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September 4, 2007 at 12:35 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83300
JWM in SD
ParticipantResponse from Diane Wedner:
from “Wedner, Diane”
to
date Sep 4, 2007 10:24 AM
subject RE: from Diane Wedner, Los Angeles TimesHi J***,
That wasn’t my opinion—it was a Q&A. I asked (I like to think I DO know which questions to ask– :->); Mr. Baker answered. A lot of our readers agreed with him.
Always good to hear from you.
Best,
DianeParticipant“…but many people would still not listen. ”
Yes, and the recent posters coming here and asking about whether they should be buying right now are perfect examples of that.
Fools and their money……..
Participant“People that have owned for awhile are in great shape, maybe better than ever if they hadn’t taken money out of their homes, but young people are just dazed. They are thinking “timing, timing, timing” like no generation before them.”
Yes, Yes, Yes!!! This is exactly correct. This is why I responded to AN that I didin’t care about people who bought 18 years ago (assuming that they didn’t HELOC themselves into a bad position). They are irrelevent to some degree in this market.
Even though my wife and I make a lot of money relatively speaking we don’t have the equity cushion from having been in the right place at the right time. Any downpayment we have is CASH$$$ savings and you better believe I am gaurding that with my life because of how difficult it is save a lot money in the face of rising inflation and stagnant wages.
September 4, 2007 at 8:50 AM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83262Participant“Anyway, if you guys want to buy, go ahead. I’m done discussing this topic”
PW, I hear you. I’m quickly getting to the point where I don’t even want to bother warning people anymore. There seems to be a certain mindset with some people and they refuse to acknowledge the inherent risk in investing in Residential real estate right now.
September 4, 2007 at 8:48 AM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83261Participant“I agree that if your job is not secure and your salary is considered high relative to your position, then yes, housing price is the least of your worry.”
AN, my compensation is not high relative to my position, I’m fairly compensated given my relative position, but that compensation is high relative to the median HHI.
My point is not that overpaid people are in more jeopordy in a downturn (that is a given), but rather that companies will opt to downsize in general and it will get increasingly difficult to find high paying jobs period.
ParticipantThat is pretty brave using your real name.
Oh, and that comment about fraud not being significant…maybe in Iowa but not SoCal…It was and is SOP around here.
September 3, 2007 at 8:56 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83225Participant“AN, in the coming recession you may not have a job to buy anything. I predict that the venture capital that fueled SD tech companies will dry up.”
Precisely. That is why I wrote in my post from Saturday (Nostradumbass Strikes Back) that I don’t care about house prices anymore because that is the least of my concerns at the moment. My bigger concern is how to remain employed at a high salary…and I currently work at a well known SD Start Up company (featured on Good Morning America quite frequently).
September 3, 2007 at 4:10 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83185Participant“You’re giving up a lot of purchasing power for the benefit of owning now. So a paper loss is a REAL loss in opportunity.”
I think this is an important point that many people do not understand. You are gambling with your FUTURE INCOME stream!!! If I go out and buy a stock for cash and it loses money then I have only lost money saved and not my future earnings. If someone goes out and leverages too much in an overpriced stucco box then they have lost their future income stream and the use of that money!!! That is a very scary proposition in the face of a looming recession where employment could be even more volatile than it has been in the past several years.
All this garbage about how one is going to stay in that home for 20 to 30 years is absolute nonsense and completely unrealistic. How does anyone know for certain where they will be in 5 to ten years anymore given the nature of even professional employment nowadays???
Participant“If you get this property, will you have problem renting it out later? That’s my concern about it.”
Yes, now you are starting to get it. Not only will you have to compete on rent but there will also declining prices to deal with as well. Remember, you would also be competing with SFH rentals inland as well theoretically.
September 3, 2007 at 3:03 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83166ParticipantNicmm,
I would suggest you read the bubble primer more thoroughly before you ask about rent vs. buy. That subject has been beaten to death for two years now. Bottom line is that it is cheaper to rent than buy assuming a 20% downpayment and 30 yr fixed mortgage including the tax breaks.
ParticipantIMHO, the local SD MSM had a major conflict interest regarding the state of RE in SD and SoCal in general: Real Estate related Ad spending.
I arrived here in SD from Chicago back in the fall of 04 and was shocked at the amount of RE advertising going on here in SD and SoCal. I had never seen anything that so utterly saturated in the media as RE ads here in SD. It was no wonder that papers like the UT didn’t really start digging into this until recently, and too late in my opinion.
Not only was the media here saturated with RE garbage but so was / is the culture here as well. It was, and still is, like a mass housing psychosis that had permeated all levels of society here in SD. I remember getting weird looks when I would ask how people could afford 10 to 11 times income for crappy stucco boxes that wouldn’t last one winter in Chicago. No one had substantive answer for me beyond “it is California, we have nice weather here…”. That is how I found Piggington. It lead me to scour the internet trying to figure out what the hell was going on because none of it made any sense to me.
September 3, 2007 at 2:28 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83156Participant“I found many posts here sound just like yours – Why giving in to your wife? Sounds bitter to me.”
And you are sounding an awful lot like an illiterate troll. I couldn’t even decipher what the hell you were saying from your last diatribe so I didn’t bother to respond to it.
Participant“Can you write to Diane Wednar (attaching her reply from last year) ? I’d be very interested in what her response would be.”
I already did this afternoon. I suspect I won’t hear back…people don’t like to admit when they are wrong.
September 2, 2007 at 6:32 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83050ParticipantPrecisely Rustico. I have gone to great pains to get people to understand that we are heading into a significant recession as a result of a massive credit bubble. There will economic turmoil over the next several years that can make all of the assumptions about the next 30 years irrelevant.
I’ve said it once and I will say it again: Too many posters here have a very SD centric / micro-economic perspective on what is happening right now. You need to start looking at the forest for the trees.
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