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JWM in SD
Participant“Nobody foresaw the bubble, almost nobody foresaw the downturn…”
Uhh, yeah actually we did….
ParticipantJust some friendly advice Lost Cat. You NEED to spend sometime at the following sites before wasting time with posts like this:
Calculated Risk
Mish Shedlock: Global Economic Analysis BlogAlso spend some time studying the economic theories on Inflation. Specifically causes and symptoms.
Luckliy, other posters here (specifically Bugs) poked enough holes in your assertions to give you things to ponder.
It is posts like these that drive me to harp so much about connecting the micro to macro economic picture. SD RE is not an economic island unto itself.
ParticipantThere is no protection against fraud unfortunately.
ParticipantNO, it’s not too tight. It’s tightening up to squeeze out the excess which will take a few years.
Participant“Rents are on the rise. Has anyone done any analysis as to when they believe rents will equal or come close to housing costs?”
Umm, what exactly do you base this on? Hopefully it is not some BS from the NAR.
“everyone is waiting for this magic day when everyone should get back in. All I am saying is, there isn’t a magic day and you can’t wait for the market. If you wait to hear that it is turned up, then it is too late already, don’t you agree?”
I agree that there is not a magic day. However, you are not talking about buying a BioTech stock here that could gap up $5 in one day. RE just doesn’t move that fast so there is more ability to time this than in stocks. The trick is in keeping a pulse on what is happening and these blogs help tremendously with that.
Participant“With inflation rising, i just can’t see today’s prices looking out of touch or even expensive in 5 years from now.
I am sure this will stir a lot of debate. I am looking forward to comments. Righ or wrong, it’s the forever on going debate that this site continually sidesteps.”
No, actually this has been discussed many times already and you are just rehashing a tire old subject.
No V recovery and sure as hell not starting in 2008. Have you seen the reset graph???
Inflation? Maybe in commodity prices but not in credit driven asset prices like oh I don’t know….housing!!!
ParticipantFLU,
who is your response directed at?
ParticipantUhh, earth to Raybyrnes. Those are all taxpayer subsidized jobs. Who the F*** do you think is paying their salaries???????? ME!! and the other guys in the private sectors that don’t have job security!!! I guess we should all work for the gov’t…oh but wait that would be communism now wouldn’t it.
Come on people, wake the f*** up already.
ParticipantLots of disparity in those prices per sq/ft. Are these sellers idiots or are they ignorant to the fact that people can look these prices up online now???
Participant“Yes; but the idea is from an old Candid Camera show where a bank teller prints out fresh currency, (saying it is the latest technology) to a dumbstruck customer.”
There is a certain amount of bitter irony in that visual considering the situation we are in with regard to inflation.
Participant“I have a solution! FED should design a proprietary laser printer and sell it for a low price. Insert your paycheck and it will print out n times that much currency. n is of course carefully controlled by FED and is sent to your printer on a secure encrypted link!”
You’re an engineer aren’t you?
Participant“The liquidity central bankers have injected into the system so far has been poorly targeted and hasn’t run to where it’s actually needed.”
Also known as pushing on a string. It’s the reason why hard money inflation won’t work…the FED can’t control where the $ ends up at and it would have to end up in your wages to make a difference. Anyone here want to gamble that hyperinflation makes its way into your paycheck??? I don’t….
Participant“That said, as AN pointed out, long term (really long term) 20+ years, you’ll likely come out ahead, depending on what you buy and provided you only look at the house. Would you be better served buying a little further down? Maybe to probably. How much better is open to speculation.”
In my opinion, that assumption could be driving with the rearview mirror and extremely dangerous right now. We are headed into uncharted territories. The last time the macroeconomic picture for the US looks it does now was in the late 1920’s. To me, the probability of the long term RE hold has diminshed somewhat in the past couple of years and I’d rather wait it out to see what happens.
September 4, 2007 at 1:29 PM in reply to: cannot wait anymore, buying a condo now instead of a house at 4S Ranch, and wait to buy a bigger house later? #83308Participant“I don’t agree with your view of the economy going into a depression, so my view point is a little different than yours.”
I’m not sure that we are heading into a depression or not. However, I am quite certain that we will have a severe recession at the very least given current macro-economic conditions. I’m mostly acknowldging the possibility of it happening since the conditions for it have manifested themselves in the past two years and made the probability higher than it has been in the past 50 years or so.
Those professions will remain recession proof only until the businesses that hire remain profitable enough.
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