Forum Replies Created
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September 6, 2007 at 8:19 PM in reply to: San Diego Inventories flat year over year . . . other southwest/Calif. markets all higher. Why? Is SD near a bottom? #83659September 6, 2007 at 2:26 PM in reply to: San Diego Inventories flat year over year . . . other southwest/Calif. markets all higher. Why? Is SD near a bottom? #83627
JWM in SD
Participant“There is some very good information from some very sound reasoned persons. The problem I think is that aside from this group (the sound reasoned group) there is a healthy group of what I think of as the Piggington “sour grapes crowd” which is to say people who either 1) missed the last boom entirely and are bitter and hoping for a catastrophic decline to rectify their poor judgement of the past, or 2) people who either weren’t financially in a posistion to buy during the early stages of the boom or people (like me) who moved to SD towards the end of the boom and lament this coming to the party late.”
Last I checked, this is a free site. You get what you pay for (in your case, you got more). Don’t like it, then don’t post.
Participant“. Instead, why don’t we use the money intended to bail out these folks and just give a refund to every tax paying individual?”
Because that would be hyperinflation and that would be bad…very bad…like Weimer Bad.
Participant“Been on this site for about 2 or 3 years now. I got it, get it and understand it and saw it coming too. Just like everyone on this site (or the majority). Crap, we all were talking about this on Sept 11, 2001. ”
Based on the kinds of questions you ask and your arguments, I highly doubt that.
September 6, 2007 at 11:11 AM in reply to: Avoiding jumbo loans– 2 conforming loans mortgage option? #83587ParticipantWell, well, looks who’s back.
Participant“JWM you’re freaking egotist. Get off the fact that you knew it was coming and that you predicted it. Everyone on this site has that figured out. That’s not what this site is for. You’re such a topper. I have a site for you to check out:
http://www.I-predicted-it-b-4-u.com
It’s a great site. It’s where a bunch of guys chat and talk about how they called it out first. You’d fit in well there. Have fun.
JWM AKA “THE TOPPER”
LostCat,
I was one of the original purveyors of this site..I even subscribed to it briefly when Toscano experimented with that. I’ve been monitoring this situation one way or another since spring of 2004 when I found out that I was going to have to move to San Diego from Chicago and would need to sell my t-house and decide on living arrangements in SD.
I can’t help the fact that this is news to you. I’ve devoted hundreds if not thousands of hours to this issue because of it’s implications. Have you????
Participant“For those of you who have been posting that you believe we are near the bottom and you’re thinking of buying a home in SD within the next few months…………is this news a wake-up call for you?”
You’re starting to sound like me….
No, it’s not a wake-up call for them because they still don’t know how to connect the dots from the macro to the micro. If you want proof, look at the recent post from lostcat.
Participant“Talking about Country Fried, did you also catch the bottom when it hit 13-ish and bounced back hard to 20+ before pulling back to 18+ now? How about LEND when it bottomed out around 3 pop to 13+, bottom again @ 4 and now back to 10+? Man, if only my crystal ball was working at the time, I’d be buying my island by now :-D.”
I didn’t short it, but rather bought long term $25 puts that quadrupled in value from original investment after having lost 2/3 of their value (bought too early). I didnt invest more than I was willing to lose though so I’m not a millionaire as result.
Nobody should beat themselves over not having become rich over this. Although it was predictable, the market was not behaving rationally and should have cratered 2 mos earlier than it did.
September 6, 2007 at 7:17 AM in reply to: San Diego Inventories flat year over year . . . other southwest/Calif. markets all higher. Why? Is SD near a bottom? #83537ParticipantNice try schizo2buyORnot but you are going to have to do better than that.
Participant“Shouldn’t you be @ some beach sipping maitai now instead of being on piggington like us average folks who can’t seem to call tops & bottoms for the life of us?”
Predicting and risking money are two different things. Anyone who bet on bearishness too early would have been burned at the stake in the markets.
I did however make a nice bundle on Country Fried though 😉
Participant“However, like anything in life, it’s unpredictable in many ways and your argument will be just as good as anyone’s until after the fact and history has been written.”
No, actually it was quite predictable and painfully so for a lot of the original housing bears.
ParticipantWas that the guy (Troy) from the original Apprentice??
ParticipantAN,
Although PS is a controversial figure here, it wasn’t her that I was drawing a conclusion from, but rather the article she posted and the timeframe of her post as some degree of objective evidence.
It was pretty interesting to revisit the posts from 18+ mos ago. Quite a contrast from what we are seeing now.
ParticipantClosest Post I could find on short notice…from…drum roll please…none other than Powayseller herself:
Deceiving Data for North County Sales
User Forum Topic
Submitted by powayseller on December 13, 2005 – 6:46pm.
The latest data from the NAR seems to indicate that the housing market is robust, but if you look deeper, you find that speculators are fleeing the market.From the North County Times:
“Detached home prices up 14 percent from year agoBy: BRADLEY J. FIKES – Staff Writer
NORTH COUNTY —- Defying warnings that a real estate bubble is about to deflate, the median price of existing single-family homes in North County rose significantly in November”….
Actually, the bubble is deflating. Later in the article, a realtor is speculating about the reasons for the higher median home price: investors, who buy lower-priced properties to flip, have fled the market.
The numbers show 30% more listings, and 20% fewer sales (compared y-o-y). Put that together, and you have a much smaller percentage of available homes sold: 50% of listings sold this year, vs. almost 100% last year.
If we look around at signs and talk to friends, we find out that houses are on the market much longer, with multiple reductions.
Does anyone have data on the sales price/original list price, or the # of reductions on sales price?
ParticipantIt may not have been on this blog in particular, but rather on the Ben Jones blog. At that time, I was more active there than here. I’ll look for it….
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