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kev374
ParticipantThese guys say all is good
Participantwhich Toyota’s brakes are $750-800?? I got new brake pads AND brand new rotors for my Nissan Frontier pickup for $350 installed!
Participant$1300 for brakes?? Oh my lord! This is the definition of insanity. This is the reason I say German cars are fantastic to drive but impractical to own. If you feel the itch to drive one just rent one but own a Japanese make.
ParticipantHow about the 2014 Subaru Forester? it’s 24/32 and has plenty of space. I have heard that diesels are pretty expensive to maintain, especially with the German marques so any savings in fuel is quickly eaten up in other costs.
Participantwent to a couple open houses today and spoke to a few Realtors who did mention that in the past couple of months prices as well as demand are softening. Supposedly over $500k market is quite slow…the house that I saw at $575,000 has been on the market for 2 months.
ParticipantSK, I think the low inventory is being caused due to banks holding on to their stock of foreclosed homes. I know many people who are saying that houses around them are vacant and sitting idle and not for sale…bank owned.
My personal belief is this:
Banks have a HUGE number of assets on their balance sheet at very inflated valuations, they cannot sell these houses bulk because if they did there would be Armageddon….literally! Perhaps the entire banking sector itself would collapse. Washington knows this as well hence QE infinity etc.
For this reason inventory is being released at a snails pace, WHILE, there are secret efforts (banking+political) to re-start easy money policies – FHA/government backed programs – to further bid up prices. The inventory will then change hands to these poor suckers who buy the houses and then subsequently foreclose when they cannot make payments – the tab will go to the taxpayer.
It will all be labeled in 2017 as a tragic affair and how everyone should pull together and pitch in to save the economy by paying a special tax – ala Greece.
The banking cartels meanwhile will be laughing all the way to the “bank”…LOL!
Participantmore bubble talk, this time by the Chicago Tribune:
http://www.chicagotribune.com/classified/realestate/sc-cons-0425-umberger-20130425,0,3011197.column
it’s amazing that even the press who are usually cheerleaders are skeptical of this sudden rise to the roof in prices!
ParticipantShiller nailed it in this latest video:
In the past housing was viewed simply as a place to live in, now the they way houses are viewed has completely changed. Houses are now a “speculative asset” as Shiller called it, speculated on like stocks from professional investors to armchair investors alike. The result? Huge amount of volatility with spectacular booms and busts.
ParticipantYou should realize that there have been interesting articles in the press lately about investor enthusiasm dying down slowly. Do you know that rents are actually deflating now because there are simply too many rentals and it’s expected to get worse. Think about it logically, when rental supply increases rents WILL go down, this in turn causes investments to generate lower returns.
When investments generate lower returns the urge to cash out accumulated equity increases and people start dumping their properties. This dumping starts a deflationary cycle leading to even more dumping and even lower prices.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2013/04/05/housing-rentals-investors/
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505145_162-57577568/investors-cooling-on-housing-market/
A mania cannot be sustained forever, this is common sense…eventually things cool off, some investors will get out in time and make a killing at the expense other POOR SOULS who thought paying half a million dollars for a dump in a blue collar neighborhood was a good idea!!!
The only shame is that these POOR SOULS will go crying to the government about how they are suffering because they are now losing their homes. They did not bother to use a thing called “Reason” that would’ve told them that an entry level house in a middle class neighborhood with teachers and accountants living in it should not cost half a million dollars!
Participantthe phrase “this time is different” is the signature chant of a bubble. I have heard this in every single boom/bust cycle in the past. You can believe whatever you wish, I and many others have different opinions and we shall agree to disagree!
ParticipantSee the documentary “Mind over Money” (search on Youtube) – it’s quite a fascinating look at how the bubble/bust cycle is in our psychology and how there is vehement denial during the bubble phase and then the eventual bust – it’s a pattern that’s repeated again and again and again due to irrational behavior exhibited in the rush to make money – the sentiment is everyone is onboard this train making money, I should join too. But in reality there is a saturation point at which the whole thing comes out of gear and falls apart.
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]
What does this “mania” tell you? Do you think a principal residence for yourself (and possibly your family) is going to get any cheaper in the OC in the coming years?[/quote]Tells me that it is a speculative mania and history tells us those always end very badly.
Yes, I believe there is a speculative bubble and it will pop. Unfortunately there are so many artificial parameters right now propping up the market, those can’t last forever…the higher the market goes the bigger the crash.
I will only believe in a recovery if wages grow and unemployment falls significantly. Without these developments the real estate market recovery is all smoke and mirrors.
Let me ask YOU – why is the speculative sentiment that prices will keep rising now any different from 2000-2006? At that time people like you were also saying the same exact thing – that prices will keep rising ad infinitum. People like you were proved very wrong in the last bust, why should this time be any different?
Participantbest to stay out of this market as it’s a mania right now and it is very dangerous to get caught up in these kinds of manias.
I saw a listing on Thursday, called the Realtor, he told me I needed to put in an offer for 15% over asking by Saturday and I can see the house from the outside only. WTF? Are these people crazy?
So, this house was sold on Saturday for 100% full cash at 20% over asking by someone who did not even care to see the inside…per the Realtor. Oh, and there were 45 bids on the property and it was priced at $250 sqft in La Habra, CA.
Participant[quote=desmond]
“Two- thirds of student loans are held by people under the age of 40, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, blocking millions of them from taking advantage of the most affordable housing market on record”[/quote]This is just asinine! most affordable housing market on record?? You’ve got to be kidding me!
One cannot find anything decent under half a million these days which is probably 6X-8X the median income compared with a historic 3X-4X and they’re calling it the most affordable? In addition job security is much much lower these days than it was in the past.
Now, people will tout historic low interest rates but the average homeowner stays in their home 7-10 years and then what? 7-10 years down the road interest rates are most certainly going to be much much higher. So you’re going to by a 100% overvalued home at low interest rates, your monthly payment may be the same but what happens when you need to sell in 7-10 yrs to move up? Or perhaps people think they will live in the same home for 30 years? This whole low interest rate argument is the most foolish thing I have ever heard yet people still blindly chant it.
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