the “typical” folks in today’s culture you seem to be focused on.

They are the more responsible, the more clever, the harder working, the more charismatic in some cases, the more ambitious, the better savers, the more “greedy” perhaps. They may have had the benefit of educated parents and a good upbringing that set a good example and set them off in a good direction, even though they haven’t inherited yet.

They are people who like nice things and are willing to work hard for them. I am excluding here crooks and inheritance. Some are professionals, some are executives. Some are business owners.

Do you think the supply of folks like that is now somehow depleted? For all time? Baloney.

Unemployment will not be at 10% for the rest of our lives, probably not even the next five years, in my opinion.

To tell you the truth, I am starting to see some “green shoots” the last few months. (To use an intentionally provocative phrase).

[Author]

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